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FinalNationals Park
Mets74-87
4-6
Nationals76-85
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYM1300000004
WSH11201010-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Mets F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: DJ Herz: 9.00 L5 ERA, 1.75 L5 WHIP, .4217 xWoba-against; Sean Manaea: 6.18 L5 ERA, 1.26 L5 WHIP.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-13 on this game · +8% return

  1. New York Mets to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    4 modelsweak-pitcher fade ML #1180, Drift +2
    Why 4 models like it
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: DJ Herz has a 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and .422 xwOBA allowed.
    • Mets versus LHP: .318 xwOBA and 22.6% strikeout rate, below the 23% gate.
    • Washington's bullpen is fresher: 10.33 innings and 187 pitches over three days.
    Drift
    • Mets team xFIP 3.72 versus Washington's 4.08; current-season run differential is −30 versus +4.
    • Washington has home field and the fresher bullpen: 10.33 IP and 187 pitches versus New York's 13.33 IP and 236 pitches over three days.
    Selective Pressure
    • Manaea: 4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .335 xwOBA allowed; Herz: 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .4217 xwOBA allowed.
    • Mets' bullpen has 18.33 innings over seven days versus Washington's 28.33, a late-game freshness edge.
    • The warehouse shows the game live in the top of the first with no outs, so this is a time-sensitive in-progress price.
    Fade the Arm
    • DJ Herz shows a 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .4217 xwOBA allowed and 124.4 xFIP-minus in 4.0 innings.
    • Mets versus left-handers: .3175 xwOBA and .2262 strikeout rate; both clear the platoon gate against Herz's left-handedness.
    • The Mets lineup was not posted at the 7:35 AM PDT check; a key-bat absence could materially reduce the platoon edge.
  2. Washington Nationals spread +12 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • At +1, a one-run Mets win is a push; the adjacent Nationals +1.5 instead wins outright.
    • ProphetX self-reference: +1 is −132 (56.9¢) versus +1.5 at −168 (62.69¢), a 5.79-point price gap.
    • Nationals +1.5 wins on a one-run Mets victory while Nationals +1 only refunds, so the contracts do not have identical upside.
    Deep Book
    • Cross-market direction agrees: ProphetX Washington moneyline is +100, while Pinnacle references Washington +1.5 at +202.
    • Personnel gate passed. Sean Manaea and DJ Herz were posted at 9:30 PDT; no game-specific injury signal was returned.
    • LEAN, not recommended: 5.26x is below the 10x size threshold.
  3. Game total over 8.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • My read is approximately 53% over: the teams combined for 8.9 runs per game across their respective last 10.
    • DJ Herz carries a 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and .4217 xwOBA allowed in the current profile.
    • Herz's 9.00 ERA and .4217 xwOBA are based on only 4.0 innings, so the signal is extremely thin.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 9.38 combined season runs per game versus an 8.5 total.
    • Nationals Park carries a 112 run factor and 124 home-run factor.
    • 16 mph wind blowing in from left field may suppress carry and scoring.
  4. Washington Nationals to win2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDeep Book, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    Deep Book
    • Cross-market flow leans Washington: Nationals −1.5 carries $3,741 at +210; game under 8.5 carries $3,184 at −112.
    • Most likely loss: Manaea's 4.85 ERA and .335 xwOBA allowed profile beats Herz's 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.
    Undertow
      • Manaea’s listed 4.85 ERA is materially better than Herz’s 9.0, favoring the Mets on starting pitching.
    • New York Mets F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)High conviction
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • DJ Herz: 9.00 L5 ERA, 1.75 L5 WHIP, .4217 xWoba-against; Sean Manaea: 6.18 L5 ERA, 1.26 L5 WHIP.
      • F5 run inputs align: Mets 2.44 runs and Nationals allow 2.56; Nationals 2.87 runs and Mets allow 2.63.
      • Top-three lineup quality is live on both sides: James Wood .404 xWoba, Juan Soto .411, Andrés Chaparro .336.
      • Herz has only one 2026 start and a four-inning L5 log; an effective adjustment or short outing can suppress scoring.
    • Washington Nationals +1.5 first five (first 5 innings)Favorite
      +41%Won

      Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal coherence: liquid anchors imply a near-even game; Mets moneyline is 51.5c and the full-game total is 8.5.
      • 2026 MLB finals show a right-skewed scoring distribution: 8.97 mean runs and 4.52-run standard deviation.
      • The F5 total ladder centers near 4.5 runs, leaving meaningful tie and one-run-margin mass in the first five.
      • Verified starters are DJ Herz and Sean Manaea, but their early-inning performance can create a real asymmetry.
    Show all 24 picks
    1. New York Mets @ Washington Nationals first-five total under 5.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Anchors cohere: near-pick'em moneyline and an 8.5 full-game total imply balanced, moderate scoring.
      • 2026 full-game totals average 9.19, with median 9, p25 6 and p75 12; the fitted 8.5 environment is below average.
      • The 2,410-game 2026 F5 sample averaged 5.12 runs; scaling to 8.5 and applying the normal F5 scoring discount fits under 5.5 near 68, 70%.
      • Unadjusted 2026 F5 history reached under 5.5 only 60.5%; the edge depends on the anchor-based downward adjustment.
    2. No 8th-inning tie
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Moneyline anchor is essentially even; full-game total anchor is 8.5 runs (Over 48¢ / Under 52.5¢).
      • Historical MLB finals sample: 7,219 games, 8.87 average runs, median 8, and 6-to-11 runs covered the interquartile range.
      • The anchor fit implies roughly 0.94 total runs per inning; equal 8th-inning scores should be near half, not the quoted 62¢ tie price.
      • Per-inning markets are thin and the equal-score estimate is an approximation, not an inning-specific model.
    3. New York Mets over 3.5 runs scored
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed left-handed starter DJ Herz has only 4.0 innings, a 9.00 ERA and .4217 xwOBA allowed in the live profile.
      • Confirmed Mets lineup includes Juan Soto (.411 xwOBA), Carson Benge (.341), Francisco Lindor (.327) and Brett Baty (.323).
      • Nationals Park carries a 112 run factor and 124 home-run factor; the matchup-specific starter weakness is stronger than the neutral split.
      • Herz's 4-inning sample is extremely thin; the 9.00 ERA and .4217 xwOBA could regress immediately.
    4. DJ Herz over 1.5 earned runs
      +77%Won

      Taken at −130 on BetMGM

      Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Starter status is posted for Herz at 9:20 AM PDT; BetMGM prices 2+ earned runs at −130.
      • Herz allowed 4 earned runs in 4.0 innings on 63 pitches in his only 2026 start; current ERA is 9.00 and WHIP 1.75.
      • Mets carry a 4.5-run team-total line and Nationals Park has a 112 runs factor, supporting early damage risk.
      • The 2026 sample is only 4.0 innings and 19 batters faced, so every rate is highly unstable.
    5. Total runs over 8.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

      Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US over 8.5 costs 48c; under costs 52.5c; open, tradable, and prices sum to 1.00.
      • Best US book is BetMGM over 8.5 at +100 (50%); 48c is more favorable on the exchange.
      • Partial coverage: DJ Herz has only 1 2026 start; Sean Manaea has 18, but his current saber sample is incomplete.
    6. New York Mets inning 8 winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • F5 draw is 16¢ versus 55, 60¢ draw prices in innings 1, 5, implying a decisive-result gap.
      • Full-game ML is near-even (NYM 50.5%, WSH 50%), yet inning 8 gives WSH 27% versus NYM 25%.
      • Bullpen mechanism favors NYM late: WSH logged 28.33 IP/510 pitches in seven days versus NYM 18.33/314.
      • Washington may reserve its best relievers despite the aggregate workload disadvantage; individual availability is unconfirmed.
    7. New York Mets @ Washington Nationals total runs over 8.5
      +97%Won

      Taken at −103 on DraftKings

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.9 runs; fair total line 9.0; Over 8.5 win probability 55%; push probability 0%; model snapshot 11:35 AM CDT.
      • Washington's left-handed split: .427 SLG and .3168 xwOBA; New York's .367 SLG and .3175 xwOBA are aided by DJ Herz's .4217 xwOBA allowed.
      • Herz has a 9.00 ERA and 5.83 FIP in the current-season sample, while Sean Manaea carries a 4.82 xERA and 6.18 ERA over his last five starts.
      • Herz's 2026 sample is only 4.0 innings, so his 9.00 ERA and .4217 xwOBA allowed are extremely noisy.
    8. DJ Herz 5+ strikeouts: No
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Live rung scan: Kalshi YES/NO buy costs are 4+ 65/35¢, 5+ 46/54¢, 6+ 26/74¢; 5+ NO has the best separation.
      • Sportsbook YES prices were 4+ DK −212/FD −265/MGM −220/Fanatics −250; 5+ −106/−102/+100/−110; 6+ +184/+200/+210/+185. Manaea 6+ NO at Kalshi 52¢ was the runner-up.
      • Herz is listed as probable but the pregame roster labels him bullpen; no official pitch cap was published, so a longer leash can produce five strikeouts.
    9. New York Mets vs Washington Nationals under 7.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 7.5 has 4 qualifiers; Over has 2, so the opposing cohort is weaker.
      • Most likely loss: the Manaea-Herz matchup produces 8 or more combined runs.
    10. New York Mets @ Washington Nationals YRFI
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • DJ Herz: 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .4217 xwOBA allowed and .500 first-inning BA in his current four-inning sample.
      • Confirmed Mets top four versus LHP carry .310, .353, .369 and .349 xwOBA; Nationals top four versus LHP carry .344, .355, .415 and .283.
      • Nationals Park profiles hitter-friendly: 112 run factor and 124 home-run factor; roof open, 65°F, 13-mph left-to-right wind.
      • Herz's current sample is only 4.0 innings; regression toward his prior-season baseline materially lowers the edge.
    11. Game total under 9
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 9 pushes at exactly 9 runs; adjacent under 9.5 wins that outcome.
      • ProphetX quotes under 9 at −150 (60.00 cents) versus under 9.5 at −172 (63.24 cents), only a 3.24-cent gap.
      • The whole-number contract keeps a refund outcome while pricing near the adjacent half-run ladder.
      • League-wide 9-run frequency may not match this matchup's scoring distribution.
    12. DJ Herz over 4.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −104 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6 of Herz's last 10 starts cleared 4.5 strikeouts (60%); empirical model probability is 60%.
      • Herz is the listed Washington starter, active, off the injured list, and the live board prices this exact prop.
      • The 4.5 line is attainable at a modest strikeout threshold despite the plus-money market uncertainty.
      • Only one of the last 10 starts is from 2026; the other nine are from 2024, making the 60% sample stale and thin.
    13. Sean Manaea over 16.5 outs recorded
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Manaea cleared 16.5 outs in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%) and 12 of 18 this season (66.7%).
      • L10 workload projection is 17.7 outs, 7.3% above the 16.5 posted line.
      • Starter is confirmed; Manaea averages 89.8 pitches and 16.94 outs per start this season.
      • L5 hit rate is only 3 of 5 (60%), with a 16.6-out average, barely above the line.
    14. Sean Manaea 6 or more strikeouts: No
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Manaea reached 6+ in 10 of 32 starts; the recent seven-start sample is 3 of 7, not enough to erase the lower full-season tail.
      • Implied innings distribution from 32 starts: <4 IP 31.3%, 4-<5 15.6%, 5-<6 25%, 6-<7 21.9%, 7+ 6.3%.
      • Manaea's last start was 6.0 IP with 9 strikeouts; his recent seven-start average is 5.71 IP and 5.0 strikeouts.
    15. New York Mets first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • DJ Herz has a 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and .4217 xwOBA allowed in his verified 4.0 innings.
      • Mets' confirmed lineup includes Lindor, Soto, Bichette, Benge and Semien against the left-handed Herz.
      • Mets vs lefties carry a .3175 xwOBA; the F5 structure isolates the largest edge before late-game variance.
      • Herz's expected-performance sample is only 4.0 innings, so the .4217 xwOBA allowed may regress sharply.
    16. New York Mets run line −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • DJ Herz has a 9.00 ERA, .4217 xwOBA allowed, 3.64 xFIP and only four 2026 innings; his fourth-time-through-order sample produced .7175 xwOBA allowed.
      • Confirmed Mets lineup versus Herz's left-handedness: .3175 team xwOBA and .2262 K rate versus lefties clear the platoon gate.
      • Most likely loss: Herz survives five innings with ordinary contact, leaving Washington's rested bullpen to keep the game within one run.
    17. First-inning runs
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted 9:30am top threes are confirmed: Mets Lindor/Soto/Bichette carry .310/.353/.369 xwOBA versus LHP; Nationals Wood/Chaparro/House carry .344/.355/.415.
      • Nationals Park is a verified scoring environment: 112 runs park factor and 124 HR park factor, with 13-mph wind left-to-right.
      • DJ Herz has only 1 first-inning game and 7 PA in the first-inning table; that tiny sample makes the Mets-side estimate wide.
    18. Sean Manaea over 5.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −108 on FanDuel

      Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerDown 67% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Manaea's season K/9 is 8.77, with 10.47 K/9 over his last three starts; the lineup-based Poisson-binomial was valid and anchored at the sharp 5.5 line.
      • Manaea has only 2 overs in his last 5 starts, with 9, 6, 4, 2 and 3 strikeouts.

    Questions

    Who won Mets vs. Nationals?

    The Nationals won 6-4 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.

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