App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalRate Field
Rockies58-103
2-4
White Sox83-78
Score by period
Team123456789T
COL0010000102
CHW00400000-4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago White Sox F5 winner (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Top-three lineup xwOBA versus left-handed pitching: Chicago .333 (Grichuk/Pham/Murakami) versus Colorado .317 (McCarthy/Norby/Goodman).

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 17-13 on this game · +11% return

  1. Chicago White Sox to win3 models agree
    +61%Won

    Taken at −163 on DraftKings

    3 modelsbully ball strategy, Fade the Arm +1
    Why 3 models like it
    bully ball strategy
    • Anthony Kay's 4.65 ERA/1.39 WHIP starter profile is materially better than Kyle Freeland's 6.58 ERA/1.51 WHIP.
    • Chicago owns the matchup hitting edge versus left-handed pitching: .322 team xwOBA versus Colorado's .287.
    • Chicago's bullpen has heavier recent usage: 12.0 innings and 164 pitches over three days versus Colorado's 7.33 and 115.
    Fade the Arm
    • Kyle Freeland: 6.58 ERA, 5.47 xERA, 10.12 L3 ERA; his recent run-prevention profile is deteriorating.
    • Chicago's posted lineup owns a .3218 xwOBA and .4053 SLG versus left-handed pitching; xwOBA clears the desk gate.
    • Freeland's 3.64 xFIP is materially better than his 5.47 xERA, so his recent ERA may overstate the true talent gap.
    Deep Book
    • Single most likely loss: Colorado wins outright despite the heavier White Sox resting size.
    • Order-flow ratio is 3.34x, below the 10x recommended threshold; this is a LEAN, not a recommended play.
  2. Kyle Freeland under 4.5 pitching strikeouts2 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145 on BetMGM

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 5.09 K/9 over his last five starts, with 13 total strikeouts and unders in four.
    • After returning September 14, he logged only 3.0 and 4.0 innings on 69 and 50 pitches.
    • His full-season profile is stronger: 7.26 K/9 and 5.25 innings per start.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100; estimated 72% under versus 60% implied at −150.
    • Freeland stayed under 4.5 Ks in 18 of 26 starts (69.2%), including 7 of his last 10.
    • Chicago strikes out 24.5% versus left-handed pitching, creating a legitimate over path.
  3. Hunter Goodman over 0.5 hits2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −175 on BetMGM

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 72% hit probability versus BetMGM −175 (63.6% implied), an 8.4-point value margin.
    • Goodman recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 appearances, averaging 1.2 hits.
    • Recent 9-for-10 hit-game run is a small, streak-sensitive sample.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 76/100; estimated 75% hit probability versus 63.6% implied at BetMGM −175.
    • Goodman recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and 4 of his last 5.
    • Season hit-game rate is only modestly above the 55% preference despite the recent surge.
  4. Chicago White Sox F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Top-three lineup xwOBA versus left-handed pitching: Chicago .333 (Grichuk/Pham/Murakami) versus Colorado .317 (McCarthy/Norby/Goodman).
    • Starter underlying edge is modestly Chicago: Kay xwOBA-against .342 and xERA 5.05 versus Freeland .354 and 5.47.
    • Both starters have sub-4.7 L5 innings per start: Kay 4.2 and Freeland 4.6, limiting this to Tier 2.
  5. Colorado Rockies–Chicago White Sox first-five total under 2.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Chicago win 55¢; full-game over 7.5 only 40.5¢.
    • At 0-0 through 2½ innings, the fitted anchors imply restrained remaining scoring, not 3+ runs in 2½ innings.
    • 2026 MLB finals show a right-skewed scoring shape: 1,383 of 2,415 games reached at least 8 runs.
    • One multi-run inning before the fifth ends the position; baseball scoring is discrete and volatile.
  6. Chicago White Sox team total over 4.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors agree: White Sox win 59.5c and full-game total 8.5 at roughly 48.5c over.
    • 2026 MLB empirical check: in 415 games totaling 8-9 runs, home teams scored 5+ 55.7% of the time.
    • Fitting the 59.5% home-win anchor to the 8.5-run environment puts Chicago near 4.7 runs and 5+ near 56-58%.
    • The fitted probability is anchor-derived, not an independent team projection; model error can erase the estimated 8-10 point gap.
Show all 26 picks
  1. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply about 59.3% Chicago win probability and an 8.5-run scoring environment.
    • That fitted draw rate implies roughly 46.8% for NO; Polymarket US prices NO at 37c.
    • Pinnacle's −153 Chicago moneyline independently agrees with the board's roughly 59% home-win anchor.
    • Ninth-inning scoring is not flat-rate; late bullpen usage could materially lower or raise the draw rate.
  2. Chicago White Sox over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kyle Freeland owns a 6.58 ERA, 5.47 xERA and .354 xwOBA allowed; his last five starts show a 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
    • Confirmed Chicago starters include Murakami (.349 xwOBA, 131.8 wRC+), Antonacci (.346, 120.6) and Grichuk (.332, 137.6).
    • The lineup's bottom half is volatile; Doyle, Acuña, Romo and Pham each carry sub-72 wRC+ in the profile read.
  3. Kyle Freeland earned runs allowed over 2.5
    +81%Won

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Last 3 starts: 5, 3, and 4 earned runs allowed; 10.12 ERA and 2.34 WHIP versus 6.58 and 1.51 season marks.
    • Chicago's latest season wRC+ is 106.8, clearing the 105 opposing-offense threshold.
    • Chicago's implied team-total market is 4.5 runs, meeting the brief's scoring threshold.
    • The recent sample is only 3 starts and 10.67 innings.
  4. Chicago White Sox not to win
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180Up 10% over 168 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Cashing likelihood: Freeland is the weaker starter, 6.58 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .354 xwOBA allowed; his L5 ERA is 5.48.
    • Cashing likelihood: all nine Chicago starters were posted at 11:40 AM PDT; the lineup's LHP split is .413 SLG with a .2202 K rate.
    • Cashing likelihood: Chicago is 6-3 over its last nine; Colorado is 1-6 over its last seven, while both bullpens had zero workload yesterday.
    • Anthony Kay is also vulnerable: 4.65 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .342 xwOBA allowed and a 7.29 L5 ERA.
  5. Colson Montgomery HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
  6. Tommy Pham under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    +33%Won

    Taken at −304 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tommy Pham recorded 0 RBI in 9 of his last 10 games (90% hit rate).
    • Confirmed batting second in Chicago's starting lineup for this game.
    • DraftKings prices the under at −304, below the recent-hit-rate estimate's roughly 75% break-even threshold.
    • RBI outcomes depend heavily on teammates reaching base and lineup sequencing.
  7. Colorado Rockies win the 8th inningLong shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US has no external sharp per-inning winner rung; this is a structural call.
    • I8 draw is 0.63, the highest quoted draw through I8, versus 0.56, 0.60 in I1, I6 and 0.61 in I7.
    • The same board prices F5 draw at 0.16 and F5 over 4.5 runs at 0.50; the full-game over 8.5 is 0.48, not an exceptionally dormant late-game setup.
    • The three I8 prices sum to 1.19, so part of the apparent gap may be venue spread and fees rather than mispricing.
  8. Game total runs over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 9.3; fair total line 9.0; Over 8.5 win probability 56.8%; push probability 12.5%; lineups locked at 1:40 PM CDT.
    • Anthony Kay and Kyle Freeland carry 2026 xERAs of 5.05 and 5.47, with opponent xwOBAs allowed of .342 and .354.
    • Against left-handed pitching, Chicago's lineup has a .3218 xwOBA and Colorado's has a .2874 xwOBA; both official 1-9 lineups were verified.
    • The 66°F, 7-mph left-to-right wind and 0.98 park-runs factor are close to neutral rather than a strong hitter boost.
  9. Kyle Freeland 4+ strikeouts: No
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 2.9 Ks from 3.85-pitch-based innings and 6.75 L3 K/9.
    • Only one of Freeland's last four starts reached 80 pitches; recent counts were 69, 50, 66, 95.
    • Last five starts produced 2, 1, 5, 2, and 3 strikeouts; workload is the primary suppressor.
    • Freeland's 7.26 season K/9 and 7.75 L5 K/9 from the prior-season profile can support four strikeouts if his leash expands.
  10. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • No same-line 7.5 sharp sportsbook reference was posted; this is a permitted no-sharp-reference Tier 3 cohort claim.
    • Most likely loss: Anthony Kay and Kyle Freeland both allow early traffic, but the game finishes below eight runs; full-game variance remains wide.
  11. Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox first-inning total runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top four are McCarthy/Norby/Goodman/Carrigg and Grichuk/Pham/Murakami/Doyle.
    • Both offenses show only 67.1%, 68.1% first-inning scoreless rates; baseline blend implies 54.3% YRFI.
    • Freeland allowed a .333 first-inning BA with 4 HR in 121 PA; top-four contact and damage keep the home half live.
    • First-inning samples are modest: 25 starts/121 PA for Freeland and 30 starts/130 PA for Kay.
  12. Game total under 8
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0-7 total runs wins; exactly 8 pushes/refunds; 9+ loses.
    • League-wide frequency is not a game-specific run-distribution model.
  13. Chicago White Sox run line −1
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • this exact White Sox −1 contract wins by 2+ runs, pushes on exactly 1, and loses on any Rockies win.
    • ProphetX quotes White Sox −1 at −105/51.22¢ versus −1.5 at +136/42.37¢; the raw implied gap is only 8.85 points.
    • The contract loses on any outright Rockies win; an exactly one-run White Sox win returns stake rather than profit.
  14. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • I make the over roughly 54%, versus Pinnacle's devigged 51.7% reference probability.
    • Freeland's 6.58 ERA and 5.47 xERA face Kay's 4.65 ERA and 5.05 xERA; neither starter is a strong run-prevention anchor.
    • Direct bullpen state shows 7.33 COL innings and 12.0 CWS innings over the prior three days.
    • Bellino's 8.16 average total and 25.8% over-9 rate are a meaningful run-suppression signal.
  15. Kyle Freeland 5 or more strikeouts: No
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model innings distribution: 3, 4 IP 0.45, 5, 6 IP 0.40, 7+ IP 0.15; mean 4.7.
    • Model strikeout distribution: 0, 2 K 0.49, 3, 4 K 0.28, 5+ K 0.23.
    • Freeland’s last five starts averaged 4.6 IP and 2.6 K; his L5 rate is 5.09 K/9.
    • Both bullpens are heavily used: CWS 15.0 IP/213 pitches and COL 13.0 IP/209 pitches over three days.
  16. Chicago White Sox run line −1.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Freeland's last two starts: 3.0/4.0 IP, 5/3 ER; L3/L5 ERAs are 10.12/10.67.
    • Third-TTO xwOBA allowed is .4182; recent fastball velocity 88.37, 88.97 mph versus 89.84 season.
    • Confirmed White Sox lineup owns .3218 xwOBA and .4053 SLG versus lefties; lineup posted 9:40 AM.
    • A one-run White Sox win loses this −1.5 ticket; the run-line margin adds variance.
  17. Chicago White Sox wins first 3 innings
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kyle Freeland's 2026 first-inning profile is poor: .333 BA and .3662 xwOBA allowed in 121 PA.
    • Freeland's third-time-through sample is worse: .4182 xwOBA allowed over 115 PA, relevant as F3 reaches the middle order.
    • Anthony Kay's 2026 first- and third-time-through xwOBA allowed are .3011 and .3194, materially cleaner than Freeland's.
    • Chicago's 2026 split versus left-handed pitching is only .3113 xwOBA, while Colorado's is .3160; the offense edge is not decisive.
  18. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning-specific estimate is 54%; no sharp RFI line exists.
    • Posted top threes: COL xwOBA .329 vs L; CWS xwOBA .352 vs L.
    • Kay first-inning BA .252; Freeland first-inning BA .333, with first-TTO xwOBA .301/.366.
    • Rate Field is a 98 run-factor park; its left-handed run factor is 90, suppressing this read.
  19. Colorado Rockies spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  20. Chicago White Sox F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks

Questions

Who won Rockies vs. White Sox?

The White Sox won 4-2 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.