FinalVitality Stadium · Bournemouth
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEED | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AFC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAFC Bournemouth spread −1 33¢
Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Confirmed XI and directional check pass: Bournemouth's recent form is 5-0 in its last five, xG rates are 2.14 versus Leeds 1.52, and defensive xGA is 0.70 versus 1.19.
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 11-1 on this game · +222% return
- AFC Bournemouth spread −1+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- Confirmed XI and directional check pass: Bournemouth's recent form is 5-0 in its last five, xG rates are 2.14 versus Leeds 1.52, and defensive xGA is 0.70 versus 1.19.
- Moderate coverage only: 10 xG-backed matches per side, not the brief's deep 20-game tier; the rate estimates may be noisy.
Long Haul- independent-Poisson read from covered lambdas 1.84 home and 0.79 away gives Bournemouth by 2+ about 36.6%.
- Both XIs remain expected, not confirmed; lineup changes could materially alter the lambda-based projection.
- Both teams to score NO+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse model: BTTS No 53.5% versus the 44¢ Kalshi No-side cost.
- Bournemouth's opponent-adjusted xG against is 0.70 at home, while the model assigns Leeds only 0.79 expected goals.
- The Kalshi Yes side is offered at 57¢, implying the market leans strongly toward both teams scoring.
Both Nets- At 30' and 0-0, remaining scoring reads are Bournemouth 69.5% and Leeds 54.2%; BTTS-NO baseline is 62.3%.
- Asymmetric live case: Leeds' 1.52 oppadj xGF faces Bournemouth's 0.82 xGA; Bournemouth's 2.14 attack is the stronger side.
- One goal from each side loses; Bournemouth's 2.14 oppadj xGF and Leeds' 1.42 xGA keep that path live.
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3.60 combined xG proxy from the feature model, materially above the 2.5-goal line.
- Rose's space-oriented gegenpressing attacks Leeds' high build and higher defensive line, creating turnover-transition chances.
- Farke explicitly wants Leeds to sustain high intensity and relentlessness for 90 minutes, increasing late-game transition volatility.
- Bournemouth have won five straight without conceding, evidence Rose's structure can suppress rather than inflate scoring.
- AFC Bournemouth win+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bournemouth’s 10-match form is 7-1-2, versus Leeds’ 3-5-2; goals are 23-9 versus 14-12.
- Elo favors Bournemouth by 121.2 points; home field tilt is .602 versus Leeds’ .444.
- Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed; the warehouse lists Mateo Joseph, Alex Scott, Julián Araujo and Veljko Milosavljevic out.
- AFC Bournemouth wins 2-0+1150%Won
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is AFC Bournemouth; model key 2-0 is the contract “AFC Bournemouth wins 2-0.”
- Lambda is 1.84 home and 0.79 away; 2-0 ranks second in the model top-k.
- The exact score wins only on 2-0; every other final loses the contract.
- Total goals under 2.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi's raw Over 2.5 yes_bid was 0.49 (fraction), and the current buy-under price is 0.52/52c.
- At the live 40' snapshot Bournemouth lead 1-0, so under 2.5 allows at most one further goal.
- Opponent-adjusted xG gives Bournemouth 1.67 expected goals and Leeds 1.11, for a pre-match total of 2.78; scaling the remaining 50 minutes implies about 2.54 final goals and roughly 54% under 2.5.
- This is a live conditional estimate built from pre-match xG, linear time scaling, and a Poisson-like assumption rather than a live xG model.
Show all 10 picks
- Total goals under 3.5+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bournemouth’s 3-day rest and fixture-congestion flag should shorten Marco Rose’s press and suppress sustained tempo.
- Bournemouth’s 10-game home style shows 10.66 passes allowed per defensive action and .602 field tilt; Leeds away is .444 field tilt.
- Confirmed XIs were posted at 7:13am PDT, clearing the personnel gate with no unresolved rotation or scratch issue.
- Most likely loss: an early Bournemouth goal forces Leeds into a chase and creates the fourth goal.
- AFC Bournemouth to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Bournemouth 2.14 for / 0.70 against; Leeds is 1.52 / 1.19 away.
- Bournemouth is 7-1-2 at home with a +14 goal difference; Leeds is 3-5-2 away with +2.
- Both starting XIs were confirmed at 6:50 AM, reducing the largest pregame identity risk.
- Bournemouth has only three rest days versus Leeds's six, and six home players are listed sidelined.
- AFC Bournemouth regular-time spread −1+223%Won
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days - AFC Bournemouth spread −1.5+335%Won
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles inputs are λhome 1.84, λaway 0.79, ρ -0.05; the exact-rung λ cross-check puts Bournemouth margin ≥2 at approximately 36.6%.
- 2026-27 Premier League sample: 18 of 80 home teams won by 2+, while 10 of 80 won by 3+; the matchup projection is above the broad baseline but respects lumpy scoring.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; listed absences and substantial offseason personnel changes could make the λ inputs stale.
Questions
Who won Leeds United vs. AFC Bournemouth?
AFC Bournemouth won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.