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FinalloanDepot park
Braves94-67
3-5
Marlins79-82
Score by period
Team123456789T
ATL0010002003
MIA00010310-5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Miami Marlins to win −124

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Janson Junk is confirmed over JR Ritchie; Junk owns the current-season edge (4.31 vs 4.79 ERA; 4.27 vs 4.92 xERA).

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 13-13 on this game · −5% return

  1. Miami Marlins to win3 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Janson Junk is confirmed over JR Ritchie; Junk owns the current-season edge (4.31 vs 4.79 ERA; 4.27 vs 4.92 xERA).
    • Miami's bullpen is 43 pitches lighter over the last three days (188 vs 231), with neither side carrying a reliever on back-to-back days.
    • Atlanta's current-season RHP split is stronger: .324 team xwOBA versus Miami's .313.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • JR Ritchie meets the vulnerability gate: 4.92 xERA, 4.79 ERA, 1.46 WHIP; his recent ERA is 5.93.
    • Miami's nine-man lineup was posted at 11:40 AM; Atlanta's bullpen has 11.0 IP/169 pitches over three days versus Miami's 7.67/127.
    • Miami is only 79-82 with a −1 run differential; Atlanta is 94-67 and 6-4 over its last 10.
    Fade the Arm
    • JR Ritchie shows a 4.92 xERA, with ERA worsening to 5.93 over his last 3 and 6.85 over his last 5 starts.
    • Ritchie's TTO xwOBA climbs from .285 in the first pass to .328, .300, and .370 in passes two through four.
    • Miami's .3129 xwOBA versus right-handers narrowly misses the .315 gate; the qualification rests on SLG and K rate.
  2. Janson Junk under 3.5 pitching strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 7.4% season SwStr% and only 6.35 K/9 point toward a low strikeout baseline.
    • Junk averaged 3.2 strikeouts across his last five starts despite a recent 6-K spike.
    • Junk exceeded 3.5 Ks in three of his last five starts, including six in his most recent outing.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 71/100 (B): 6 of his last 10 starts stayed under 3.5 Ks (60%), meeting the L10 gate.
    • Season average is 3.50 Ks; a 60% season/L5 blend of current form projects 3.32 Ks, 5.1% below the 3.5 line.
    • L5 under rate is only 2 of 5 (40%), and his full-season under rate is 12 of 24 (50%), so the consistency evidence conflicts.
  3. Miami Marlins F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live 0.46; yes/no 0.46/0.55 sum 1.01; MARKET_STATUS_OPEN, tradable true, both sides quoted.
    • Janson Junk L5 WHIP 1.35 and ERA 4.79 versus JR Ritchie 1.69 and 6.84; Miami’s starter matchup is materially cleaner.
    • Junk averaged 4.13 IP/start over his L5, below the 4.7 workload marker; an early exit weakens the F5 edge.
  4. No 2nd-inning tie
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors imply Miami ~53% to win and an 8.5-run environment with ~46% over.
    • 2026 MLB finals: 2,415 games, median 8 runs, mean 8.97, and 49.2% reached 9+; the market is slightly lower.
    • Flat-rate allocation of the anchor environment gives roughly a 48% second-inning draw probability.
    • Second-inning scoring can deviate sharply from the flat-rate baseline despite confirmed starters Janson Junk and JR Ritchie.
  5. Atlanta Braves–Miami Marlins first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors price Miami at 53.5% and the full-game total at 8.5 runs.
    • The full-game 8.5 anchor implies a game centered near 8.5, 9 runs; 2025, 26 MLB finals averaged 9.05 runs, median 8.
    • A five-inning window is roughly half the full-game environment, with starters typically suppressing scoring versus later relief innings.
    • The F5 rung is thinner than the moneyline and full-game total; no target-specific history series is exposed.
  6. Miami Marlins over 3.5 runs scored
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami faces RHP JR Ritchie, whose last-five ERA was 6.84, WHIP 1.69, and xERA 4.92.
    • Miami's confirmed lineup has a .3129 team xwOBA versus right-handers; Griffin Conine, Javier Sanoja, and Heriberto Hernández have strong recent OBP/SLG snapshots.
    • The 1.5-run coherence drift does not identify which team-total rung is wrong; selecting Miami is a directional judgment.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Game under 8.5 total runs
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's total moved from 9 to 8; the one-run move supports a lower-scoring market expectation.
    • All 18 batting-order starters and both probable pitchers were confirmed at 11:30 AM PDT.
    • Both starters carry ERAs above 4.30; JR Ritchie's last-five ERA is 6.84.
  2. Total runs under 8.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
  3. Ha-Seong Kim hits under 0.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting seventh; projected 3.6 PA under the 6, 9 baseline.
    • One hit loses, and a seventh-place hitter can exceed the 3.6-PA projection through extra innings or a long game.
  4. Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins under 0.5 first-inning runs
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson-equivalent half-inning xRuns: T1 0.35; B1 0.29; retractable roof closed at 72°F with no wind.
    • Current 1-6 lineup xwOBA/hard-hit: ATL .303/.169, .274/.191, .351/.309, .300/.264, .309/.258, .271/.216; MIA .363/.291, .294/.231, .347/.305, .287/.257, .244/.192, .275/.152.
    • Ritchie allows .338 xwOBA overall and Miami's top three include .363 and .347 xwOBA hitters.
  5. Javier Sanoja over 0.5 hitsFavoriteHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −310 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 hits in 10 recent games with at least one hit: 90%.
    • Sanoja hits .2825 versus right-handers, 16.2% above the .2432 league split average.
    • Confirmed second hitter in Miami's starting lineup; Janson Junk is a confirmed right-handed starter.
    • Ten-game form is a small sample; one hitless outing materially changes the rate.
  6. Miami Marlins inning 7 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • the 7th-inning draw is 0.64, higher than innings 1-6 (0.53-0.61), despite the full-game total pricing 8.5 runs.
    • The F5 draw is only 0.16, while the full-game over 8.5 is 0.48; the late-inning draw inflation is out of step with the game's run environment.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has 7 appearances and 169 pitches in the last 3 days versus Miami's 4 and 127.
    • Reliever roles and the exact inning-7 arms are not confirmed; Atlanta's high workload may not involve its best leverage relievers.
  7. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.9 runs, fair total line 8.5, win probability 51.8%, push probability 0% (1:45 PM CDT release).
    • Janson Junk and JR Ritchie allow .326 and .338 xwOBA, with modeled starter ERAs of 4.45 and 4.92.
    • The bullpens combined for 18.67 innings and 296 pitches over the prior three days, increasing late-inning volatility.
    • loanDepot park is roof-closed at 72°F with no wind, and its 0.94 run factor suppresses scoring.
  8. JR Ritchie over 3.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −200 on BetMGM

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.93 IP/start and 88.6 pitches/start this season; no IL, rehab, or short-rest flag.
    • L5 K9 is 10.65 versus 8.78 season; removing his 8-K outlier still leaves a 9.45 K9 recent rate.
    • The last-five sample includes an 8-K spike; removing it materially narrows the modeled edge.
  9. Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  10. Miami Marlins run line −1
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Miami −1 at +129 (43.67¢) versus −1.5 at +180 (35.71¢): only a 7.96-point implied gap for the push-bearing rung.
    • A Miami win by two or more is required for profit; an exact one-run win only returns stake.
  11. Atlanta Braves +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US quotes Atlanta +1.5 at 65¢ with a genuine 35.5¢ opposite side; price fits the moderate band.
    • Atlanta is 94-67 with a +118 run differential versus Miami's 79-82 record and +1 differential.
    • JR Ritchie allowed one run with eight strikeouts in his latest listed start; Atlanta also won Saturday 8-3.
    • Miami is 46-34 at home, and Janson Junk's live matchup xERA is 4.27 versus Ritchie's 4.92.
  12. Janson Junk under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 62% for 0, 3 strikeouts versus 54.1% implied by −118.
    • Junk stayed under 3.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Junk is listed as Miami's starter and active on the fresh game-day roster feed.
    • The 10-game sample includes short outings and is noisy; the model may overstate the under.
  13. JR Ritchie 5 or more strikeouts: No
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ritchie averaged 4.23 innings and 4.13 strikeouts across 16 2026 starts; 5+ occurred in 5 of 16.
    • First-TTO K rate was 26.8% versus 16.1% in TTO2; short outings cap the upper tail.
    • Marlins posted an 18.5% K rate versus right-handed pitching across 2,407 plate appearances.
    • Recent five-start sample is stronger: 5+ occurred twice, including 8 Ks last start.
  14. Miami Marlins first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • JR Ritchie: 4.92 xERA, .338 xwOBA allowed, and 5.93 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Ritchie’s recent form worsened further over five starts: 6.85 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.
    • Janson Junk has the stronger current baseline: 4.27 expected ERA in the preview versus Ritchie’s 4.92.
    • Ritchie’s 8.78 season K/9 gives him a path to outperform his expected-run indicators.
  15. Miami Marlins run line +1.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • JR Ritchie’s ERA is 5.93 over his last 3 starts and 6.85 over his last 5, versus 4.79 season ERA.
    • Ritchie’s xERA is 4.92, with TTO xwOBA rising from .285 first time through to .370 fourth time through.
    • Cashing likelihood: Miami can stay within 1.5 through Ritchie’s workload and Atlanta’s recently taxed bullpen; price quality comes from the projection, not payout.
    • Janson Junk is also volatile: 7.36 ERA over his last 3 starts and 4.79 over his last 5.
  16. First-inning runs: No
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted 1-3 hitters: ATL xwOBA vs R .315; MIA xwOBA vs R .327.
    • Junk's first-inning profile: .216 BA, 11.6% K, 19 H and 7 BB in 95 PA.
    • Ritchie's first-inning profile: .152 BA, 36.6% K, 5 H and 8 BB in 41 PA.
    • Ritchie's 8 walks in 41 first-inning PA create a volatile path to an Atlanta run despite his strikeout rate.
  17. Total runs under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-27T09:41:55-07:00. MLB preview has a 94 park run factor and closed roof.
    • Under 7.5 loses at 8 or more runs. The threshold is low.
  18. Javier Sanoja over 1.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +182 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 of Sanoja's last 10 games produced at least two hits; his last five average is 1.6 hits.
    • Sanoja is confirmed active and batting second against right-hander JR Ritchie.
    • Ritchie carries a 4.79 season ERA and .338 xwOBA against, a favorable contact matchup.
    • game sample is noisy, and five multi-hit games can regress sharply.

Questions

Who won Braves vs. Marlins?

The Marlins won 5-3 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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