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Updated

FinalGreat American Ball Park
Cubs86-69
9-1
Reds72-83
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHC1040300109
CIN0001000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Cubs over 5.5 team runs 48¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: Confirmed Cubs lineup versus lefty David Peterson: current vs-L split shows .400 xwOBA and only 3.4% K over 29 PA.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-12 on this game · −52% return

  1. Cincinnati Reds run line +1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Peterson's current-game L5 line is 12.54 ERA across 18.67 IP; his TTO xwOBA rises from .3010 to .3041.
    • Reds' posted lineup clears the platoon gate versus LHP: .3395 xwOBA and .200 K rate, though the sample is only 20 PA.
    • The platoon split is extremely thin at 20 PA; the posted lineup can simply underperform its aggregate split.
    Deep Book
      • LEAN only. The 4.3x run-line ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
    • No 9th-inning draw
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US anchors imply roughly a 60.5% Cubs win probability and a 9.5-run game.
      • The 9.5 total is a 50/50 over-under anchor, consistent with a high-scoring rather than low-scoring environment.
      • Fitting 9.5 runs across nine innings gives about 1.06 runs per inning; the empirical MLB scoring shape puts an inning tie near 44%.
      • No independent sharp confirmation: Pinnacle's moneyline disagrees with the Polymarket US Cubs-favorite anchor, so this is venue self-reference.
    • Chicago Cubs–Cincinnati Reds first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal coherence: Polymarket US anchors price Cubs at 59.5c and the full-game total at 9.5, an elevated but not extreme scoring environment.
      • Historical MLB finals (2023, 26) average 9.1 runs, median 9, with 41.4% reaching 10+; the game anchor is already shifted toward the high tail.
      • A fitted first-five share of that run distribution, with starters receiving the lower-scoring allocation, puts Under 4.5 materially above the venue's 42c buy price.
      • First-five scoring share is inferred from the full-game anchor rather than directly observed for this matchup.
    • Chicago Cubs over 5.5 team runs
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Cubs lineup versus lefty David Peterson: current vs-L split shows .400 xwOBA and only 3.4% K over 29 PA.
      • Peterson is confirmed left-handed; current expected line is .337 xwOBA allowed and 4.86 xERA, not dominant suppression.
      • Only 29 PA in the current Cubs-v-lefty split; the matchup signal is highly sample-sensitive.
    • Will Banfield under 1.5 hitsFavorite
      +15%Won

      Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Banfield confirmed as Cincinnati's starting catcher, batting eighth, in the 9:50 AM PDT roster snapshot.
      • Cincinnati hit .100 versus left-handed pitching versus a .2207 split average, a 54.7% favorable gap for the under.
      • David Peterson is a confirmed left-handed starter; Banfield bats right-handed.
      • The Reds split is only 20 plate appearances and its .3395 xwOBA is above the .3116 split average.
    • Cincinnati Reds win the 8th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8th-inning draw is 0.57, versus 0.53 in the 6th and 0.52 in the 7th.
      • The full-game total is 9.5, with Over 9.5 at 0.50; the F5 total ladder is Over 4.5 at 0.61 and Over 5.5 at 0.48.
      • That run environment does not support the 8th as the board's most draw-heavy fully played inning; the missing scoring probability supports a winner side.
      • The venue's 8th-inning Cincinnati price is only 0.23, and the extra probability implied by the draw gap could belong to Chicago instead.
    Show all 16 picks
    1. Game total under 9.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.9 total runs, fair total line 9.0, Under 9.5 win probability 55.9%, push probability 0% (12:10 PM CDT release).
      • Cincinnati's 2026 offense is at a 90.3 wRC+ through the current snapshot, while both bullpens had zero same-day use.
      • Bullpen workload is manageable: Cincinnati 2.0 IP/42 pitches and Chicago 4.0 IP/64 pitches over the prior three days.
      • Rhett Lowder's 5.34 xERA and David Peterson's 4.86 xERA allow an early scoring path despite the model's lower mean.
    2. Rhett Lowder under 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +52%Won

      Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3.2-K projection: 5.4 L5 K/9 with 5.3 projected innings from an 85-pitch L3 average.
      • Confirmed Cubs lineup projects to 20.3% K versus right-handed pitching across 3,382 prior-season PA, a sub-22% contact-heavy matchup.
      • Rung comparison: 5+ NO preserves a 1.8-K projection cushion; 4+ NO is thinner, while 6+ NO costs 82¢. Peterson was passed because his 73.8 L5 pitches and 42/65 recent workload are less insulated.
      • Current-season Lowder arsenal and TTO tables are unpopulated; the projection relies on the live L5 board plus his 2024 six-start sample.
    3. No run in the 1st inning
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

      Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2025 first-inning scoring: Cubs 29.9% (47/157), Reds 30.6% (48/157).
      • David Peterson allowed a first-inning run in 9 of 30 2025 starts; opponents hit .181 over 114 first-inning PA.
      • Rhett Lowder allowed 0 first-inning runs in 6 2024 starts, with 3 hits allowed in 17 first-inning PA.
      • Lowder's 0-for-6 first-inning record is a very small sample and regresses materially toward league average.
    4. Rhett Lowder over 3.5 pitching strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −109 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7 of Lowder's last 10 appearances cleared 3.5 strikeouts.
      • Last-10 hit-rate model is 70% versus 52.2% implied at DraftKings −109: approximately 17.8 percentage points of value.
      • Lowder is the posted Cincinnati probable and is listed active on the current roster.
      • The recent 10-game sample is sourced externally because the warehouse game-log view is incomplete for 2026.
    5. Chicago Cubs first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +68%Won

      Taken at −148 on FanDuel

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Lowder's 5.34 xERA trails Peterson's 4.86; F5 isolates the starting-pitcher gap.
      • Reds lineup xwOBA versus lefties is .3395; Cubs versus righties is .2627.
      • Both nine-man lineups were posted in the pregame roster feed; starter and availability status are resolved.
      • The Cubs versus right-handed split is only 9 PA in the current snapshot; lineup-level samples are thin.
    6. Cincinnati Reds to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • David Peterson's current slate expected ERA is 4.86; the latest refreshed profile row shows 2025 ERA 11.12/12.54 over his last 3/5 starts versus 3.73 xFIP.
      • Reds' posted lineup versus left-handers carries .3395 xwOBA and a 20% strikeout rate over 20 PA, clearing the platoon gate.
      • Cubs' bullpen has logged 4.0 innings and 64 pitches in three days; that supports the Reds if Peterson exits early.
      • Most likely loss: Peterson's recent trouble is noise and he works deep enough to suppress Cincinnati's lineup.
    7. First-inning runs: No
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top threes are confirmed: Crow-Armstrong/Suzuki/Busch and Myers/De La Cruz/Stewart.
      • Cubs vs RHP: .2627 team xwOBA and 33.3% K rate, albeit only 9 PA; Reds vs LHP: .3395 xwOBA and 20% K rate over 20 PA.
      • Lowder has no current first-inning profile row, making the 43% estimate materially model-dependent.
    8. Michael Busch over 1.5 total bases
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +118 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own estimate: approximately 1.75 total bases, 16.7% above the posted 1.5 threshold.
      • Busch's 2025 recent-window row showed a .391 batting average and 1.13 slugging percentage.
      • He is confirmed active and batting third for Chicago against right-hander Rhett Lowder.
      • Busch's strongest recent-window sample is historical, while his 2026 line currently rests on only one game.
    9. David Peterson under 4.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +110 on FanDuel

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own estimate: roughly 3.9 strikeouts, about 13% below the 4.5 line.
      • Peterson's 2025 K/9 was 8.00, but his last-five K/9 was 7.23.
      • Cincinnati's confirmed lineup carries a 20% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching.
      • The 20-plate-appearance Reds split is extremely thin and may not represent the full lineup.
    10. Chicago Cubs to win
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Placement mapping is direct: global Cubs outcome to a live Kalshi Cubs contract; both sides trade at a 1¢ spread, with Cubs YES offered at 60¢.
      • Cincinnati has home field, and Rhett Lowder's live dossier ERA is 1.17.

    Questions

    Who won Cubs vs. Reds?

    The Cubs won 9-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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