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FinalRogers Centre
Reds75-86
1-5
Blue Jays78-83
Score by period
Team123456789T
CIN0010000001
TOR02200001-5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cincinnati Reds F5 total under 5.5 (first 5 innings) 57¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Independent F5 estimate: CIN 2.20 plus TOR 2.75 equals 4.95 runs; Poisson fair under 5.5 is 62.5%.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-17 on this game · −23% return

  1. Max Scherzer under 5.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −172 on FanDuel

    3 modelsShawn's K-Floor Staircase, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Last 10 starts: 7, 3, 3, 2, 10, 4, 1, 4, 4, 5 Ks, 8 of 10 stayed below 6.
    • L3/L5 form is 7.8/8.13 K/9 with 249/422 pitches; 83-pitch L3 average supports roughly 5.2 projected innings.
    • Only two of Scherzer's last four pitch counts reached 80: 93, 73, 83, 76; an efficient outing can create a sixth-K opportunity.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Scherzer averaged 4.33 Ks across his last three starts: 7, 3, and 3.
    • Recent workloads were 93, 73, and 83 pitches; the short turnaround after Sept. 23 adds under risk control.
    • Only 3-4 rest days and an uncertain pitch limit could widen the workload variance.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model 70% vs 63.2% implied at −172: roughly 6.8 percentage points of value.
    • Scherzer stayed under 5.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts.
    • Cincinnati's 25.5% projected lineup K rate is a real threat to the under.
  2. Toronto Blue Jays to win2 models agree
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsParity Desk, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    Why 2 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Cincinnati xwOBA .303 versus R triggers −0.50-run ledger, capped −0.40 Partial; Toronto ledger 0.00.
    • Scherzer profile is from 2025 with a 368-day listed rest gap; current effectiveness and workload are uncertain.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Max Scherzer qualifies as vulnerable: 5.19 season ERA, with a 9.95 ERA and 2.10 WHIP across his last three starts.
    • Toronto's current nine-man lineup is posted, with no unresolved core-bat availability issue.
    • Toronto's bullpen has thrown 13.0 innings and 213 pitches over three days, versus Cincinnati's 6.0 innings and 104 pitches.
  3. Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +131 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated 49% hit probability versus 43.3% DraftKings break-even: +5.7 percentage points.
    • De La Cruz has a .518 season SLG, .3775 xwOBA and 146.7 wRC+ across 627 PA.
    • The 16-for-23 recent run is a hot, variance-heavy sample and should regress.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model 50% vs 43.3% implied at +131: about 6.7 percentage points of value.
    • Elly cleared 1.5 total bases in 5 of his last 10 appearances.
    • The recent prop sample is exactly 5/10, so the edge is thin and variance is substantial.
  4. Cincinnati Reds F5 total under 5.5 (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent F5 estimate: CIN 2.20 plus TOR 2.75 equals 4.95 runs; Poisson fair under 5.5 is 62.5%.
    • Scherzer's L5 WHIP is 1.05 with .320 xWOBA allowed; Toronto's lineup versus lefties is .2921 xwOBA.
    • Venue quote is open and tradable: both sides populated, 57¢ under plus 44¢ over equals 1.01; depth check passes.
    • Williamson's L5 WHIP is 1.54 and xwOBA allowed is .365; one early Toronto eruption defeats the under.
  5. No 9th-inning tie
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply about a 60.8% Toronto win probability and an 8.5-run total near the 2026 scoring environment.
    • That fitted run process puts a regulation-inning tie near 40%; the directional consensus is decisively toward NO.
    • Pinnacle independently supports the anchor read at Toronto −164 and total 8.5 (−116 over / +103 under).
    • The ninth inning is not a flat-rate inning: bullpen quality, leverage, and whether the bottom half is played can materially change tie probability.
  6. Cincinnati Reds +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US Toronto is 61c on the moneyline and the full-game total is 8.5.
    • Sharp check agrees: Pinnacle lists Toronto −163 and 8.5 at −116 over / +103 under.
    • 2026 empirical sample: 2,415 games averaged 8.97 runs; median 8, with the middle half from 6 to 12.
    • Estimated edge is roughly 4 points before Polymarket fees; this alternate rung is thinner than the anchors.
Show all 26 picks
  1. Toronto Blue Jays over 3.5 runs scoredFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Toronto nine has 2 runs through 2 innings and needs two more; six-plus innings remain in a live game.
    • Brandon Williamson: 4.89 season ERA, 5.88 expected ERA, .365 xwOBA allowed, and 65.33 pitches/start.
    • Cincinnati entered with 12 bullpen innings, 189 pitches and one reliever on back-to-back days; Toronto's lineup is confirmed.
    • Toronto still needs two additional runs, and Max Scherzer could lengthen the game if Williamson exits quickly.
  2. Brandon Williamson under 3.5 strikeouts
    +57%Won

    Taken at −175 on BetMGM

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Toronto's 20% K rate versus left-handed pitching clears the brief's sub-21.5% gate.
    • Williamson averages 65.33 pitches per start, well below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • He stayed under 3.5 Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts; the live BetMGM price is −175.
    • −175 leaves a narrow margin; one extra strikeout makes this a loss.
  3. Brandon Williamson under 14.5 pitching outs
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 49¢ Kalshi NO on Williamson 15+ outs; his last three starts averaged 14.3 outs (18, 16, 9).
    • Last-three-start workload averaged 71 pitches (68, 87, 58); season average is 14.75 outs per start.
    • Toronto is offered at a 4.5-run team total, and its last-30-day xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .3126.
    • The recent WHIP and ERA are not deteriorating versus his season baseline: 1.40 versus 1.41 and 4.39 versus 4.89.
  4. Total runs under 8.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
  5. Brandon Williamson over 2.5 strikeouts
    +61%Won

    Taken at −165 on DraftKings

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects approximately 3.8 strikeouts from a roughly 24-batter workload and regressed strikeout baseline.
    • Confirmed Toronto lineup has no hitter below 60 PA; its lefty-matchup strikeout rate is 20%.
    • John Bacon's current zone-fit signal is positive for Williamson; 16-game umpire sample is regressed.
    • Williamson has only eight 2026 starts and owns a modest 5.98 season K/9.
  6. Brandon Williamson over 14.5 outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 TTO spine: 1st 37 PA/.2162 K%/.3343 xwOBA; 2nd 41/.0732/.4139; 3rd 33/.1212/.3419, third-turn access is routine.
    • 2026 regular-season GS>0 row: 16.73 P/IP, 84.12 pitches/start, 4.92 IP/start; five formal starts, three reached 15+ outs.
    • John Bacon fit: +0.01 called-strike delta and +4.03 fit_z; positive low/wide zone modeled as a one-turn, three-out assist.
    • TTO3 33 PA versus TTO1 37, 84.12 pitches/start and 4.92 IP/start; current starting regime has five formal starts logged.
  7. Elly De La Cruz RBIs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting second projects 4.3 PA; full coverage includes 446 PA versus RHP, .2634 average, and .3853 xwOBA.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati fails to put runners on base ahead of Elly, leaving RBI chances stranded.
  8. Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays under 0.5 first-inning runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • T1 xRuns proxy 0.32; B1 xRuns proxy 0.30 from verified first-inning scoreless rates.
    • Model NRFI probability 54.2% versus 50.0c executable No price; fair price 54.2c, approximately −118.
    • Scherzer TTO1: .3224 xwOBA allowed, 25% K, estimated 11.3% K-BB; Williamson: .3343 xwOBA, 21.6% K, estimated 8.1% K-BB.
    • Neither starter shows elite first-inning contact suppression: xwOBA allowed exceeds .320 for both.
  9. Max Scherzer over 7 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scherzer stayed below 7 strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%).
    • The live MLB feed lists Scherzer as Toronto's starter and the Polymarket contract is quoted, not indicative.
    • The 80c NO price implies roughly −400, within the expert's extreme-chalk price band.
    • Scherzer reached 7 or more Ks twice in the last 10, including a 10-K outing.
  10. Cincinnati Reds 8th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • the 8th-inning draw is 0.63, versus 0.52, 0.59 in innings 1, 6, despite an 8.5 full-game total and 4.5 first-five total.
    • The 8th's 0.63 draw implies an unusually quiet frame; the full-game and first-five totals point to roughly four runs remaining after five.
    • Toronto's bullpen has logged 25.0 IP and 379 pitches in seven days, compared with Cincinnati's 17.33 IP and 283 pitches.
    • The draw remains the modal venue outcome at 0.63, so a scoreless or tied 8th loses.
  11. Game total under 8.5 runs
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected total runs, 8.0 fair total line, 54.7% under win probability, 0% push probability; released 1:41 PM CDT.
    • Reds versus right-handed pitching: .236 average, .402 slugging, and .303 xwOBA across 4,767 PA.
    • Toronto versus left-handed pitching: .259 average, .404 slugging, and .319 xwOBA across 1,663 PA.
    • Brandon Williamson carries a 5.88 slate xERA and Max Scherzer a 4.35 xERA, leaving room for early damage.
  12. Brandon Williamson under 2.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +139 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30 K on 193 BF across his last 10 starts (15.5%); removing the 5-K peak leaves 25 K/169 BF (14.8%).
    • Last five: 14 K on 87 BF (16.1%) and 6.0 K/9, showing no recency surge versus his 5.98 season K/9.
    • Pitch-arsenal cross-check is consistent: roughly 22.1% pitch-weighted whiff versus 23.7% on the pitcher-whiff macro; model lambda is about 2.7 and P(K≤2) about 48%.
    • Williamson has reached 4+ Ks in 4 of his last 10 starts; the under 2.5 result was only 4/10 in that sample.
  13. Toronto Blue Jays under 4.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Toronto has scored 30 runs in its last 10 games: exactly 3.0 per game; the under cleared 4.5 in 7 of those 10.
    • Toronto's current-season line versus left-handed pitching is .228 AVG, .360 SLG, .292 xwOBA.
    • Brandon Williamson's confirmed last three starts total 14.33 IP and 213 pitches: 14.86 P/IP and 4.78 IP/start.
    • Max Scherzer carries a 6.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, creating a path to a high-scoring Toronto response if Cincinnati leads early.
  14. Game total over 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  15. Game total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate is approximately 54% over: both probable starters carry ERAs near 5.0 or higher.
    • Williamson's 5.88 xERA and Scherzer's 6.14 ERA leave run-prevention risk above a 8.5 baseline.
    • Scherzer's 4.35 xERA is materially better than his current ERA and can produce a clean start.
  16. Brandon Williamson under 14.5 outs recorded
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); Williamson went under 14.5 outs in 6/10 recent starts, 3/5 in the L5, and 7/11 this season.
    • His season average is 13.55 outs, while the L5 average is 13.0; both sit below the posted 14.5 threshold.
    • Blended projection is 13.6 outs, a 6.2% cushion below the line; estimated 61% win probability versus DraftKings' 49% implied at +104.
    • Toronto's lineup has a low .2921 opponent xwOBA and only a 20% strikeout rate, which can let Williamson work efficiently.
  17. Sal Stewart over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −195 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B); Stewart recorded a hit in 7/10 recent games, 4/5 in the L5, and 112/160 this season.
    • He is confirmed third in the Reds lineup, providing stable plate-appearance opportunity with no active IL listing.
    • Against left-handed pitching in 2026: .2545 AVG and .3497 xwOBA across 184 plate appearances.
    • The L10 sample still includes three hitless games, so the recent streak is not dominant.
  18. Max Scherzer under 5.5 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −172 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 76/100 (B+); under hit in 8/10 recent starts and 15/17 this season.
    • L5 under rate is 3/5 (60%), clearing the hard recent-form gate; season average is 3.59 strikeouts.
    • Blended projection is 4.5 Ks, an 18.2% cushion below the 5.5 line; estimated 76% win probability versus FanDuel's 63.2% implied.
    • Cincinnati's lineup carries a 25.5% strikeout rate and 27.5% whiff rate, a meaningful over threat.
  19. Game total under 9
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle is over 8.5 −116 / under +103. The sharp reference opposes this flow read.
    • Moneyline and run-line boards are balanced. This qualifies as LEAN only, not RECOMMENDED.
    • No cross-market confirmation: moneyline size ratio is 2.65x and the −1 run line is 1.08x.
  20. Max Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts
    +76%Won

    Taken at −131 on DraftKings

    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerDown 67% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scherzer has 61 strikeouts in 77.67 innings this season; his last-five K/9 is 8.13.
    • opportunity Poisson-binomial baseline near 5.0 Ks, shifted to the sharp 5.5 anchor, gives P(5+) ≈ 60%.
    • DraftKings −131 implies 56.7%; BetOnline −143 also prices below the shifted fair probability.
    • Scherzer averages only 4.57 innings and 79.24 pitches per 2026 start; a short outing can cap the over.

Questions

Who won Reds vs. Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays won 5-1 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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