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FinalAmerican Family Field
Cardinals77-84
4-6
Brewers102-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
STL0000000404
MIL30210000-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win −205

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Jacob Misiorowski: 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 13.13 K/9 and .223 xwOBA allowed.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-13 on this game · +9% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to winFavorite7 models agreeHigh conviction
    +49%Won

    Taken at −205 on FanDuel

    7 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, MLB ML Deep Dive +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 13.13 K/9 and .223 xwOBA allowed.
    • Andre Pallante: 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.08 K/9 and .309 xwOBA allowed.
    • The Brewers bullpen has still logged 15.33 innings in three days; the workload edge is pitch-quality based, not a clean rest advantage.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • 69% independent win estimate; fair line approximately −223 versus FanDuel −205.
    • Misiorowski: 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 247 strikeouts; Pallante: 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 106 strikeouts.
    • The 69% estimate is only modestly above FanDuel's roughly 67% break-even price; value is not large.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: Milwaukee's posted nine-man lineup versus RHP owns .3155 xwOBA, .4013 SLG and a low .2106 K rate.
    • Andre Pallante clears two vulnerability gates: 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP; his .321 xwOBA allowed is less concerning but not enough to offset the baserunners.
    • Pallante's .321 xwOBA allowed and 4.03 expected ERA show the headline ERA overstates some of his true weakness.
    bully ball strategy
    • Model: Milwaukee 70% win probability; fair line −233 versus FanDuel −205.
    • Misiorowski: 2.83 xwOBA allowed, 3.62 FIP, 11.86 K/9; Pallante: 3.21, 4.16, 6.14.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen worked 9.0 innings over three days; late leverage could be less optimal.
  2. Game total over 7.53 models agreeHigh conviction
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    3 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Bello +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Milwaukee owns a 111.3 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching; St. Louis starter Andre Pallante carries a 4.03 xERA.
    • Bullpens have logged 15.33 Milwaukee innings and 12.33 St. Louis innings over the last three days.
    • Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski has a 2.07 xERA, .223 xwOBA allowed, and 13.13 K/9.
    Bello
    • Pinnacle references Over 7 at −115; FanDuel posts Over 7.5 at +104, half-run plus-price discrepancy.
    • Milwaukee averaged 4.5 runs across its last 10; St. Louis averaged 3.1.
    • Misiorowski's .223 slate xwOBA-against snapshot and 20 strikeouts in his last three starts can suppress St. Louis.
    Deep Book
    • Projection context: Misiorowski xwOBA allowed .223; Pallante .309. No MLB model confirms the flow.
    • FanDuel under 7.5 −128 is direct resistance; the exchange imbalance may be stale or hedged.
  3. Andre Pallante over 15.5 outs recorded2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Projected 16.8 outs; 1.3-out edge over the 15.5 line clears the brief threshold.
    • Pallante has reached 16+ outs in 18 of 28 2026 starts (64.3%).
    • Three of Pallante's last five starts stopped at exactly 15 outs, making the one-out hook highly live.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated 57% true probability versus 45.7% break-even at +119: +11.3 percentage points.
    • Pallante averages 16.8 outs per start this season (157.0 IP in 28 starts).
    • He finished exactly five innings in 3 of his last 10 starts, making 15 outs and losing this line.
  4. Game total under 7.5 runs2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, cash-first mlb under hunter
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 6.8 runs, fair total line 7.0, under win probability 60.7%, push probability 10.5%; inputs timestamped 1:41 PM CDT, Sep 27, 2026.
    • Jacob Misiorowski's live probable profile shows a 2.07 xERA slate estimate, .223 xwOBA allowed, 13.13 K/9 and .803 WHIP.
    • Andre Pallante carries a 4.03 slate xERA and .309 xwOBA allowed, giving Milwaukee a clear path to a crooked inning.
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Fair total 6.8 runs; estimated Under 7.5 cash probability 60% versus 56.1% raw price implication.
    • Jacob Misiorowski allows a .223 expected wOBA; St. Louis is at .296 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Derek Thomas has a 9.89 average total and 60.7% over-9 rate across 25 games.
  5. Jacob Misiorowski over 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 15.7% whiff rate and 13.13 K/9 lead a high-end strikeout profile.
    • 12.56 K/9 over his last three starts and 11.47 over his last five.
    • St. Louis strikes out only 21.9% versus right-handed pitching, below the 25% prime-over threshold.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • Pinnacle's 10:45 AM 6.5-K anchor (−101 over / −131 under) de-vigs to 46.8% for 7+ Ks.
    • A confirmed nine-man Cardinals lineup at 10:40 AM supplies the batter-specific inputs for the shifted Poisson-binomial distribution.
    • The 46.8% anchor is only a modest probability edge; one or two plate appearances can decide a 6.5 line.
  6. Milwaukee Brewers −1.5Favorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live anchors: Milwaukee moneyline no-price is 89.5%; Brewers lead 3-0 in the top of the 2nd.
    • Full-game total anchor is Over 8.5 at 55.5%, supporting a scoring environment with margin-tail room.
    • External live reference agrees: FanDuel/DraftKings make Milwaukee roughly a 96% moneyline favorite and list −4.5.
    • 0 lead can evaporate, and a one-run final loses despite Milwaukee's current control.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Any run in the 1st inning
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ML anchor implies Milwaukee near 65%; total ladder centers the game around 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 empirical totals are right-skewed: 8.97-run mean versus 8-run median.
    • Anchor-fitted first-inning slice puts YRFI roughly around 50% after starter suppression.
    • Misiorowski’s 1.86 ERA and 13.13 K/9 could suppress early contact below the fitted rate.
  2. No 2nd-inning tie
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies Milwaukee near 65%; full-game total ladder centers near 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 MLB scoring is right-skewed: 2,415 games averaged 8.97 runs, supporting a lower fitted 7.5-run environment here.
    • A 7.5-run environment implies roughly 0.8 runs per inning; balanced scoring gives a routine inning tie near 52, 56%.
    • Misiorowski and Pallante could create an unusually quiet second inning despite the full-game anchors.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers over 4.5 runs
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Milwaukee lineup has six left-handed hitters against right-handed starter Andre Pallante.
    • Milwaukee's .3272 xwOBA versus RHP meets Pallante's .309 xwOBA allowed and 4.03 expected ERA.
    • Pallante's season ERA is 3.61, while Milwaukee's RHP split is .2595 average and .4097 slugging.
  4. Andre Pallante over 3.5 hits allowed
    +97%Won

    Taken at −103 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 16 hits allowed across Pallante's last 16 innings; he cleared 3.5 in 2 of his last 3 starts.
    • Milwaukee owns a 110.5 wRC+ overall as of today and a .3276 xwOBA versus right-handers over the last 30 days.
    • Milwaukee's posted team-total market is 4.5 runs, meeting the matchup's elevated-scoring threshold.
    • Pallante's season WHIP is a solid 1.24, and his last-three-start WHIP is only 1.25.
  5. Total runs over 7.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bullpen ledger was +0.40 runs to each offense: STL 12.33 IP/3d and MIL 15.33 IP/3d; total +0.80 before suppression.
    • Pinnacle is 7.0 while Polymarket is 7.5; the whole-number push-to-half-run conversion is modeled.
  6. Iván Herrera hits over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lineup posted: Herrera bats 2nd, projected 4.3 PA; vs RHP .2365 AVG/.3124 xwOBA across 494 PA.
    • Most likely loss is no hit in roughly four plate appearances; one binary outcome is high variance.
  7. St. Louis Cardinals under 5.5 team runsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +17%Won

    Taken at −600 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −600 at DraftKings is inside the required −300 to −1000 chalk band.
    • Cardinals stayed under 5.5 runs in all 10 most recent games.
    • Misiorowski's .223 expected wOBA allowed is 28.4% below the .3113 pitcher-profile average.
    • A six-run Cardinals outburst loses; five of the last 10 were still close at 5 runs or fewer.
  8. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at −230 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski: 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 13.13 K/9 versus Pallante: 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.08 K/9.
    • Recent 2026 form favors Milwaukee's starter: 0.63 ERA over three starts versus Pallante's 4.50.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed first-five lineup leads STL versus right-handers in xwOBA (.3155 to .2958) and wRC+ (110.5 to 97.9).
    • Misiorowski averages about 4.9 innings in his recent 2026 sample, so a fifth-inning reliever could matter.
  9. 9th-inning drawFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee leads 3-0; full-game Brewers price is 0.90 and F5 Brewers price is 0.95.
    • The i9 ladder prices Brewers to win the inning at 0.13 despite a lead that normally removes the bottom half.
    • All three i9 outcomes are live and quoted: draw 0.82, Cardinals 0.27, Brewers 0.13; venue read timestamp 12:40:59 PDT.
    • Cardinals could score at least four in the top ninth, forcing Milwaukee to bat and creating a Brewers inning-win path.
  10. Andre Pallante under 4.5 strikeouts
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on BetMGM

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model λ≈3.0 Ks; Poisson/negative-binomial blend gives roughly 77, 81% for 4 or fewer versus 60% break-even at −150.
    • Cross-source whiff signals agree: 20.9% whiff, 9.3% SwStr, 26.7% CSW; his primary four-seam/sinker whiffs are 14.5%/11.4%.
    • A 5.4-IP/23-BF workload still supplies enough opportunity for five Ks despite the weak rate.
  11. Jacob Misiorowski under 5.5 strikeouts
    +125%Won

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Workload: last-four pitch counts 44, 82, 93, 92; a fresh pregame report expects another limited-count start.
    • Rung comparison: 6+ NO clears the normal one-K separation; 4+/5+ NO lack separation, while YES rungs fail the workload gate.
    • Posted nine-man Cardinals lineup projects 22.7% K versus RHP; Misiorowski's TTO3 K rate is 30.9% versus 47.5% TTO1.
    • The exact pitch cap is unreported; a normal-length outing would materially damage the under, and he averaged 6.2 Ks over his last five.
  12. Game total under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 7 pushes at exactly seven runs; under 7.5 wins at exactly seven.
    • ProphetX implied gap is only 6.54 points: under 7 +104 (49.02c) versus under 7.5 −125 (55.56c).
    • Under 7 loses at eight or more runs; the push protection does not improve a genuinely high-scoring game.
  13. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers −1 pushes on an exact one-run win; Brewers −1.5 loses.
    • ProphetX implied gap is only 11.12 points: −136 (57.63c) versus −1.5 +115 (46.51c).
    • Exact one-run wins are split from all one-run games; this comparison does not forecast Milwaukee’s win margin.
  14. Andre Pallante under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 56% true probability versus 48.5% break-even at +106: +7.5 percentage points.
    • Pallante went under 3.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts; his last-3 and last-5 K/9 are 4.50 and 4.67.
    • Pallante's season K/9 is only 6.08, while five of Milwaukee's nine starters are below a 25% individual K rate.
    • His 6.08 season K/9 can still produce four-plus strikeouts when he reaches six innings.
  15. Andre Pallante strikeouts under 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +113 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 56% under versus 46.9% implied at +113, a 9.1-point value margin.
    • Pallante went under 3.5 Ks in 6 of his last 10 starts (60%), meeting the form threshold.
    • His K/9 fell to 4.67 over the last five starts and 4.50 over the last three.
    • The recent sample includes 4+ Ks in four of 10 starts, including an 8-K spike.
  16. Andre Pallante outs recorded over 15.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100: clears the 70-point fire bar.
    • Season workload averages 16.82 outs per start versus a 15.5 line, an 8.5% projection edge.
    • Pallante cleared 15.5 outs in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%) and 18 of 28 this season (64.3%).
    • L5 hit rate is only 2 of 5 (40%), with no three-game over streak.
  17. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • posted top-three xwOBA is .358 for MIL and .325 for STL versus RHP.
    • Misiorowski's 2026 first-inning profile: .129 BA allowed, 50% K rate, 4 HR in 110 PA.
    • American Family Field is near neutral: 98 run factor, roof open, 67°F and 5-mph wind.
    • Pallante's first-inning 2026 sample includes 5 HR in 125 PA, creating real Brewers power risk.
  18. Milwaukee Brewers F5 to win (first 5 innings)High conviction
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Rung match confirmed: Kalshi F5 moneyline matches live F5 moneyline reference; BetOnline −225, FanDuel −230; no Pinnacle F5 ML.
    • Misiorowski leads L5 WHIP 1.07 to Pallante 1.37, xwOBA allowed .223 to .309, and ERA 2.96 to 4.33.
    • Most likely loss: Pallante's contact profile keeps Milwaukee scoreless while St. Louis cashes early against Misiorowski.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Brewers?

The Brewers won 6-4 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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