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FinalOracle Park
Dodgers99-62
5-1
Giants65-96
Score by period
Team12345678910T
LAD00010000045
SF01000000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Los Angeles Dodgers to win −249

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Jack Dreyer: 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.2 K/9; Carson Seymour: 4.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.53 K/9.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-6 on this game · +6% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +40%Won

    Taken at −249 on DraftKings

    3 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Jack Dreyer: 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.2 K/9; Carson Seymour: 4.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.53 K/9.
    • Confirmed lineups favor Los Angeles: Dodgers vs RHP .3384 xwOBA and .2092 K%; Giants vs LHP .2909 xwOBA and .2479 K%.
    • Dreyer has only two listed starts, creating meaningful opener/length uncertainty despite the stronger season line.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Carson Seymour clears the vulnerability gate: 1.52 WHIP and .380 xwOBA allowed; the Dodgers face a right-hander.
    • San Francisco's bullpen has logged 10.0 innings and 156 pitches over three days versus 7.0 innings and 102 pitches for Los Angeles.
    • The Dodgers' own bullpen has still worked 7.0 innings and 102 pitches in three days, with one arm flagged on back-to-back days.
    Drift
    • Dodgers are +197 in run differential with a .6272 Pythagorean win rate; San Francisco is −87 and .4442.
    • Jack Dreyer brings a 3.52 xERA, 10.2 K/9 and .2915 CSW; Carson Seymour has a 4.75 ERA, 6.53 K/9 and .2412 CSW.
    • A single homer, defensive error or bullpen event can overturn a strong MLB favorite.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Polymarket anchors imply a Dodgers 55.5% full-game win chance and a 6.5-run total with Over at 59.5c.
    • The 2024-26 MLB empirical scoring baseline is right-skewed: 8.88 mean runs, 8.0 median, 15-run 90th percentile.
    • The Dodgers first-five +1.5 quote is only 69c, below the full-game +1.5 quote of 72c despite a shorter window with fewer chances to lose by two.
    • San Francisco leads 1-0 in the bottom of the second, so the live state may be legitimately depressing the Dodgers' first-five cover probability.
  3. No 1st-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal-coherence fit: Dodgers win anchor is 69.5%; full-game total anchor is 8.5 runs.
    • 2026 MLB empirical baseline is 8.97 runs/game, median 8; the fitted game environment remains near 8.5 runs.
    • Allocating the anchor total across nine innings gives roughly 0.94 first-inning runs; the fitted tie probability is about 45-48%.
    • First-inning scoring is not flat: starter quality and lineup order can move the tie probability materially.
  4. LAD @ SF first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors center the scoring picture near 8.5 runs: Polymarket US total is 49c over / 51.5c under at 8.5.
    • Half of the 8.5 anchor is 4.25 runs before adjustment; starters generally suppress first-five scoring versus later relief innings.
    • The first-five 4.5 rung is nearly a coin flip at 51c over / 50c under, leaving the under on the lower side of the fitted distribution.
    • The structural gap is modest: 50c is close to the fitted fair price, so variance can overwhelm it.
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 runs scored
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • REFERENCE; raw Kalshi mid_price 0.56 is a fraction, i.e. 56.5%, not cents.
    • Carson Seymour allows .3799 xwOBA with a 1.52 WHIP and 6.53 K/9 across 30.3 innings.
    • San Francisco relief logged 10.0 innings and 156 pitches over three days, with one back-to-back arm.
    • Oracle Park is run-suppressing: 90 run factor and 79 home-run factor.
  6. Total runs under 8.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Francisco versus left-handed pitching: .2905 xwOBA over 1,230 PA, producing a −0.50-run ledger.
    • Carson Seymour has only 3 starts, so starter coverage is Partial despite both starters being confirmed.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Scott Bandura under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −439 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of 10 recent games without an RBI (100% under 0.5).
    • Confirmed ninth in San Francisco's starting lineup.
    • Jack Dreyer's 10.2 K/9 is 29% above the 2026 pitcher average of 7.90.
    • Only 11 plate appearances underpin Bandura's lefty split; the sample is extremely thin.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers inning 8 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • inning 8 prices SF at 33¢ versus 19, 21¢ in innings 1, 7, while LAD is 69.5¢ full-game.
    • F5 LAD is 59¢; inning-8 SF nearly matches LAD at 33¢ without a matching game-level signal.
    • SF used 9 arms and 10 appearances in three days; LAD used 6 arms and 7 appearances.
    • River Ryan is not officially posted and the Dodgers starting lineup remains unpublished; inning 8 is bullpen-led but uncertainty remains.
  3. Game total under 8.5 runs
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 8.1, fair total line 8.0, Under 8.5 win probability 55.6%, push probability 10.8%; lineup/weather lock 1:30 PM CDT and release 1:35 PM CDT.
    • Oracle Park's 90 run-factor, 62°F temperature, and open roof suppress baseline scoring despite 8-mph wind out to center.
    • Official 1, 9 lineups were confirmed at 1:30 PM CDT; the model includes the Dodgers' strong right-handed lineup but projects limited Giants response.
    • Los Angeles faces Carson Seymour's .3799 xwOBA allowed and 4.75 ERA; an early Dodgers outburst can break the under quickly.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  5. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • .4585 2026 slugging versus right-handed pitching across 357 PA.
    • Confirmed batting second and active in the starting lineup.
    • Carson Seymour: 4.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .3799 expected wOBA allowed.
    • Oracle Park's 79 HR factor can suppress Betts's extra-base outcomes.
  6. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    0%Push

    Taken at −215 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carson Seymour: .3799 xwOBA allowed, 4.75 ERA, and 1.52 WHIP; recent 9.33-IP line rose to 8.68 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
    • Jack Dreyer brings a .290 xwOBA allowed and 10.2 K/9 season profile against a posted Dodgers lineup led by Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman.
    • Dodgers' right-handed-opponent split: .3384 xwOBA and .4177 SLG; Giants' listed lineup is materially weaker, with four hitters below a .270 xwOBA.
    • Dreyer's recent form is a small two-start sample and his last-three ERA was 4.50 despite the strong season quality-of-contact profile.
  7. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carson Seymour's 2026 line is 4.75 ERA, 4.38 xFIP and .3799 xwOBA allowed; the vulnerable arm is San Francisco's.
    • the 11:30 PDT lineup confirms Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Tucker in the Dodgers' top four; both listed starters cleared the IL check.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate-high from the posted platoon and lineup; price quality is separate and comes from the better-than-sharp-reference ProphetX rung.
    • Most likely loss: Seymour survives and San Francisco keeps it to a one-run game; Dodgers −1.5 loses despite a Dodgers win.
  8. First-inning runs: No
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • top-three xwOBA proxy is LAD .372 vs RHP and SF .295 vs LHP.
    • Oracle Park run factor is 90 and home-run factor 79; the park suppresses the combined first-frame environment.
    • Full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference; it answers a different innings distribution involving later middle-order and bullpen innings.
    • The Dodgers' confirmed first three are elite versus RHP: Ohtani/Betts/Freeman xwOBA .408/.329/.380.
  9. San Francisco Giants to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Final ProphetX pull: 2026-09-27 11:32:25 AM PDT; three book levels. Sharp reference: Pinnacle Giants +219, context only.
    • Dodgers starter Jack Dreyer has a 3.16 ERA and 10.20 K/9; Carson Seymour has a 4.75 ERA and 6.53 K/9. The projection context opposes the flow.

Questions

Who won Dodgers vs. Giants?

The Dodgers won 5-1 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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