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FinalCitizens Bank Park
Rays98-63
3-7
Phillies87-74
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0000102003
PHI13003000-7

Top model pick, graded

Won

First-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings) 47¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Polymarket anchors imply a 64.5% Phillies win probability and a low-scoring 7.5-run environment; the anchors are mutually coherent.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-12 on this game · +1% return

  1. Game total under 6.5 runs3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    3 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, cash-first mlb under hunter +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 6.2 runs, fair total line 6.2, Under 6.5 win probability 58%, push probability 0% (model snapshot 1:01 PM CDT).
    • Wheeler owns a 2.92 xERA and .265 xwOBA allowed; Philadelphia's opponent is limited by an elite run-prevention starter.
    • Philadelphia's Schwarber, Harper middle can create a multi-run inning against Martinez despite the low aggregate projection.
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Independent run mean 5.7; modeled Under 6.5 cash probability approximately 63%.
    • Wheeler: 2.92 xERA, 2.73 xFIP, 11.37 K/9 L5, and .239 TTO3 xwOBA allowed.
    • Martinez carries a 4.54 xFIP and .301 TTO3 xwOBA allowed, creating a Phillies scoring path.
    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
    • Model projects 6.20 total runs; Poisson under probability 57.4%.
    • Zack Wheeler: 36.7% FB / 48.6% GB, 2.92 xERA, 1.06 WHIP.
    • Both starters cleared the workload gate narrowly through Martinez’s 81-pitch last-four average.
  2. Philadelphia Phillies −1.52 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Wheeler: 2.92 xERA, 10.85 K/9 and .265 xwOBA allowed; Martinez: 3.92 xERA and 5.48 K/9.
    • The calculated edge is slight; a one-run Philadelphia win loses the −1.5 run line.
    Fade the Arm
    • Nick Martinez’s 3.92 xERA exceeds his 2.94 ERA; 3.61 xFIP flags regression.
    • TTO decay: Martinez’s allowed xwOBA rises from .2705 in TTO1 to .3387 in TTO2.
    • Lineup is unposted at 9:01 AM, so key-bat availability is unconfirmed; this is LEAN-sized.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +170 on BetMGM

    Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantUp 86% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: TB true win 37.8%; fair +164; medium confidence; 1:30 PM CDT; Wheeler edge, TB offense risk.
    • Projected runs: Philadelphia 4.2, Tampa Bay 3.2; home field and bullpen sequencing favor Philadelphia.
    • Wheeler owns 2.92 xERA, 10.85 K/9, and a 1.70 ERA with 11.37 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • Philadelphia remains the model favorite; Wheeler’s elite strikeout profile can suppress Tampa Bay’s extra-base offense.
  4. Tampa Bay Rays F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: both starters posted, probables fresh, 9 starters each; L5 logs present.
    • Wheeler is excellent, but Martinez's 6.37 L5 K/9 is supported by the Rays' contact-oriented top three; the F5 model makes this close.
    • Zack Wheeler has a 0.27 season xwOBA-against, 1.71 L5 ERA and 11.37 L5 K/9; one dominant turn defeats the read.
  5. First-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket anchors imply a 64.5% Phillies win probability and a low-scoring 7.5-run environment; the anchors are mutually coherent.
    • In 2,414 recent MLB games, final totals 0-7 produced first-five over 3.5 only 34.6%; totals 8+ produced it 83.1%.
    • Weighting those empirical rates by the anchor total (62.5% 0-7, 37.5% 8+) gives an estimated 52.8% probability.
    • The conditional fit maps final-game total buckets to a pregame first-five market and may miss game-specific dependence.
  6. No 9th-inning tie
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors: Polymarket US implies roughly 61.5% Phillies to win and a 7.5-run game leaning Under; that is a coherent low-scoring favorite.
    • 2026 MLB finals: 2,415 games averaged 8.97 runs with an 8-run median; calibrating the right-skewed distribution to this 7.5 anchor centers the game near 7.7, 7.8 runs.
    • A flat fitted rate is about 0.86 runs per inning, placing a tie near 50, 52%; the ninth-inning tie is quoted at 76¢, making NO the coherent side.
    • Ninth-inning closer and reliever identities are unconfirmed; bullpen quality and availability can materially change the draw rate.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Zack Wheeler under 5.5 strikeouts
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tampa Bay's 17.9% K rate versus right-handed pitching clears the brief's <19.5% high-contact gate.
    • FanDuel +112 requires roughly 47.2% to break even on the under 5.5 line.
    • His last three starts produced 11, 5, and 9 strikeouts; the recent sample does not show a decline.
  2. Philadelphia Phillies first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +51%Won

    Taken at −196 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70% independent F5 estimate (fair −233) vs FanDuel −196; 62.7% devig market, +7.3 points.
    • Wheeler: 2.92 xERA, .265 xwOBA allowed, .322 xSLG; Martinez: 3.92, .305, .409.
    • Against right-handed bats, Wheeler allows .229 xwOBA versus Martinez's .317; K/9 is 10.85 versus 5.48.
    • Recent five-start ERA is better for Wheeler (1.71) than Martinez (3.03), but recent form is noisy and cuts both ways.
  3. Junior Caminero over 2 hitsFavorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed third in Tampa Bay's lineup at 10:40 AM PT against verified starter Zack Wheeler.
    • Under 2 hits in 8 of his last 10 games; the two misses were exactly 2 hits.
    • Wheeler allowed .188 AVG to right-handed batters versus a .244 league average, a 23% suppression.
    • Caminero is coming off 2+ hits in two of his last three games.
  4. Under total 6.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model under probability 53%; Wheeler xERA 2.92 and 1.71 L5 ERA support a low-scoring baseline.
    • Martinez xERA 3.92 but 3.03 L5 ERA; both confirmed starters and neither is on the IL.
    • 63°F with 18 mph wind in from center; Carlos Torres’ current profile shows only 28.6% over-9 games.
    • The 6.5 total is already low; one early homer or crooked inning can decide the ticket.
  5. Zack Wheeler 6+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wheeler owns a 10.85 K/9 season mark, with 11.44 L3 and 11.37 L5 K/9.
    • Last five starts produced 11, 5, 9, 9, and 6 Ks; last four pitch counts were 101, 91, 110, and 95.
    • Verified leash: 27 starts, 156.0 season innings, 6.33 projected IP from the last-five workload.
    • Tampa Bay’s confirmed nine owns only an 18.6% K rate versus right-handers, a contact-heavy matchup.
  6. Tampa Bay Rays under 2.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies are a ghost offense at 2.8 R/G over the last 10; Wheeler's 1.06 WHIP triggers the team-total pivot.
    • Wheeler's last-three-start workload is 15.35 P/IP, with +0.19 mph velocity and −9 rpm spin versus his season baseline.
    • Wheeler brings a 10.85 K/9 against a Rays lineup at .314 xwOBA and 17.9% strikeouts versus right-handers.
    • Tampa Bay averages 4.5 runs over its last 10, including 12 runs yesterday.
  7. Tampa Bay Rays spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays +1 wins when Tampa Bay wins, pushes when Philadelphia wins by exactly one, and loses only by 2+.
    • The pair comparison is ProphetX self-reference, not an independent sharp confirmation.
  8. Game total over 7
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Total Runs over 7 wins at 8+, loses at 6 or fewer, and pushes exactly at 7.
    • ProphetX prices over 7 at 41.67¢ versus over 7.5 at 36.76¢: only a 4.91¢ premium for push protection at the exact rung.
    • The adjacent over 6.5 is 48.31¢, so the whole-number contract sits between neighboring half-point prices while adding a refund state.
    • ProphetX's 4.91¢ whole-rung premium may already reflect the push state; the ladder can reprice before first pitch.
  9. Philadelphia Phillies team total over 3.5
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated Phillies scoring mean 4.25 runs; P(4+) about 61%, roughly 9.5 points above −106 break-even.
    • Nine Phillies starters are confirmed active, including Turner, Schwarber, Harper and Bohm in the top five.
    • Nick Martinez's 3.92 expected ERA exceeds his 2.94 ERA, while Tampa Bay's bullpen logged 12.67 innings and 247 pitches in three days.
    • 18-mph wind in from center field suppresses carry and home-run scoring.
  10. Bryce Harper over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +50%Won

    Taken at −199 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • .297 average and .422 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching over 420 PA in 2026.
    • Hit in 7 of his last 10 games; the prop board lists him as an active participant.
    • Model estimates a 74% hit probability versus −199 implied 66.6%, a 7.4-point value margin.
    • Three-to-four plate appearances leave substantial single-game variance.
  11. Nick Martinez over 14.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26 of 30 2026 starts cleared 14.5 outs; last 10 cleared in 9 of 10.
    • Last five starts averaged 17.8 outs, with five straight clears; workload is stable at 30 starts.
    • Season workload averages 17.7 outs/start versus a 14.5 posted line, a 22.3% projection edge.
    • Philadelphia can elevate Martinez's pitch count and force an early exit despite his recent workload.
  12. Zack Wheeler 6 or more strikeouts
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 5.8 projected innings; estimated 6+ K probability 0.36, so no probability 0.64.
    • Wheeler's 2026 times-through-order K rates are 39.8% / 27.4% / 29.1% across 340 PA; the first-pass rate does not persist.
    • Tampa Bay's current right-handed matchup K rate is 17.9% over 4,419 PA, materially below Wheeler's 30.2% season K rate.
    • Wheeler has reached 6+ strikeouts in 5 of his last 7 starts, including 11 and 9 twice.
  13. Philadelphia Phillies to winFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nick Martinez's 2.94 ERA is backed by a 3.92 xERA and 3.61 xFIP, a results-quality gap the ProphetX price has not fully absorbed.
    • Philadelphia's nine-man starting lineup posted at 10:50 AM PDT, with the key bats active; both listed starters are off the active IL.
    • Cashing likelihood is medium-high, driven by Martinez's expected-stat gap and Philadelphia's platoon/contact profile; price quality is medium, not a runaway edge.
    • Martinez's recent ERA is mixed-to-good: 2.08 over his last three starts and 3.03 over his last five; the profile could be overstating regression.
  14. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning-specific estimate is about 36% RFI / 64% NRFI; this is not a sharp-book reference.
    • Posted top threes versus right-handed pitching are strong but not overwhelming: TB xwOBA .3456/.3530/.3477; PHI .3512/.2989/.4220.
    • Tampa Bay's batting order was not yet captured in the warehouse; the web lineup page had no update stamp, so a late scratch or order change remains possible.
  15. Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-27 10:56:50 PDT; bet link is the fresh line-specific contract link.
    • Wheeler's 10.85 K/9, .265 expected wOBA allowed and 2.92 expected ERA are better than Martinez's 5.48, .305 and 3.92.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Phillies?

The Phillies won 7-3 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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