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FinalAnfield · Liverpool
Arsenal
1–0Final
Liverpool
Score by period
Team12T
ARS101
LIV000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arsenal over 1.5 goals 55¢

Why Team Sheet likes it: TIMING · Bukayo Saka confirmed out at 7:31am PT; his recorded xG/90 is 0.72.

Team SheetDown 1% this season · 75 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-9 on this game · +5% return

  1. Arsenal to win4 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    4 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Arsenal's pre-match xG profile is 2.04 for / 0.95 against versus Liverpool's 1.74 / 1.39.
    • Pinnacle and exchange movement has run toward Arsenal: Liverpool home probability fell from roughly 33.5% to 30.5%.
    • The feature row was computed through October 28, so it is not fully lineup-aware; confirmed XI news includes Saka and Saliba out for Arsenal.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model: Arsenal win probability 56.2%, versus 43.5% implied at FanDuel +130.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Arsenal 2.24 to 1.81; away xGA is 0.81 versus Liverpool's 1.17.
    • Liverpool's home advantage and 8-1-1 home record can overwhelm Arsenal's rating edge.
    Long Haul
    • Model lambdas favor Arsenal 1.89 to 1.06; away opponent-adjusted xG differential is +1.43 versus Liverpool's +0.64 at home.
    • the same board lists Arsenal to win in 90 minutes at +164; that related market supports the away lean but is not independent reference.
    • Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed, so late rotation or a scratch can change the projection.
    Number Earned
    • 54.0% fair win probability versus 44.4% DraftKings break-even; fair line approximately -117.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Arsenal 2.24 to 1.81 for; defensive xGA favors Arsenal 0.81 to 1.17.
    • Liverpool are at home and still have 8-1-1 home form in the sample; the warehouse model is materially more bullish than the market.
  2. Total goals over 2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Early Whistle
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
      • The 10-match xG sample on each side is below the desk's 12-match top-confidence tier; the 3.02 mean has meaningful early-season uncertainty.
      Early Whistle
      • Model goal rates are Liverpool 1.05 and Arsenal 1.88, a 2.93-goal total.
      • Opponent-adjusted rates are strong: Liverpool 1.79 xGF/1.17 xGA and Arsenal 2.24 xGF/0.81 xGA per match.
      • Bukayo Saka is listed sidelined for Arsenal; that can materially reduce the away attack and invalidate the pre-lineup rate estimate.
    • Liverpool to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +215 on DraftKings

      Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liverpool enter on a five-match winning streak with 15 goals, supporting Iraola's aggressive front-foot approach.
      • Current tactical preview identifies Liverpool's press and quick transitions as a direct way to attack Arsenal's high line and pace weakness.
      • Confirmed XI gives Liverpool Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak against an Arsenal side missing Saka and Saliba.
      • Arsenal's feature profile is stronger: 56.2% away model probability and 0.69 field tilt versus Liverpool's 0.52.
    • Arsenal @ Liverpool 10+ cornersLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi

      Corner FlagDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION. Base mean is 11.7 corners (Liverpool 6.4 + Arsenal 5.3); territory/style/live adjustments produce 12.3.
      • REFERENCE. Six corners were recorded by 34', including five for Liverpool while trailing 0-1; the chase state supports the upper tail but does not remove the model’s 24% NO outcome.
      • Liverpool chasing after halftime can create a late corner burst and invalidate the NO.
    • Arsenal over 1.5 goals
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • TIMING · Bukayo Saka confirmed out at 7:31am PT; his recorded xG/90 is 0.72.
      • PROJECTION · Arsenal lambda moves from 1.89 to 1.16 after subtracting Saka's xG/90; 0-1 goals is approximately 67.7%.
      • Arsenal can still score twice; Kai Havertz starts and the xG subtraction is not a full tactical model.
    • Under 1.5 1H goals scoredFavorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

      Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The full ladder is clean at 92.5%, 76.5%, 50.5%, 28.5%, 14.5%, 5.5%; quoted-tail sum gives mean 2.68.
      • 37 recent Premier League fixtures produced 32 first-half and 58 second-half goals; measured first-half share is 35.6%.
      • Applying that split to 2.68 gives a reconciled 1H mean of 0.95; the 1H quote is high by 0.25 goals and implies over 1.5 near 24.8%.
      • The 2H total ladder is not fit: all three quoted rungs have 6-9 cent spreads, so it is a weak constraint only.
    Show all 13 picks
    1. Arsenal wins 1st Half
      +233%Won

      Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

      Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Scaled first-half lambdas are Liverpool 0.46 and Arsenal 0.82; model Arsenal margin probability is 40.8%.
      • Pinnacle first-half prices 216/251/131 devig to 30.6% Arsenal, confirming the rung and leaving model upside.
      • Pinnacle's 30.6% fair probability is materially below the warehouse model; the model may be overstating Arsenal's first-half edge.
    2. Both Teams To Score
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

      Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liverpool scoring read: 74.8% from 1−e^−((1.81 oppadj xGF + 0.95 Arsenal xGA)/2); 10 xG matches.
      • Arsenal scoring read: 83.8% from 1−e^−((2.24 oppadj xGF + 1.39 Liverpool xGA)/2); 10 xG matches.
      • Symmetric both-sides-high case: both independent scoring reads exceed 74%, not one attacker inflating a total.
      • Arsenal's 0.95 xGA is the tighter defensive input; a Liverpool clean sheet makes YES lose despite a strong Arsenal scoring read.
    3. Arsenal FC wins 2-0Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

      ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • home is Liverpool; model key 0-2 maps to contract “Arsenal FC wins 2-0”.
      • Top-k coverage is direct; min_gp_with_xg is 10 and the model passes monotonicity checks.
      • Exact-score variance is high; Arsenal 1-0 and 2-1 are also top-k outcomes.
    4. Arsenal over 3.5 total goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG supports the high tail: Liverpool 1.81 for / 1.17 against; Arsenal 2.24 / 0.81.
      • Four regular-time goals are required; the estimated edge is only about 1.7 percentage points, so variance dominates.
    5. Arsenal wins by more than 2.5 goalsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 27 sample: 213 of 241 matches finished within 0, 1, or 2 goals; the 3+ absolute-margin bucket was only 28/241 (11.6%), supporting a lumpy rather than smooth ladder.
      • Arsenal may protect the 1-0 lead, while Liverpool's home attack can erase the current margin; a final Arsenal win by one or two is the main failure path.
    6. Arsenal wins by more than 1.5 goalsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: λ Liverpool 1.06, Arsenal 1.89; 10 xG-backed matches each.
      • EPL 2026 sample: 0-goal margins 28.4%; home wins by 2 were 14.8%, supporting a lumpy ladder rather than smooth decay.
      • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Arsenal and Liverpool have substantial listed absences and roster turnover.
    7. Both teams to score No
      +135%Won

      Taken at +135 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 44.0% fair probability versus 42.6% DraftKings break-even; fair line approximately +127.
      • Warehouse BTTS model gives Yes 55.9%, leaving No at 44.1% before a modest lineup adjustment.
      • Arsenal's opponent-adjusted xGA is 0.81 per match, while its away form allows 9 goals in 10 matches.
      • Liverpool's home xG-for is 1.74 and Arsenal's away xG-for is 2.04; one goal from each side defeats the pick.

    Questions

    Who won Arsenal vs. Liverpool?

    Arsenal won 1-0 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

    Analysis

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