App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalPetco Park
Diamondbacks86-75
4-9
Padres90-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI0000013004
SD00111132-9

Top model pick, graded

Won

No 8th-inning draw 39¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Liquid anchors imply about an 8.0-run game: Diamondbacks moneyline 58.5%, full-game Over 7.5 at 53.5% and Over 8.5 at 45.5%.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-13 on this game · −19% return

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks to win2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    2 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Soroka: 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.89 K/9; Vásquez: 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.68 K/9.
    • Confirmed lineups project Arizona at 111.5 weighted wRC+ versus San Diego at 99.3; xwOBA .327 versus .303.
    • San Diego's season baseline is stronger: 105 wRC+ and 4.00 team FIP versus Arizona's 102.3 and 4.24.
    Selective Pressure
    • Soroka is the confirmed listed starter: 8.89 K/9, 3.31 ERA, 4.09 xERA; Vásquez has 5.68 K/9 and 5.62 xERA.
    • Arizona's bullpen has used 17.33 innings/298 pitches over seven days versus San Diego's 24.33/409.
    • San Diego is 50-30 at home and has gone 5-1 in its last six; Arizona is 4-2 in that span.
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks first-five to win (first 5 innings)2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −150 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Independent fair probability 64%; fair price approximately −178 versus FanDuel −150.
    • Soroka owns a .3002 season expected wOBA allowed; Vásquez is at .3541, a material starter-quality gap.
    • Vásquez has a 26-start, 133.7-inning season workload, so the Padres starter can still cover five innings.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • 61% independent F5 win estimate; FanDuel −150 implies 60%, a modest positive price gap.
    • Soroka: .311 xwOBA allowed and 4.09 xERA; Vásquez: .358 and 5.62, a clear starter-quality edge.
    • Vásquez's recent form is strong: 1.95 ERA over his last five starts, so the season-quality gap may overstate today's edge.
  3. Michael Soroka over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on DraftKings

    2 modelsK’s, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • Last five starts produced 27 Ks in 103 TBF (26.2%); removing the 9-K outlier leaves 18 in 78.
    • Projected roughly 22 TBF and 5.6 Ks; model P(4+) is about 81% versus −164 implied 62.1%.
    • Recent pitch counts ranged from 58 to 93, so a shorter leash can erase the rate edge.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 8 of Soroka's last 10 appearances cleared 3.5 Ks; he averaged 5.0 strikeouts.
    • His season baseline is 8.89 K/9 across 111.3 innings.
    • The recent sample is only 10 appearances and includes one zero-strikeout outing.
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres first-five total under 2.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies a near-even game: San Diego about 52.5% to win.
    • Full-game total anchor prices over 7.5 at 34.5c, fitting a below-7.5-run center.
    • Live state is 0-0 through the top of the third, leaving only 2.5 innings in the F5 window.
    • Only 2.5 innings remain in the F5 window; one crooked inning can beat the under.
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • moneyline anchor implies Arizona wins about 59%; total anchors center the game near 8 runs.
    • Empirical MLB final sample: 4,778 games, median total 8 and mean 8.93; the fitted baseline uses that right-skew rather than a symmetric shortcut.
    • F5 total anchor is 4.5, with Over 50¢ / Under 51¢; in that five-inning scoring slice, a 1.5-run cushion should cover in the low-80% range.
    • The F5 spread is thinner than the moneyline and total anchors; a displayed quote can move quickly before first pitch.
  6. No 8th-inning draw
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply about an 8.0-run game: Diamondbacks moneyline 58.5%, full-game Over 7.5 at 53.5% and Over 8.5 at 45.5%.
    • A 2026 MLB final sample of 2,415 games averaged 8.97 runs with an 8-run median; nine-inning calibration puts one-inning ties near 50%, below this 67c draw quote.
    • Pinnacle independently has Arizona −150 and an 8-run total near even money, supporting the anchor direction; this is primarily internal coherence.
    • The per-inning estimate uses a flat-rate approximation; eighth-inning bullpen usage can materially change the run environment.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Arizona over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's posted lineup has a .315 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Marte, Perdomo, Arenado and Carroll supply a strong top five.
    • Vásquez has only 5.25 season K/9 and 79.8 pitches per start, limiting his escape route against a lineup with a .199 strikeout rate versus righties.
    • Petco's park-factor run index is 90, a meaningful scoring headwind.
  2. Michael Soroka over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five starts: 9, 6, 3, 5, and 4 strikeouts, averaging 5.4; recent workload averages about 21 batters faced.
    • John Tumpane's starter-specific called-strike fit is nearly neutral, so the projection clears the threshold without needing a favorable umpire boost.
    • The distribution is sensitive to the expected 21-batter workload; a short outing makes five strikeouts difficult even with the matchup adjustment.
  3. Corbin Carroll hits under 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted fifth in Arizona's lineup; projected plate appearances: 3.6.
    • Vásquez's low-CSW, low-strikeout profile can create extra contact and a fourth plate appearance.
  4. Manny Machado over 2 hitsFavorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 games stayed below 2 hits (80%).
    • Soroka allowed a .1707 average to right-handed hitters in 2026, 20.2% below the .214 league split.
    • Machado is confirmed batting second and is right-handed; the matchup uses Soroka's weaker-hit split.
    • The recent rate is exactly the 80% gate, with only two qualifying misses.
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game total prices 7.5 runs at 0.54 over, but the 7th-inning draw is 0.66; late scoring is underrepresented.
    • Full-game Arizona win is 0.59 and F5 Arizona win is 0.50; the 7th-inning Arizona contract is only 0.28 despite the same directional favorite.
    • Padres bullpen has 10.33 IP and 191 pitches over three days versus Arizona's 8.67 IP and 153 pitches.
    • The venue's per-inning board may be using a low-scoring distribution that is coherent after accounting for multi-run innings.
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks win the 1st inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • F5 prices Arizona at 0.51 with only 0.17 on a tie, while each first-five inning ladder prices Arizona only 0.26, 0.28 and draws 0.54, 0.62.
    • The 1st-inning Arizona contract is 0.26, the same as innings 2 and 5 despite being the clearest starter-vs-top-of-order spot.
    • PROJECTION supports the coherence direction: Arizona's Michael Soroka has 8.89 K/9 and .2297 first-inning BA allowed; San Diego's Randy Vásquez has 5.68 K/9 and .2778 first-inning BA allowed.
    • The F5 board may reflect aggregate run separation rather than a direct sum of inning-winner prices; the coherence gap is structural, not externally benchmarked.
  7. Game total under 8 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.8 total runs; fair total line 7.5; Under 8 win probability 48%; push probability 13% (model snapshot 1:47 PM CDT).
    • Posted Padres nine averages .287 versus right-handed pitching by listed hitter xwOBA; the bottom four are especially contact-light.
    • Open Petco conditions were 77°F with 7-mph wind at 1:40 PM CDT; John Tumpane's observed average is 9.5 runs.
    • Vásquez allows .358 xwOBA, so Arizona could produce an early crooked inning before San Diego's weaker lower order matters.
  8. Game total under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • exact contract is game total under 8, which pushes and refunds at exactly 8 runs rather than losing.
    • Under 8 loses on 9 or more runs; the two listed starters and current run environment can still produce a high-scoring game.
  9. San Diego Padres spread +1.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Padres +1.5 wins on a one-run loss; adjacent Padres +1 returns stake on that exact outcome.
    • Pinnacle's captured Padres +1.5 price was −130; ProphetX offers −123.
    • ProphetX quotes and line IDs can move before first pitch; Michael Soroka and Randy Vásquez were verified as the probable starters, but late changes remain possible.
  10. Gabriel Moreno over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    0%Push

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season hit-game rate is 72.1%; Moreno has recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games.
    • Moreno is confirmed batting third, with 45 PA and 16 hits over his last 10 games.
    • His 2026 split versus right-handed pitching is .322 across 402 PA; Randy Vásquez is a right-hander with a 15% K rate.
    • The recent 9-for-10 hit-game run is a small, hot sample and may regress.
  11. Michael Soroka over 3.5 pitching strikeouts
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.3 K average across 20 2026 starts; 51.4% projection margin over the 3.5 line.
    • Soroka cleared 3.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%) and 4 of his last 5 (80%).
    • Season hit rate is 14 of 20 (70%), above the 55% preferred baseline.
    • Current streak is only two straight overs, below the preferred three-hit streak.
  12. San Diego Padres to win
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Michael Soroka shows 4.09 xERA against a 3.31 ERA, with his last-three ERA at 4.70.
    • Confirmed 9:40 AM lineup includes Manny Machado and the full Padres starter group; both listed starters are off the active IL.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate-plus, driven by Soroka's quality-gap/recent-form signal and San Diego's platoon profile.
    • Soroka still owns a strong 3.31 ERA and 3.07 FIP over 111.3 innings; the xERA gap may be noise.
  13. First-inning runs: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • announced top-four lineups are backed by .329 Arizona and .326 San Diego team xwOBA proxies versus right-handers.
    • Randy Vásquez allowed a .278 first-inning BA with 4 HR in 98 PA; Michael Soroka allowed .230 with 3 HR in 85 PA.
    • Petco's 2026 park factors are 90 runs and 94 HR; 77°F with a 7-mph crosswind is not an obvious first-frame boost.
    • Vásquez's .278 first-inning BA and 4 HR in 22 games can turn one mistake into an early run.
  14. San Diego Padres spread +1
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Board pull as_of_pt 2026-09-27T11:42:27-07:00. Confirmed starters: Michael Soroka and Randy Vásquez.
    • Projection does not corroborate: Soroka xwOBA allowed .311 versus Vásquez .358 favors Arizona.
  15. Game total under 8.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp reference corroborates direction: Pinnacle under 8 at −111; ProphetX history moved over probability from 0.50 to 0.49 by 9:30am.
    • The full-game total ladder leans under at 7.5, 8, and 8.5; this is a one-leg ticket, not a manufactured parlay.
    • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: 4.56x is below the brief's 10x recommended threshold.

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

The Padres won 9-4 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.