FinalMKM Stadium · Hull
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPSW | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| HULL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDraw (Tie) 29¢
Why Stalemate likes it: Control is balanced: PPDA gap 1.26 and field-tilt gap 2.1 points; neither side owns territory.
StalemateDown 85% this season · 17 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-8 on this game · −54% return
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- The 2.99-point projection gap favors the under; the nearby ladder implies roughly 2.7 goals.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; Ipswich projection is dated 10/26 and Hull's is dated 2:00am.
Deep Book- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-31 7:28:44 AM PDT. Confirmed XIs were posted at 6:52 AM PDT.
- The 4.9x size ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; this is a half-unit LEAN.
- Hull City to win−100%Lost
Taken at +195 on DraftKings
2 modelsNumber Earned, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Number Earned- Hull's home form: 3-4-3 with 18 venue-side points in 10 matches.
- Ipswich's away record is 4-1-5 with a -4 away goal difference.
- Hull has eight listed absences despite a confirmed XI; replacement quality may be overstated.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Hull’s home sample is 3-4-3 with 10 goals for and 10 against; Ipswich’s away sample is 4-1-5 with 17 for and 21 against.
- Both starting elevens were confirmed at 6:52am, reducing the largest pregame identity uncertainty.
- Hull has 11 sidelined players in the preview data, including eight listed outside the confirmed XI.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hull under Jakirović produced only 2 build-up attacks and 38.2 long passes per game in its first five.
- Hull recorded just 638 offensive touches, while O’Neil’s Ipswich uses a narrow, compact mid-block.
- Feature lambdas total 2.56 imply roughly 74.4% for under 3.5 before the tactical adjustment.
- Hull’s direct aerial game can create set-piece and second-ball goals despite low buildup.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed 6:52am PDT XI: Hull absences include Kieran Dowell at 0.38 xG/90 and Darko Gyabi at 0.36 xG/90.
- Hull XI attacking quality is 1.48 xG versus a 1.74 recent two-XI mean, a 14.7% shortfall.
- Kalshi last repricing was 2:08am PDT; confirmed XI news arrived 6:52am PDT. Timing test passed.
- Warehouse baseline BTTS-NO probability is 47.2%; the value depends on the lineup adjustment.
- Ipswich Town to win0%Push
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days - Draw (Tie)+245%Won
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
StalemateUp 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Control is balanced: PPDA gap 1.26 and field-tilt gap 2.1 points; neither side owns territory.
- My probabilities are Hull 34.8% / draw 30.6% / Ipswich 34.6%; Pinnacle +192/+233/+162 devigs to 33.4%/29.3%/37.3%.
- Most likely loss: Hull's unbeaten 4-6-0 home profile converts territorial pressure into a home win.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Hull 1.06 for/1.33 against; Ipswich 1.28 for/1.66 against; computed total 2.66.
- Kalshi Over 2.5 midpoint is 0.51, a Poisson-equivalent market mean of roughly 2.72 goals; my model is lower.
- Ten xG matches per side is adequate coverage but still a modest sample; one early goal creates substantial total-goals variance.
- Ipswich Town under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Hull 5-4-1 versus Ipswich 4-2-3-1 should compress central space and slow the match.
- Hull’s 40.5% and Ipswich’s 42.6% field tilt, plus 36.7%/43.5% recent possession, point to limited sustained territory.
- Pinnacle is 2.5 goals, over -103 / under -107; ProphetX under is only -102 after its over price drifted from 0.51 to 0.50.
- Most likely loss: an early goal forces the trailing side into a higher-tempo chase and produces a third goal.
- Hull City spread +1.5+19%Won
Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hull inputs: opp-adj xGF 1.06 versus Ipswich opp-adj xGA 1.66; lambda_home 1.30; 10 xG matches.
- Ipswich inputs: opp-adj xGF 1.28 versus Hull opp-adj xGA 1.33; lambda_away 1.26; 10 xG matches.
- Same-season distribution: 80 matches, away-by-2+ only 11 times (13.8%); integer-margin mass supports +1.5.
- No whole-goal push: 1.5 is a half-goal; an exact two-goal Ipswich win loses the NO contract.
Questions
Who won Ipswich Town vs. Hull City?
Hull City won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.