Nationals vs. Cardinals: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 8:25 PM PST

FinalBusch Stadium

Nationals73-82

3-5

Cardinals75-80

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	T
WSH	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
STL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	-	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

St. Louis Cardinals F5 winner (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: STL venue quote is 50.0¢ yes / 51.0¢ no; devigged 49.5%, gap +4.5 points; prices sum 1.01, OPEN and tradable.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 11-5 on this game · +26% return

St. Louis Cardinals F5 winner (first 5 innings)
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- STL venue quote is 50.0¢ yes / 51.0¢ no; devigged 49.5%, gap +4.5 points; prices sum 1.01, OPEN and tradable.
- Gone-by-six mirror: Jake Irvin’s L5 WHIP is 1.52 over 25.67 innings (5.13 per start), favoring St. Louis at half weight.
- Top-three matchup favors St. Louis: team xwOBA versus RHP is .3314 versus Washington’s .2967; Quinn Mathews is posted.
- Quinn Mathews has no warehouse L5 row; the 54% estimate is partial-coverage and capped, not a full-tier read.
Game first-five total under 5.5 (first 5 innings)
+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Liquid anchors fit a moderate STL edge (~54, 55%) and an 8.5, 8.9 total environment.
- 2025 MLB finals calibration is right-skewed: mean 8.89, median 8.0, with 51.2% of games finishing at 9+ runs.
- Starter-adjusted first-five scoring should be below a flat half-game split; the fitted under-5.5 probability is approximately 65%.
- An early walk or home run can break the first-five under quickly.
St. Louis Cardinals over 5.5 team runs
−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Internal-coherence anchors: Polymarket US prices St. Louis to win at 57.5c and the full-game over 9.5 at 44.5c.
- The 2025 MLB empirical total distribution was right-skewed: 8.89 mean, 8 median, 12 at the 75th percentile.
- Splitting the 9.5-run anchor toward the 57.5% home favorite centers St. Louis near five runs; the 32c over price is below that fitted tail.
- This is venue self-reference: the fitted distribution uses Polymarket US anchors, not an independent projection.
9th-inning draw
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Empirical linescore: 9th innings tied 67.1% across 2,492 observed innings; average 9th-inning scoring was only 0.69 runs.
- The live 9th-inning draw contract costs 62¢, about 5.1 percentage points below the fitted 67.1% tie rate.
- Pinnacle's −124 St. Louis moneyline and 8.5 total independently support the same anchor environment; this remains an internal-coherence play.
- The 2,492-inning historical sample is league-wide, not matchup-specific; the late-inning run distribution can differ materially.
St. Louis Cardinals over 3.5 team runs
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Jake Irvin is a confirmed RHP with .3597 xwOBA allowed, 5.37 xERA and a 7.36 ERA/1.52 WHIP over his last 25.67 innings.
- Busch Stadium's 92 run factor and 69 HR factor are materially suppressive, directly opposing the over.
St. Louis Cardinals not to win
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
weak-pitcher fade ML #1180Up 10% over 168 picks
Why it likes it
- Cashing likelihood: Jake Irvin shows 5.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 5.37 xERA, and .3597 xwOBA allowed; every vulnerability gate clears.
- Nine Cardinals starters were posted; listed Cardinals position players on the active IL are not in today's lineup.
- St. Louis used 7.0 bullpen innings and 134 pitches over three days, versus Washington's 5.0 innings and 95 pitches.

Show all 16 picks

Under 8.5 total runs
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket
Vig GapUp 20% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Exact 8.5-run full-game total is matched across venues; movement has not created a line mismatch.
- Most likely loss is 9 or more runs from a crooked inning or bullpen leakage.
St. Louis Cardinals team total over 1.5 runsFavorite
+15%Won
Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 8 of the last 10 listed Cardinals team results cleared 1.5 runs.
- Cardinals vs right-handed pitching: .3314 xwOBA versus .2823 league average, a 17.4% advantage.
- The split is only 16 plate appearances, so the 17.4% advantage is a thin sample.
Washington Nationals 1st-inning winnerLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US
Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Live three-way board: Washington 0.23, St. Louis 0.31, draw 0.51; every outcome is quoted.
- F5 Washington winner is 0.37 and full-game Washington moneyline is 0.46, making 0.23 an out-of-step early share.
- F5 over 4.5 is 0.55 and full-game over 8.5 is 0.53, opposing a draw-dominated opening frame.
- The F1 offense split is extreme and likely thin; starter-specific first-inning metrics are null.
Game total under 8.5 runs
+100%Won
Taken at +100 on DraftKings
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.2 projected total runs; fair total line 8.2; Under 8.5 win probability 56.4%; push probability 0%; 12:45 PM CDT release.
- Busch Stadium run park factor is 92, with only a 3-mph right-to-left wind and an open roof.
- Quinn Mathews is the confirmed left-handed starter; current public reporting lists a 3.62 ERA, while Washington's projected lineup has a .322 xwOBA versus left-handers.
- Jake Irvin's 2025 profile shows a 5.63 FIP and .360 xwOBA allowed, creating real Washington blow-up risk.
Quinn Mathews over 5.5 strikeouts
−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- 12.2% SwStr% and 22.2% K% across 37.1 innings establish a strong miss baseline.
- Washington carries a 25% strikeout rate versus left-handers in today's matchup data.
- Mathews recorded 26 strikeouts in his last five starts, including 8 and 7.
- The last-five average is 5.2 Ks, with the over clearing in only 2 of those 5 starts.
Game total over 8.5 runs
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
Jordan Walker under 0.5 hits
+159%Won
Taken at +159 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Model under probability: 60%; DraftKings +159 implies 38.6%, a 21.4-point margin.
- Walker is confirmed batting fourth and listed active, satisfying the participation gate.
- His current-season snapshot is 0-for-6 with .1993 xwOBA.
- The 10-appearance sample is thin, and most older warehouse rows lack game dates.
Alec Burleson under 1.5 total bases
+74%Won
Taken at −136 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Model under probability: 90%; DraftKings −136 implies 57.6%, a 32.4-point margin.
- Burleson is confirmed batting third and listed active, removing the zero-appearance risk.
- DraftKings under price moved from −128 to −136 in the selection's direction.
- The 10-appearance sample is thin, and most older warehouse rows lack game dates.
St. Louis Cardinals to win
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Jake Irvin's 2026 profile: 5.37 xERA, .352 xwOBA allowed, 4.82 xFIP and 5.63 FIP.
- Cardinals' current vs-RHP split is only 16 PA; the broader game-feature sample is weaker at .2958 xwOBA, so the platoon signal is thin.
First-inning runs: No
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- estimate roughly 44% for any first-inning run, below Kalshi’s 51.5% YES midpoint.
- Posted top threes are confirmed: Wood, Chaparro, House vs LHP Mathews; Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson vs RHP Irvin.
- Busch Stadium is a run-suppressing park: park_factor_runs 92 and park_factor_hr 69; weather is mild with only 3 mph wind.
- Irvin’s first-inning history is a genuine YES path: 20 walks and 8 homers in 161 first-inning PA in 2025.