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FinalPNC Park
Cardinals77-81
1-2
Pirates80-78
Score by period
Team123456789T
STL1000000001
PIT10000001-2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Pittsburgh Pirates to win −162

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Paul Skenes has an 11.81 L5 K/9 versus Kyle Leahy's 3.00; expected wOBA allowed favors Skenes .280 to .337.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-10 on this game · +6% return

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates to win4 models agree
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on FanDuel

    4 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Paul Skenes has an 11.81 L5 K/9 versus Kyle Leahy's 3.00; expected wOBA allowed favors Skenes .280 to .337.
    • The historical filter is Grade B, not the 100-game Grade A standard, and its 2024 result was materially negative.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: Paul Skenes owns a .280 xwOBA allowed and 3.27 expected ERA; Kyle Leahy's last-five ERA is 6.89.
    • The Pirates' nine-man batting order was posted at 9:00 PDT, clearing the current-roster availability gate.
    • Leahy's season ERA is 3.65, WHIP 1.34 and xwOBA allowed .337; the vulnerability gate rests on a thin last-five ERA sample.
    Drift
    • Model 64.5% vs Pinnacle devigged market 59.3%: 5.2-point gap.
    • Pittsburgh +27 run differential and 107.7 wRC+; St. Louis is −21 and 102.3.
    • Pittsburgh bullpen logged 136 pitches over three days versus St. Louis' 48; late leverage favors the Cardinals.
    Fade the Arm
    • Kyle Leahy's 2026 xERA is 4.89; his TTO xwOBA rises from .285 to .398.
    • Pittsburgh versus right-handed pitching: .326 xwOBA and .227 K rate; the posted lineup is confirmed.
    • Leahy's 2026 velocity is not below baseline: 94.23 mph season average versus 94.48 in his latest start.
  2. St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh’s full-game win anchor is 59.5%; the 6.5 total anchor implies a controlled scoring environment.
    • The 2026 empirical total distribution is right-skewed: mean 8.97, median 8, and 68.8% reached seven runs.
    • Calibrating that shape to the 6.5 anchor puts first-five over 3.5 roughly in the mid-40% range.
    • The F5 split is an approximation from full-game anchors, not a directly observed historical F5 distribution.
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh owns a .3262 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Kyle Leahy is listed with .337 expected wOBA allowed and 4.89 xERA.
    • Posted Pittsburgh lineup leads Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn into the matchup.
    • PNC Park carries a 108 run-scoring factor; the 61°F weather is sunny, though the 11-mph wind is in from center field.
    • Paul Skenes is an elite counterweight: the pregame sheet shows .280 expected wOBA allowed and 3.27 xERA.
  4. 1st-inning total runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model: T1 xRuns 0.20, B1 xRuns 0.27; 20,000-trial NRFI estimate 62.4%, fair price 62.4¢ / −166.
    • Confirmed 1-6 lineups average .340 STL xwOBA and .331 PIT xwOBA versus right-handers; Skenes' 40.9% four-seam usage carries a 29.9% whiff rate.
    • First-inning xwOBA is not separately published; season allowed-xwOBA proxies are .280 for Skenes and .337 for Leahy.
  5. Under total 7
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Paul Skenes: 3.27 xERA, .2656 CSW%; Kyle Leahy: 4.89 xERA, .2623 CSW%.
    • Pittsburgh is +27 and St. Louis −21 in run differential through 158 games; PNC run factor is 92.
    • Leahy's 4.89 xERA leaves Pittsburgh's offense the clearest path to an early over.
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates win inning 5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fifth-inning board: PIT 0.23, STL 0.18, draw 0.62; all three outcomes are live and quoted.
    • F5 PIT winner is 0.48, while normalized innings 1-5 imply roughly 0.40 for a PIT F5 win: a named coherence gap.
    • Skenes projects 5.87 IP and 93.66 pitches; Leahy projects 3.0 IP and 39 pitches, making inning 5 the clearest Skenes-versus-bullpen asymmetry.
    • The F5-to-inning aggregation is model-dependent: multi-run innings can make cumulative ties differ from sign-only probabilities.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Cardinals-Pirates total runs under 7
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.8 total runs, fair total line 7.0, Under win probability 58%, push probability 14% (11:06 AM CDT).
    • Paul Skenes posted a .255 xwOBA allowed, 2.36 FIP and 10.36 K/9; St. Louis' RHP split is only .2958 xwOBA (11:00 AM CDT).
    • PNC Park's 0.92 run factor, 59°F air and 7-mph wind in from right field suppress the run environment (weather locked 11:00 AM CDT).
    • Kyle Leahy's .325 xwOBA allowed and 4.89 slate xERA give Pittsburgh a credible path to an early scoring burst.
  2. Kyle Leahy over 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +126 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25.4% K rate over L5 (18 Ks/71 TBF); L3 is 26.2% (11/42).
    • L5 K/9 is 10.34 versus 8.41 season; recent improvement survives removing his 8-K outlier.
    • Blended projection: 3.8 IP, 16.6 TBF, roughly 4.0 Ks; Poisson P(4+) about 56% versus 44.2% break-even.
    • Recent workload is the key risk: only 14.2 TBF and 3.13 IP per start over L5.
  3. Paul Skenes 6+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 3.9 Ks from 86.0 average pitches over his last three starts (5.4 projected IP) and 6.52 L5 K/9.
    • Confirmed Cardinals lineup is contact-heavy versus RHP: 589 strikeouts in 2,868 PA (20.5%), below the 22% matchup gate.
    • Skenes has only one 6+ outing in his last five (7/4/2/4/4 Ks) and four in his last 10; L3/L5 K/9 are 6.38/6.52 versus 10.29 season.
    • Season baseline is still elite: 10.29 K/9 and 192 Ks in 168 innings, so a strikeout rebound can erase the recent-form signal.
  4. Paul Skenes over 16.5 outs recorded
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last three starts: 6.0, 7.0, and 5.33 IP; 6.11-inning average clears the 5.5-inning requirement.
    • PIT bullpen has thrown 175 pitches and 9.33 IP over three days, creating extension pressure behind Skenes.
    • Rolling three-start efficiency is 14.07 pitches/IP, below the 17.5 decay trigger.
    • Skenes averages 5.42 IP this season, so 16.5 outs is slightly above his full-season workload baseline.
  5. Paul Skenes under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on DraftKings

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five starts: 4, 4, 2, 4, 7 strikeouts; under 5.5 in four of five.
    • Last-three K/9 is 6.38 versus 10.29 for the season.
    • DraftKings offers plus money at +108 on the under.
    • The recent sample is only five starts and includes a seven-strikeout outlier.
  6. First-inning total over 0.5 runs
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT top four versus right-handers average .340 xwOBA; Leahy allows .337 xwOBA in 2026.
    • PNC runs factor is 108; 59°F and a 7-mph wind in from RF temper, but do not erase, scoring.
    • Skenes has a 30.8% first-inning K rate, .280 xwOBA allowed, and a 96.8-mph fastball.
  7. Pittsburgh Pirates −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pirates −1 wins by 2+, pushes on exactly a one-run win, and loses otherwise.
    • ProphetX prices Pirates −1 at 49.75¢ versus −1.5 at 39.68¢, only 10.07 points apart.
    • ProphetX self-comparison supplies no independent fair-price check for the alternate rung.
  8. Game total under 7.5 runs
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX under 7.5 is 57.98c; adjacent under 7 is 52.15c (−109).
    • Under 7.5 wins at totals 0, 7; under 7 pushes exactly 7 and loses at 8+.
  9. St. Louis Cardinals to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: St. Louis wins 43.5% versus 40% implied by ProphetX +150; about 8.8% expected value before fees.
    • Paul Skenes has a strong .280 xwOBA-against mark, but Kyle Leahy's last-five ERA is 6.89.
    • Pittsburgh's RHP split leads St. Louis in xwOBA (.3262 to .2958) and SLG (.3998 to .3599).
    • Skenes can dominate the matchup; his 10.29 K/9 and .280 xwOBA-against support Pittsburgh.
  10. Game total under 6.5 runs
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Paul Skenes: 1.35 ERA over 26.67 innings in his last five, with a 1.97 season ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
    • St. Louis owns only a .2958 xwOBA and .3599 SLG versus right-handed pitching; Pittsburgh's .3262 xwOBA is solid but not explosive.
    • Kalshi opened the under at an implied 45%; the current 44¢ price implies only about 2.2% decay, preserving room for the read.
    • Kyle Leahy's 6.89 ERA over his last 15.67 innings is the clearest path to an early over.
  11. Iván Herrera over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of Herrera's last 10 appearances stayed hitless.
    • Kalshi prices NO at 40¢ against the 1+ hits contract.
    • Herrera is confirmed batting second in the Cardinals lineup.
    • Recent-form sample is only 10 games and may overstate the true hitless probability.
  12. Paul Skenes under 16.5 outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18 of 31 2026 starts stayed below 16.5 outs; last 10 improved to 7 of 10.
    • Last 10 averaged 15.8 outs and 88.4 pitches, versus 16.26 outs and 90.1 pitches season-wide.
    • Blended true-probability estimate: 61.5% versus 55.6% DraftKings break-even, a +5.9-point edge.
    • The full-season under rate is only 58.1%, so the edge leans on recent workload.
  13. Kyle Leahy strikeouts 4+ (YES)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19 of 29 2026 starts reached 4+ strikeouts (65.5%); season average is 4.45 Ks.
    • Season workload is 4.76 innings per start; Pittsburgh's bullpen has thrown 7.33 innings and 136 pitches over three days.
    • The full monotone ladder was screened: Leahy 2+/.83, 3+/.67, 4+/.41, 5+/.23; the 7+ and 8+ contracts were excluded as placeholder-band quotes.
    • Leahy's last five outings lasted only 3.0, 3.0, 2.67, 3.0 and 4.0 innings; he reached 4+ in only 3 of those 5.
  14. Pittsburgh Pirates first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −156 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Leahy’s expected line is 4.89 xERA and .337 xwOBA allowed; his L3/L5 ERAs are 11.42 and 6.89.
    • Skenes allows .280 xwOBA, with L3/L5 ERAs of 3.44 and 3.72.
    • The F5 board projects Pittsburgh at 2.74 runs versus St. Louis at 2.39 before bullpen variance.
    • Leahy’s 3.65 season ERA and 138 innings are materially better than his recent form.
  15. Pittsburgh Pirates run line −1
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Leahy’s current 3.67 xFIP and 4.89 xERA exceed his 3.65 ERA; recent ERA is 11.42 over three starts.
    • TTO decay is stark: Leahy’s 2026 xwOBA allowed rises from .285 to .290 to .342 to .399.
    • Most likely loss: Skenes suppresses St. Louis and Pittsburgh wins by exactly one, producing a −1 push rather than a win.
  16. First-inning runs
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1 − (0.70 × 0.70) gives a 51.2% offense-only F1 baseline.
    • Confirmed top-four lineups average .344 STL and .340 PIT xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Leahy/Skenes first-inning BA is .1887/.2087; 0.32/.3077 K rates temper, but do not erase, the top-order strength.
    • Both starters are suppressive in moderate samples: 29 and 31 first-inning games.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Pirates?

The Pirates won 2-1 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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