Updated
FinalSutter Health Park
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFirst-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings) 54¢
Why Ledger Balance likes it: Moneyline anchor prices Houston at 64%; full-game totals are 57% over 8.5 and 45% over 9.5.
Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 12-11 on this game · +1% return
- First-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Moneyline anchor prices Houston at 64%; full-game totals are 57% over 8.5 and 45% over 9.5.
- The recent 763-game empirical scoring shape centers at 8.9 runs, fitting the roughly nine-run full-game environment.
- At 0-0 in the top of the second, F5 over 4.5 is still priced 56c, nearly the same as full-game over 8.5 despite 3.5 innings remaining in the F5 window.
- The F5 contract has no separate market-history series here, so its quote could be slower-moving than the anchors.
- Houston Astros 1st-inning winner−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Anchor fit: Houston implies about a 65% full-game win probability; the scoring ladder centers near 10 runs.
- The first-inning board prices Houston at 30c versus Athletics at 26c and draw at 49c.
- A favored side in a high-run environment should win an inning more often than this 30c rung implies.
- The fitted distribution is primarily venue self-reference; the sharp check covers anchors, not this contract.
- Athletics over 3.5 runs scored−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Athletics face right-handed Peter Lambert; their 2026 versus-R xwOBA is .316, above their .298 versus lefties.
- Lambert's current xwOBA allowed is .298, while his last-five ERA is 4.91 versus 3.87 season ERA.
- Sutter Health Park carries a 130 run factor and 134 home-run factor, supporting run conversion at this exact team rung.
- Lambert's season xERA is 3.73, better than his 4.91 last-five ERA; regression can suppress the Athletics total.
- Seth Johnson over 0.5 earned runs allowed−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket
Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picksWhy it likes it
- 50¢ Polymarket global price; Johnson allowed at least one earned run in 4 of his last 5 appearances.
- Johnson carries a 6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 12% walk rate in the current-season profile.
- Houston owns a 107.3 wRC+ overall and its team total is 5.5 runs at −135 DraftKings.
- Johnson has zero 2026 starts and only 32 innings; translating a relief role to a start creates major workload uncertainty.
- Total runs under 9.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Ledger: Houston's .309 xwOBA versus right-handers across 4,854 PA is −0.50 runs, capped at −0.40 for Partial; Athletics' .316 xwOBA is 0.00.
- Bullpen ledger is 0.00: Houston has 4.67 IP and Athletics 7.0 IP over the last three days, with zero back-to-back relievers on cutoff.
- The exchange is on 9.5 while Pinnacle's main rung is 10.0, so the reference is derived rather than exact-rung; the half-run gap may encode information.
- Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 hits+32%Won
Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket US
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed in Houston's starting lineup, batting second.
- 10-for-10 with a hit in his last 10 games.
- 2026 xWoba vs right-handed pitching is .4553, 46.3% above the .3114 league comparison.
- A hit prop can fail on one or two unfavorable plate appearances despite the recent streak.
Show all 23 picks
- Houston Astros spread −1.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston's −41 run differential versus Oakland's −229 and 106.3 wRC+ versus 90.8 support the Astros side.
- Confirmed Peter Lambert: 3.73 xERA, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP; Athletics starter Seth Johnson: 6.19 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
- Houston bullpen workload is lighter: 4.67 IP/88 pitches/5 arms in 3 days versus Oakland's 7.0 IP/150 pitches/7 arms.
- Most likely loss: Houston wins by exactly one run or fails to win, so the −1.5 spread misses despite the stronger rating.
- Houston Astros 7th inning winner+245%Won
Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US
Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- The 7th-inning draw is 59¢, the board's highest draw price through inning 8; innings 1-6 are 49-56¢.
- Full-game total is 10.5 with Over at 49¢, inconsistent with a late-game low-event regime.
- Athletics used 7 bullpen arms for 7.0 IP/150 pitches in 3 days versus Houston's 5 arms for 4.67 IP/88 pitches.
- Exact seventh-inning reliever assignments and leverage usage are unknown before first pitch.
- Game total over 10.5 runs−100%Lost
Taken at −107 on DraftKings
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 10.9 projected total runs, fair total line 10.9, Over 10.5 win probability 55.3%, push probability 0%; released 1:37 PM CDT for 2:05 PM CDT first pitch.
- Sutter Health Park carries a 130 run factor and 134 HR factor; 70°F weather with wind 6 mph out to center.
- Athletics relievers logged 150 pitches over 7.0 innings in the prior three days versus Houston's 88 pitches over 4.67 innings.
- Houston's Peter Lambert owns a .298 2026 xwOBA allowed and 3.91 FIP, which can suppress Oakland's early scoring.
- Peter Lambert over 2.5 strikeouts−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
K’sUp 9% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 5.49 projected IP/start and 4.28 TBF/IP imply roughly 23.5 TBF; no IL, rehab, pitch-limit or back-to-back flag.
- Last-eight fastball velocity rose to 93.95 mph versus 93.9 mph season baseline; changeup and sweeper whiffs are 33.1% and 30.3%.
- Athletics' 21.4% lineup K rate is below Lambert's season rate, so this is not an elite opponent-contact matchup.
- Houston Astros team total over 5.5 runs+77%Won
Taken at −130 on BetMGM
BelloUp 7% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Johnson has 32.0 IP and zero starts; his last three outings lasted 1.0, 2.67, and 1.0 innings.
- Athletics bullpen carries 173 pitches_3d on the fresh slate; the short-start path exposes that relief group early.
- Lambert’s last three starts: 14.0 IP, 234 pitches, 16.71 P/IP, 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
- Lambert’s rolling velocity/spin are stable: 89.88 mph and 2,145 rpm versus 89.40 and 2,201 season baselines, deltas +0.48/−56.8.
- Peter Lambert over 4.5 pitching strikeouts−100%Lost
Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi
Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambert owns an 8.96 K/9 season rate and 10.29 K/9 over his last three starts.
- He recorded 6, 6, and 4 strikeouts in his last three outings; two of three cleared this number.
- Kalshi's live 5+ K contract was offered at 12¢, a substantial discount to the recent-form baseline.
- Athletics' 21.4% K rate versus right-handed pitching is below a prime-over threshold.
- Game total under 9.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket
Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Live Polymarket global quote: Under 9.5 costs 43.5¢; underlying spread is approximately 1¢.
- Seth Johnson carries a 6.19 ERA, and both bullpens have heavy recent workloads: Athletics 202 pitches, Houston 173 in three days.
- Any run in the 1st inning−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair YRFI probability: 61%, roughly 5.5 percentage points above the 55.5% Kalshi midpoint.
- Seth Johnson owns a 6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.06 BB/9 and only 58.9% first-pitch strikes in his Athletics sample.
- Houston's confirmed 1-4 combine for a .371 weighted wOBA, led by Yordan Alvarez at .433 wOBA and .443 xwOBA.
- Johnson has only 32 innings and zero prior starts in the displayed Athletics sample, so his first-inning true talent is uncertain.
- Game total under 10.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 1% last 30 days - Houston Astros spread −1+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quotes Astros −1 at 60.32¢ versus −1.5 at 53.27¢; only 7.05 price points apart.
- No projection edge is claimed; Houston winning by two or more is unmodeled.
- Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 7 of Alvarez's last 10 appearances cleared 1.5 total bases.
- Season line is .316 AVG and .604 SLG across 687 PA; last-10 total-base output was 31 in 44 PA.
- Sutter Health Park carries a 130 run factor and 134 home-run factor.
- The official lineup page still showed TBD, although the live prop board listed Alvarez Active for this game.
- Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 home runs−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Alvarez has 42 homers in 687 season PA and homered in 3 of his last 10 appearances.
- Park factor is 134 for home runs, a top-tier power environment.
- Seth Johnson's current line includes a 6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 1.41 HR/9.
- Home runs are inherently high-variance; even a strong power setup produces many non-HR outcomes.
- Peter Lambert over 2.5 pitching strikeouts−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP composite 82/100: 28 of 28 2026 starts cleared 2.5 Ks; the last 10 and last 5 are both 5-for-5.
- 5.46 season Ks per start and 5.30 over the last 10 materially clear the 2.5 threshold.
- Role is verified: Lambert is listed as Houston's starter with 28 starts and 153 strikeouts; no workload uncertainty from a new role.
- Athletics' 21.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching is a below-ideal matchup.
- Houston Astros first-five to win (first 5 innings)+60%Won
Taken at −166 on DraftKings
The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Weak Pitcher Fade: Athletics starter Seth Johnson has a 6.19 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .3311 xwOBA allowed.
- Houston's confirmed lineup includes Yordan Alvarez (.4423 xwOBA, 180.7 wRC+) and Isaac Paredes (.3233 xwOBA, 130.8 wRC+).
- Peter Lambert owns a 3.73 xERA and .298 xwOBA allowed, creating the key first-five starting-pitcher gap.
- Lambert's recent ERA is 5.79 over his last three starts versus 3.87 season-long, so Houston is not immune to early damage.
- Houston Astros run line −1.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Seth Johnson has a 6.19 ERA and .3311 xwOBA allowed; fourth-time-through-order xwOBA is .338 over 146 PA.
- Houston's posted lineup is active, and versus right-handed pitching it has .4128 SLG with a .2229 K rate, clearing the platoon gate.
- Cashing likelihood is supported by Johnson's poor run-prevention indicators and Houston's platoon quality; price quality is supported by the ProphetX discount to the reference market.
- Most likely loss: Houston wins by exactly one run, which does not cover −1.5.
- First-inning runs over 0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed top threes: HOU Peña/Alvarez/Paredes; ATH Bolte/Butler/Langeliers, posted at 11:30 PDT.
- Athletics vs RHP xwOBA is .316 and Houston .309; Sutter Health Park factors are 130 runs/134 HR with 6-mph wind out.
- Seth Johnson's first-inning sample is only 7 PA from 2024: 2 walks, 1 HR, zero strikeouts.
- Houston Astros to win+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
UndertowUp 2% over 123 picksWhy it likes it
- Lambert: 3.87 ERA, .298 xwOBA against; Johnson: 6.19 ERA, .3311 xwOBA against; Houston also has the better record.
- The price edge is narrow, so one-run variance and bullpen leverage can overwhelm the signal.
Questions
Who won Astros vs. Athletics?
The Astros won 9-0 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.