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FinalTottenham Hotspur Stadium · London
Crystal Palace
0–2Final
Tottenham Hotspur
Score by period
Team12T
CRYS000
TOTT112

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 2.5 44¢

Why Bench Boss likes it: Palace has 3 rest days plus fixture congestion versus Tottenham's 7; the away side's press and rotation should shorten.

Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-9 on this game · +9% return

  1. Total goals under 2.55 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsBench Boss, Early Whistle +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • Palace has 3 rest days plus fixture congestion versus Tottenham's 7; the away side's press and rotation should shorten.
    • Tottenham's 10-match home profile is 61.6% field tilt and 10.18 PPDA; Palace's away profile is 44.5% field tilt and 13.01 PPDA.
    • Most likely loss: an early goal creates a chase, exposing Palace's 1.69 away xGA and producing a third goal.
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates blend to roughly 1.40 Tottenham goals and 1.25 Palace goals.
    • Model lambdas are 1.44 home and 1.10 away; its under-2.5 probability is 53.2%.
    • The blended-rate estimate is near 2.6 goals, so a three-goal match loses this under.
    XI Delta
    • Palace's posted XI makes 9 changes from its confirmed Fulham XI three days earlier, a major continuity and attacking-rhythm hit.
    • Maddison is on Tottenham's bench despite the overnight expected XI listing him as a starter; the lineup report landed at 9:19 PT.
    • A 2.63-goal baseline is only a model proxy; two early goals erase the edge quickly.
    Long Haul
    • confirmed rest gap is 7 days for Tottenham versus 3 for Palace, with Palace flagged congested; the 4-day disadvantage is the decay pillar.
    • Both XIs were confirmed at 9:20am PDT, so the short-rest read is not being applied to an unverified lineup.
    • Palace's short rest may create defensive mistakes rather than suppress attack, while Tottenham's seven-day rest supports finishing quality.
  2. Crystal Palace to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTeam Sheet, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet
    • Confirmed XI observed 2026-10-31 09:20 PDT; Xavi Simons is absent, with 0.59 xG/90.
    • Palace contract's last price change was 2026-10-31T07:00:00Z; XI news was 2026-10-31T16:20:00Z.
    • Simons' absence was already listed on 2026-10-24; the confirmed XI may add little new information.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Palace leads the pregame Elo rating by 21 points and owns the higher away opponent-adjusted xG-for rate, 1.39.
    • Confirmed lineups include Jean-Philippe Mateta and Dean Henderson for Palace; Tottenham has three listed outs.
    • Tottenham has a four-day rest advantage and stronger home territorial numbers: 61.6% field tilt versus Palace's 41.5%.
  3. Under 2.5 Total Goals2 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil Pairs
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Tottenham home 1.33 for / 1.10 against; Palace away 1.39 for / 1.47 against.
    • Both XIs are expected, not confirmed, as of 2:00am; a late striker or goalkeeper change could move the goal rates.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-31 9:39 AM PDT; confirmed XIs were refreshed at 9:20 AM PDT.
    • Crystal Palace has three rest days versus Tottenham's seven; fatigue can create late-goal variance.
  4. Crystal Palace winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Crystal Palace's confirmed XI is priced into the pre-kickoff review; model coverage is complete with 10 xG matches per side.
    • Pinnacle home price moved from -155 to -140, and ProphetX home probability fell from 60.0% to 58.0%, both moving toward Palace.
    • Draw probability is 27.5% in the model, so a stalemate loses this Palace-only contract.
  5. Crystal Palace +1 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
  6. Draw 0-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home is Tottenham Hotspur; model key 0-0 is the contract “Draw 0-0”.
    • Coverage is 10 xG matches per side; live-subset mid sum is 69.5c.
    • Exact-score variance is high; 0-0 loses to any goal.
Show all 12 picks
  1. DrawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +300 on FanDuel

    Zonal DecayDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Draw-mispricing pillar: PPDA 10.18 Tottenham / 13.01 Palace and field tilt .616/.415 support a competitive draw path at +300.
    • Venue-matched xG comparison: Tottenham home 1.25 xGF/1.26 xGA versus Palace away 1.38/1.69, with 10 xG matches for each side.
    • Confirmed XIs were posted at 9:20 AM PDT; Tottenham has 7 rest days, Palace 3, with Palace's congestion flag true after its Oct. 28 match.
    • Palace's 1.38 away xGF and Tottenham's 1.26 home xGA leave a credible away-goal path; an early goal can break the draw state.
  2. Total goals under 3.5Favorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live score is Tottenham 1-0 at 39'; under 3.5 needs three or more additional goals.
    • Tottenham PPDA 10.18 and field tilt .616 versus Palace 13.01 and .415 provide mixed secondary tempo signals.
  3. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tottenham scoring read 77.9%, 1.33 oppadj xG-for versus Palace's 1.69 xG-against; 10-match coverage.
    • Crystal Palace scoring read 73.4%, 1.39 oppadj xG-for versus Tottenham's 1.26 xG-against; 10-match coverage.
    • Symmetric BTTS case: both sides clear roughly 73% to score, rather than one weak attacker facing a strong defense.
    • Both teams' xG coverage is only 10 matches, so one unusual finishing or defensive stretch can dominate the estimate.
  4. Crystal Palace spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Tottenham 1.44 and Crystal Palace 1.10; Tottenham win by 2+ is 0.22.
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Tottenham xGF/xGA 1.33/1.10; Palace xGF/xGA 1.39/1.47; xG coverage is 10 matches per side.
    • Season/competition sample: 80 Premier League matches; home teams won by 2+ in 18/80 (22.5%), close to the model's 21.9%.
    • no independent sharp quote exists at the exact -1.5 rung; Pinnacle's -0.75 line is off-rung and cannot validate this price.
  5. Crystal Palace draw no betLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +265 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings +265 needs only 27.4% of non-draw outcomes to win; model conditional Palace win rate is 38.8%.
    • Palace leads on opponent-adjusted xG for, 1.39 to Tottenham's 1.33; the model also makes Palace the stronger overall side by Elo.
    • Tottenham's home form is 3-3-4 for 12 points; Palace's away form is 4-2-4 for 14 points.
    • Palace has only three rest days and a fixture-congestion flag versus Tottenham's seven rest days.
  6. BTTS No
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The four-match head-to-head sample averages 2.0 total goals and has produced BTTS in only 25% of meetings.
    • Tottenham has scored 14 goals in 10 home-form matches; Palace has scored 17 in 10 away-form matches, supporting a modest no-BTTS angle.
    • This is a thin edge: the model is near a coin flip, so ordinary finishing variance dominates.

Questions

Who won Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham Hotspur?

Tottenham Hotspur won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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