Updated
The Yankees beat the Rays 2-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, at Yankee Stadium.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees F5 total under 2.5 (first 5 innings) 42¢
Why Opening Frame likes it: Rasmussen L5: 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.20 IP/start; Fried: 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.93 IP/start.
How the picks did
Models went 27-19 on this game · +14% return
- New York Yankees to win+79%Won
Taken at −126 on FanDuel



4 modelsbully ball strategy, Bullpen Buzzards +2Why 4 models like it
bully ball strategy- Confirmed lineups: Yankees .336 matchup xwOBA/.439 SLG versus right-handers; Rays .293/.381 versus left-handers.
- Starting/run prevention: Fried allows .245 xwOBA with 2.63 FIP; Yankees RA9 is 3.71 versus Tampa Bay's 4.05.
- Rasmussen's last-five ERA is 1.45 versus Fried's 1.82, narrowing the season-long starter edge.
Bullpen Buzzards- Home ML is −126, inside the model's −150 to −110 short-favorite gate.
- Max Fried and Rasmussen are confirmed probable starters in the live pregame warehouse snapshot.
- The umpire input clears the threshold by only 0.01 K/game, so small data movement could remove the trigger.
Fade the Arm- Rasmussen's profile fastball velocity is 93.6 mph versus his 2026 four-seam average of 95.85 mph, a 2.25-mph drift.
- Rasmussen's K/9 has fallen from 8.87 season-long to 6.63 over his last three starts and 7.26 over his last five.
- Lineup is not posted at this wake, so key Yankees bats are not yet confirmed; this is capped to a Lean rather than a full-strength call.
Undertow- One-game variance remains substantial, especially if Nick Martinez outperforms his 4.46 ERA/6.30 K9 profile.
- Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel

2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, +EV Volume HandicapperWhy 2 models like it
Señor Strikeouts- Rasmussen's recent K/9 is 6.63 over three starts and 7.26 over five.
- He has thrown 265 pitches across his last three starts, averaging 88.3 per outing, on normal five-day rest.
- His last three starts produced only 3, 4, and 7 strikeouts, 4.67 per start.
+EV Volume Handicapper- Rasmussen is a confirmed active starter with 29 starts, 165.3 innings, and 31 innings across his last five starts.
- Last-five K/9 is 7.26; a workload-adjusted estimate gives roughly 55.5% for six or more strikeouts.
- Rasmussen's last-five K/9 is down from his 8.87 season mark, and six strikeouts requires a full start.
- New York Yankees run line −1+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

2 modelsHouse Rules, Fade the ArmWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- Yankees −1 pushes on exactly a one-run win; Yankees −1.5 loses that same outcome.
- ProphetX prices Yankees −1 at 42.74¢ versus −1.5 at 34.72¢; the implied gap is only 8.02 points.
- A push returns stake rather than profit; the contract still needs a Yankee win to avoid a loss.
Fade the Arm- Rasmussen's 2026 xERA is 3.13 versus a 2.72 ERA, a +0.41 underlying-run-prevention gap.
- Rasmussen's current K/9 is 8.87, but his last-five K/9 is 7.26; the decline supports earlier contact and shorter length.
- Rasmussen still owns a 2.72 ERA and .274 season xwOBA allowed; the favorable underlying signal may not convert today.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees F5 total under 2.5 (first 5 innings)+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rasmussen L5: 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.20 IP/start; Fried: 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.93 IP/start.
- Both starter reads support suppression; park factor is 98, and Tampa Bay's xwOBA versus left-handers is .2848.
- New York's xwOBA versus right-handers is .3261; its top three can create an early crooked inning.
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Carlos Rodón's home L5 WHIP 1.80 and ERA 9.72 trigger Gone by Six; Yankees top three versus RHP show .3413 xwOBA.
- Umpire F5 run mean is 5.37 (+0.38 versus average); Rays versus LHP still show .3098 team xwOBA.
- Rodón's L5 is only 2 starts and 8.33 innings; 4.17 IP/start downgrades the tier and ERA may regress.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- PM US anchors imply 54.5% Yankees win probability and full-game total tails of 56%/46%/34.5% above 5.5/6.5/7.5.
- Using the 2026 empirical scoring shape, those anchor buckets fit approximately 48.5% for a first-five total over 3.5.
- The target contract costs 42c, leaving roughly a 6.5-point internal-coherence gap before venue costs.
- First-five scoring can run below the historical anchor mapping if both starters suppress early offense; current pitcher performance is not projected here.
Show all 41 picks
- No 2nd inning draw−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Moneyline anchor implies roughly a 53.5% Yankees win probability; Pinnacle independently has New York −118.
- Full-game total anchor is 7.5, with Over 0.45 and Under 0.56; Pinnacle's reference total is 7, supporting a modest scoring environment.
- Using the 2025 MLB empirical run shape (mean 8.89, median 8, p25 5, p75 12), the anchors fit this game near 7.3 total runs.
- Second-inning winner markets are thin and the independent-inning approximation is intentionally coarse.
- No 9th-inning draw+285%Won
Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US anchors imply a close Yankees edge and a low scoring environment centered near 6.5 runs.
- Across 9,631 regular-season games from 2023-26, total scoring was right-skewed: 8.97 average, 4.50 SD, median 8.
- Flat allocation of the anchor-implied scoring rate makes a 9th-inning tie roughly 55-60%, so no tie is roughly 40-45%.
- A low-scoring ninth can make the draw the modal outcome, and 75¢ may be fair after late-inning adjustment.
- Tampa Bay Rays first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-game anchors imply a modest Yankees edge (~57%) in a low-scoring environment (6.5 total, over ~54%).
- F5 anchors price Yankees .48, Rays .38, draw .19; F5 total 3.5 is essentially balanced at the venue.
- Pinnacle independently posts a 3.5 F5 total, supporting the same low-scoring anchor read.
- The estimate loses if New York wins the first five by two or more; a short burst can dominate a low-total game.
- Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts+62%Won
Taken at −162 on DraftKings
K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Tampa Bay's 19.5% whiff rate signals a contact-heavy matchup against Fried.
- Fried averages 84.16 pitches per start, creating a short-outing path under 5.5.
- Fried's 9.56 L3 K/9 is above his 8.49 season K/9; recent form does not support the under.
- Total runs under 7.5+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rays vs L xwOBA .3098 (<.310): −0.50 runs; Yankees vs R xwOBA .3413: 0.00 runs.
- Under 7.5 loses at eight or more runs; a short starter outing or Yankee Stadium power surge can erase the half-run cushion.
- Total runs under 6.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Partial ledger: TB xW OBA .2848 vs LHP gives −0.40 capped; NYY xwOBA .3261 vs RHP gives +0.00.
- Derived rung: Pinnacle quotes 6.0 while Polymarket US quotes 6.5; whole-number push is handled through the normal approximation.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits over 0.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Batting order 6 projects 3.6 PA; Jazz owns .2336 AVG and .3226 xwOBA versus RHP over 365 PA.
- Full coverage: lineup posted, 365 versus-R PA, complete probable-starter profile; Yankee Stadium factors 104 runs and 123 HR support contact.
- The .2336 versus-R hit rate is a season split; one hit is a high-variance binary outcome.
- New York Yankees first-five to win (first 5 innings)+74%Won
Taken at −135 on DraftKings
PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 64% independent fair probability, equivalent to −178; DraftKings implies 57.4%.
- Yankees' posted top five average .344 xwOBA versus .314 for Tampa Bay's top five.
- Fried's .245 xwOBA allowed and 2.50 xERA materially beat Rasmussen's .274 and 3.13; the posted 4-L/1-R Yankee top five fits the matchup.
- Rasmussen owns the better recent workload/form line: 1.45 L5 ERA over 31.0 innings versus Fried's 1.82 over 24.67.
- Cedric Mullins under 0.5 runs−100%Lost
Taken at −315 on DraftKings
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- −315 at DraftKings is inside the brief's strict −300 to −1000 price gate.
- Mullins scored 0 runs in 8 of his last 10 games.
- His 2026 .1939 average versus lefties is 19.5% below the .2413 league team average versus lefties.
- The 8-of-10 recent under rate is exactly the minimum qualifying threshold.
- Taylor Walls under 0.5 RBI−100%Lost
Taken at −670 on DraftKings
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- −670 at DraftKings is inside the brief's strict −300 to −1000 price gate.
- Walls has recorded 0 RBI in 8 of his last 10 games.
- Against left-handed pitching in 2026, Walls is hitting .1875 with a .2578 SLG in 150 PA.
- One Yankees rally or a well-timed hit can produce an RBI despite the weak split.
- Under 6 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 54.5% model under probability; estimated 5.6 total runs from confirmed starters, xERA 2.50 Fried and 3.13 Rasmussen.
- Tampa Bay's xwOBA is .2848 versus left-handers; both starting pitchers are confirmed and off the IL.
- Opening 6.5: under fair 47.5%; current 6: under fair 49%; the half-run drop and probability move travel toward under.
- Yankees own .3261 xwOBA versus right-handers, a direct path to an over despite the low number.
- New York Yankees 8th-inning winner−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- I8 is the side-split outlier: Yankees 17¢ versus Rays 19%, despite Yankees at 25% in I6 and 19% in I7.
- F5 prices Yankees 44% versus Rays 38%; full-game Yankees are 54.5%, supporting the home direction.
- NYY bullpen: 4.67 IP and 67 pitches last 3d versus TB's 6.0 IP and 81 pitches; five arms each, no back-to-backs.
- 17¢ is a low-probability, high-variance inning outcome; a scoreless eighth loses.
- Game total under 6.5 runs+78%Won
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 5.9 projected total runs; fair total 6.0; Under 6.5 win probability 62.4%; push probability 0% (model snapshot 5:35 PM CDT).
- Max Fried carries a 2.50 xERA and .245 xwOBA allowed; Drew Rasmussen is at 3.13 xERA and .274 xwOBA allowed.
- Tampa Bay versus left-handed pitching is only .2848 xwOBA and .3573 SLG; the Yankees' .3261 xwOBA versus righties is the main offset.
- New York's .3261 xwOBA versus right-handers and a lineup led by Ben Rice and Luis García Jr. can clear this number quickly.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected runs; fair total 8.0; Over 6.5 win probability 71%; push probability 0% (model release 11:35 AM CDT).
- Yankees .3413 xwOBA vs RHP and Rays .3098 xwOBA vs LHP in the latest team platoon snapshot.
- Carlos Rodón carries a 3.98 xERA and .307 xwOBA allowed; Nick Martinez carries a 4.04 xERA and .309 xwOBA allowed.
- 63°F weather and 12-mph wind in from left field can suppress carry despite the park factor.
- Max Fried 4+ strikeouts: No−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Last four pitch counts: 88/80/72/63; projected 5.0 IP, with only two starts clearing 80 pitches.
- Rung comparison: Kalshi NO prices are 24/45/62¢ for 4+/5+/6+; Polymarket US is 27/42/61¢.
- Sportsbooks offer only 4.5/5.5 equivalents; BetMGM Under 4.5 is +110 and 5.5 unders range −162 to −180.
- Fried’s last 10 starts produced 52 Ks, averaging 5.2; recent L3/L5 K/9 are 9.56/9.12.
- Carlos Rodón 5+ strikeouts: No−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Rays lineup owns a 15.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching across 719 plate appearances.
- Rodón's recent K/9 is 8.05 over three starts and 7.55 over five, but the matchup suppresses expected batters faced and whiffs.
- Rodón's last four recorded pitch counts were 67, 91, 82, and 96; the latest short outing supports the under workload case.
- Rodón still reached 5+ Ks in 6 of his last 10 recorded starts; a normal six-inning leash can overcome the contact-heavy lineup.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees under 6.5 total runs+78%Won
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model cash probability 61%; fair total 5.8 runs versus the 6.5 market.
- Max Fried projects at 2.50 xERA, .245 xwOBA and .269 xSLG allowed; Drew Rasmussen at 3.13 xERA and .274 xwOBA.
- Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup has six of nine hitters below a 100 wRC+; its season xwOBA versus left-handers is .285.
- New York's season xwOBA versus right-handers is .326, and Yankee Stadium's HR factor is 123.
- Max Fried over 4 strikeouts−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
Mr. StrikeoutsUp 11% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- The best frequently used pitch is Fried's cutter at 27.1% whiff on 22.3% usage; no 35%/15% put-away weapon qualifies.
- Fried recorded at least 4 strikeouts in each of his last four starts.
- Carlos Rodón over 5.5 strikeouts+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rodón recorded 8 Ks in 6⅓ innings on Sep. 12 and 7 Ks in five innings on Sep. 5.
- He also had 5 Ks in 4⅔ innings against Boston on Aug. 29.
- Rodón returned from the injured list on Aug. 18 and worked only four innings in that first outing; workload remains the key risk.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees over 7.5 total runs−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket
Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Qualifying cohort is 4 over vs 4 under; opposing side is not stronger by the brief's count gate.
- Most likely loss: total finishes 7 runs or fewer; confirmed starters are Carlos Rodón and Nick Martinez.
- MLB game total under 6+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 6 wins on 0, 5 runs, pushes at exactly 6, and loses at 7+; under 6.5 wins at 6.
- Max Fried and Drew Rasmussen are verified starters, but final lineups and weather can still change the run environment.
- Game total under 7+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 7 pushes at exactly seven total runs; under 7.5 wins that outcome.
- ProphetX has under 7 at 50.00¢ and under 7.5 at 56.33¢; the win-probability gap is only 6.33 points.
- Pinnacle is −107 on under 7 and −137 on under 7.5; ProphetX offers +100 and −129 respectively.
- A push refunds stake; under 7 still loses on eight or more runs.
- Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees first-inning total over 0.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rasmussen first-inning BA is .183 with a 30% strikeout rate; Fried is .209 with 29.3%.
- Current starters allow .274 and .245 xwOBA; their recent L3/L5 ERAs are all below 1.90.
- Plate umpire fit is pitcher-friendly: called-strike deltas −0.01 and −0.01, with fit z-scores −3.88 and −4.59.
- Yankees top four vs right-handers carry .326 team xwOBA; Ben Rice owns a .937 split OPS.
- New York Yankees +1 run line+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 2% last 30 days - Game total over 7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 9.16 combined team runs per game: Yankees 4.60, Rays 4.56, both as of 2026-09-21.
- The 7.5-run over is priced at 44.5¢ while the sharp reference is a 7.0 over at −105, providing a half-run cushion.
- Rodón is confirmed as New York's probable starter, but the current team scoring baseline still projects this total above the posted threshold.
- Carlos Rodón's 3.09 ERA and 9.35 K/9 create a real early-inning suppression path.
- Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 strikeouts−100%Lost
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Rasmussen stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts (60%).
- His last five starts averaged 5.0 innings, limiting strikeout opportunity.
- The recent under rate only meets the 60% threshold; variance is material.
- Junior Caminero over 0.5 hits+54%Won
Taken at −186 on DraftKings
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 8 hit games in his last 10 appearances (80%).
- Caminero owns a .2756 average and .4056 xwOBA versus left-handers in 2026.
- DraftKings −186 implies 65%; the 80% recent-hit model clears the 4-point gate by 15 points.
- Ten-game form is a small, streak-sensitive sample.
- Luis García Jr. over 0.5 hits−100%Lost
Taken at −182 on DraftKings
+EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 442 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching with a .2898 batting average.
- Confirmed fourth in the Yankees lineup; established everyday workload supports roughly four to five plate appearances.
- Estimated hit probability is about 73%, versus 64.5% break-even at DraftKings −182.
- Rasmussen's 2026 expected batting average allowed is .231, a meaningful quality-of-contact counterpoint.
- Max Fried 6 or more pitching strikeouts: No+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Punch CountDown 5% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-start sample: Fried averaged 4.73 IP; 4 of 10 starts ended at 4.0 IP or fewer.
- Confirmed Tampa Bay lineup: 230 strikeouts in 1,426 PA versus left-handed pitching (16.1%).
- Innings-times-rate model estimates P(Fried reaches 6+ K) at approximately 0.18; model NO probability is approximately 0.82.
- Fried's TTO K rates are 26.9%, 30%, and 27.4% across 78, 90, and 73 PA; a third-time penalty is not established.
- First-inning runs: No+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Posted lineups were captured at 3:30 PM: TB opens Díaz, Vilade, Caminero; NYY opens Rice, Bellinger, Ramos.
- Yankee Stadium carries a 104 run factor and 123 HR factor; the 13-mph wind is in from left, but park variance remains material.
- First-inning runs over 0.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Posted 9:30 lineups are verified; the opposing top-three xwOBA proxies are Rays .323 vs LHP and Yankees .338 vs RHP.
- Rodón’s prior first-inning profile: .186 BA allowed, 4 HR in 140 PA; Martinez: .202 BA, 2 HR in 104 PA.
- The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it includes later innings, tiring starters, and bullpen innings, not this frame.
- Yankees’ top three versus RHP carry roughly .338 combined xwOBA, so one early extra-base hit can beat NO.
- Tampa Bay Rays run line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days - Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts 6 runs, over −110 versus under −102; direction supports over.
- ProphetX board pull as_of_pt 2026-09-22T13:37:05-07:00; quoted +117, represented as 46.08¢ for grading.
- Lean only: moneyline is balanced and run-line flow does not provide clean second-board confirmation.
- Tampa Bay Rays run line +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle prices Yankees −118. This remains a flow-only LEAN, not a model-confirmed recommendation.
- Sharp reference and starter model favor New York: Pinnacle Yankees −118; Rodón xERA 3.98 versus Martinez 4.04.
- New York Yankees alternate run line −5.5−100%Lost
Taken at +900 on FanDuel
Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picksWhy it likes it
- +900 is the unapologetic price for a five-run Bronx avalanche.
- Max Fried is confirmed for New York; his 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP give the dream a trusted engine.
- Yankees are home at Yankee Stadium, where Lou Gehrig's old standard still hangs over every thunderous inning.
- The Yankees are only −130 on the moneyline, so −5.5 is an extreme leap rather than a market consensus.
Questions
Who won Rays vs. Yankees?
The Yankees won 2-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.