App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalT-Mobile Park
Angels62-99
3-7
Mariners75-86
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAA0000010203
SEA01200301-7

Top model pick, graded

Won

Seattle Mariners over 3.5 runs scored 53¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: Seattle's posted lineup faces LHP Kikuchi; the team split is .3089 xwOBA with a .2386 K rate versus lefties.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-13 on this game · −15% return

  1. Seattle Mariners to win5 models agreeHigh conviction
    +60%Won

    Taken at −166 on DraftKings

    5 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Parity Desk +3
    Why 5 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent fair probability: Seattle 65%; fair line approximately −186.
    • Logan Gilbert: 3.81 season ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.74 K/9, and 0.28 xwOBA allowed.
    • Seattle's bullpen has worked 12.33 innings and 205 pitches over three days; Andrés Muñoz is on the IL.
    Parity Desk
    • Full tier: starters confirmed; Gilbert 25 GS, Kikuchi 33 GS, saber-complete; nine-player lineups posted for both teams.
    • Ledger: Seattle 0.00 runs; Los Angeles −0.50 runs from .3025 xWoba versus RHP below .310; bullpen fatigue adds 0.00.
    • Seattle's model edge is concentrated in the starting-pitcher differential; Gilbert's command or workload could regress.
    Selective Pressure
    • Gilbert is confirmed; current slate xWObA-against is .297 versus Kikuchi's .343, with xERA 3.70 versus 5.09.
    • Seattle's home moneyline is 60c on Polymarket US; my matchup estimate is approximately 64%.
    • The model edge over the sharp reference is modest, so normal baseball variance can dominate.
    Deep Book
      • ProphetX moneyline flow weakened from 0.61 to 0.60 during the morning; the current size may be stale or replenished at a lower price.
    • Game total under 7 runs2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −121 on DraftKings

      2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Deep Book
      Why 2 models like it
      Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 6.4; fair total line 6.5; Under 7 win probability 55.2%; push probability 14% (official inputs locked 1:40 PM CDT; release 1:41 PM CDT; first pitch 2:10 PM CDT).
      • Seattle vs LHP posted .3089 xwOBA; Los Angeles vs RHP posted .3025 xwOBA, with both offenses below average in the handedness matchup.
      • Kikuchi's 5.09 xERA and .343 xwOBA allowed can produce a Seattle multi-run inning by themselves.
      Deep Book
      • Pinnacle shows 7 runs with under −118; the reference total agrees with the venue direction.
      • Model corroboration: Gilbert 3.81 ERA and .297 xwOBA allowed; T-Mobile Park run factor is 88; umpire over-9 rate is 30%.
      • The 5.73x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold; this is half-size, not a recommended play.
    • First-five total under 2.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liquid anchors imply ~65.5% Seattle win probability and a low full-game scoring center near 6.5, 7 runs.
      • 2026 MLB empirical shape: 2,415 games averaged 8.97 runs, but the venue’s 6.5 anchor is distinctly below that baseline.
      • Live score is 0-0 through 1.5 innings, leaving only 3.5 innings for the F5 to reach three runs.
      • One crooked inning can produce three or more runs quickly; this is a live, high-variance short-window market.
    • Seattle Mariners over 3.5 runs scored
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Seattle's posted lineup faces LHP Kikuchi; the team split is .3089 xwOBA with a .2386 K rate versus lefties.
      • The posted top five include five hitters with xwOBA from .3101 to .3595, while Kikuchi has a 4.88 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and .343 xwOBA allowed.
      • T-Mobile Park's run factor is 88, with 57°F conditions and a 10-mph wind in from left field.
    • Logan Gilbert under 7.5 strikeoutsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −125 on BetMGM

      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 27.2% strikeout rate across the posted nine vs RHP; Gilbert's 26.7% season baseline projects 5.8 Ks.
      • Recent five-start workload averaged 5.33 innings and 92.6 pitches, supporting roughly 21.6 expected batters faced.
      • Poisson-binomial projection gives the under about 77%; BetMGM offers −125.
      • Gilbert has 11-K upside; another dominant outing can clear 7.5 despite the central projection.
    • Denzer Guzman under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
      +25%Won

      Taken at −406 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9 of his last 10 games finished with zero RBI (90% hit rate).
      • Vs. right-handed pitching: .2571 xwOBA versus a .3167 league average, 18.8% lower.
      • Confirmed fifth in the Angels lineup; projected starter Logan Gilbert throws right-handed.
      • He produced 4 RBI in one of the last 10 games, showing the tail risk of lineup context.
    Show all 20 picks
    1. Yusei Kikuchi over 4.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      K’sUp 9% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model gives under 4.5 about 49% versus Kalshi NO executable price of 43¢.
      • The current Angels sample has only six starts, so the recency blend remains noisy despite 140 recent PA.
    2. Yusei Kikuchi 6+ strikeouts: No
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: 4.8 Ks; model fair probability for NO 6+ is 68% (fair price −213).
      • Kikuchi's 2026 TTO3 K rate is 9.3%, down about 19 percentage points from TTO1's 28.3%.
      • Kalshi NO costs 60¢ versus 42¢ for YES; equivalent sportsbook under 5.5 is −144 DraftKings and −160 BetMGM.
      • Kikuchi has a verified recent leash: 88, 99, 88 and 89 pitches in his last four starts.
    3. Game total under 6.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +104 on FanDuel

      Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 6.20 total runs from 8.13 baseline offense, 0.88 park-runs factor, cold 57°F, and 10-mph wind in.
      • T-Mobile Park suppresses runs: 2026 park factor 88; HR factors are 96 for right-handed and 115 for left-handed batters.
      • Logan Gilbert carries 3.70 xERA and 1.10 WHIP; both starters clear the 80-pitch rolling workload gate.
      • Yusei Kikuchi's 1.55 WHIP and 4.88 ERA create substantial traffic risk.
    4. Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −144 on DraftKings

      Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9.7% estimated SwStr%: 48.5% swing rate and 80% contact rate do not support an aggressive over.
      • Seattle strikes out 23.9% versus left-handed pitching, below the 25% prime-over threshold.
      • Kikuchi has averaged 4.6 strikeouts across his last five starts, staying under 5.5 in three.
      • Kikuchi's 2026 season K/9 is 8.62, so five-plus innings can still reach six strikeouts.
    5. Game total under 7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    6. Seattle Mariners −1
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Seattle −1 pushes on a one-run Seattle win; adjacent Seattle −1.5 loses on that same outcome.
      • ProphetX quotes Seattle −1 +101 (49.75¢) versus Seattle −1.5 +148 (40.32¢).
      • No projection is supplied; the adjacent −1.5 quote may already embed team-specific margin shape.
    7. Yusei Kikuchi under 15.5 outs recorded
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 61.5% of Kikuchi's 2026 starts finished at 15 outs or fewer (8 of 13).
      • His 2026 workload is 4.82 innings and 85.5 pitches per start; last three averaged 4.56 innings.
      • DraftKings −110 implies a 52.4% break-even rate; estimated fair probability is 61.5%, a +9.1-point edge.
      • The 13-start sample is thin, and his latest outing reached 5.33 innings (16 outs).
    8. Logan Gilbert under 8 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 80% under 8 versus a 57¢ Kalshi NO price, a 23-point value margin.
      • Gilbert finished with 7 or fewer strikeouts in 24 of 31 2026 starts (77.4%).
      • He stayed under 8 in 8 of his 10 most recent starts, including 3, 7, 11, 10, 4, 5, 5, 7, 6 and 6 strikeouts.
      • The listed Angels matchup carries a 25.8% projected lineup K rate, which favors Gilbert reaching 8.
    9. Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 pitching strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −140 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PWP 74/100 (Grade B): clears the 70 fire bar with a qualifying edge.
      • Current-team sample: under 5.5 Ks in 7 of Kikuchi's last 10 starts (70%); under in 3 straight.
      • L5 rate is 3 of 5 (60%), while his current Angels stint is 9 of 13 under this line (69%).
      • Seattle's matchup model shows the Angels at a 25.8% K rate, with a −2.58-point clash delta versus Kikuchi's K profile.
    10. Logan Gilbert 8 or more strikeouts: No
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 31 current-season starts: 5.87 IP and 94.26 pitches per start; 8+ Ks occurred 7/31.
      • TTO strikeout rates are 32.7% first, 36.1% second, and 18.3% third time through.
      • Angels strike out 25.8% versus right-handers across 3,865 PA; matchup clash is −0.9 percentage points.
      • The Polymarket US price is 0.58 versus sharp fair no near 0.56, so the exchange is not cheap to the independent reference.
    11. Seattle Mariners first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +57%Won

      Taken at −175 on DraftKings

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Weak Pitcher Fade: Yusei Kikuchi's expected ERA is 5.09 and expected wOBA allowed is .343, versus Logan Gilbert at 3.70 and .297.
      • Kikuchi's recent five-start form deteriorated to a 5.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP; Gilbert's recent ERA was 2.31 with a 1.06 WHIP.
      • Independent cashing estimate 65%; fair price approximately −186 versus DraftKings −175.
      • Angels still face a Seattle right-hander with a .305 team xwOBA and 22.2% strikeout rate versus righties.
    12. First-inning runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted top six: SEA Crawford/Arozarena/Canzone/Raleigh/Rodríguez/Naylor; LAA Neto/Meckler/Grissom/Ballesteros/Guzman/Lowe.
      • SEA vs LHP: .316 xwOBA; LAA vs RHP: .305 xwOBA, providing a lineup-specific baseline rather than generic totals.
      • The reference is DERIVED, not sharp: no Pinnacle RFI quote exists for this exact market.
    13. Randy Arozarena over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at −203 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • His 2026 split versus left-handed pitching is .3077 AVG with 52 hits in 194 plate appearances.
      • Yusei Kikuchi is confirmed as the Angels' starter, and Arozarena is confirmed active and batting second.
      • The recent hit rate is about 13.6 percentage points above the posted price baseline, clearing the 10% line-value gate.
      • Five-game form is a small sample and includes a zero-hit game on September 22.
    14. Game total over 8.5 runs
      +186%Won

      Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

      UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US is open and tradable: over 35.0¢, under 65.5¢, both sides quoted outside the exclusion band.
      • Kikuchi: 4.88 ERA and .343 xwOBA against; Seattle’s bullpen logged 205 pitches over the prior three days.
      • Gilbert’s .297 xwOBA against and 3.81 ERA provide a credible run-suppression counterweight.

    Questions

    Who won Angels vs. Mariners?

    The Mariners won 7-3 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.