Updated

The Yankees beat the Rays 2-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, at Yankee Stadium.

FinalYankee Stadium
Rays95-60
0-2
Yankees89-66
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0000000000
NYY00020000-2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees F5 total under 2.5 (first 5 innings) 42¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Rasmussen L5: 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.20 IP/start; Fried: 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.93 IP/start.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks

How the picks did

Models went 27-19 on this game · +14% return

  1. New York Yankees to win4 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on FanDuel

    4 modelsbully ball strategy, Bullpen Buzzards +2
    Why 4 models like it
    bully ball strategy
    • Confirmed lineups: Yankees .336 matchup xwOBA/.439 SLG versus right-handers; Rays .293/.381 versus left-handers.
    • Starting/run prevention: Fried allows .245 xwOBA with 2.63 FIP; Yankees RA9 is 3.71 versus Tampa Bay's 4.05.
    • Rasmussen's last-five ERA is 1.45 versus Fried's 1.82, narrowing the season-long starter edge.
    Bullpen Buzzards
    • Home ML is −126, inside the model's −150 to −110 short-favorite gate.
    • Max Fried and Rasmussen are confirmed probable starters in the live pregame warehouse snapshot.
    • The umpire input clears the threshold by only 0.01 K/game, so small data movement could remove the trigger.
    Fade the Arm
    • Rasmussen's profile fastball velocity is 93.6 mph versus his 2026 four-seam average of 95.85 mph, a 2.25-mph drift.
    • Rasmussen's K/9 has fallen from 8.87 season-long to 6.63 over his last three starts and 7.26 over his last five.
    • Lineup is not posted at this wake, so key Yankees bats are not yet confirmed; this is capped to a Lean rather than a full-strength call.
    Undertow
      • One-game variance remains substantial, especially if Nick Martinez outperforms his 4.46 ERA/6.30 K9 profile.
    • Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
      +96%Won

      Taken at −104 on FanDuel

      2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, +EV Volume Handicapper
      Why 2 models like it
      Señor Strikeouts
      • Rasmussen's recent K/9 is 6.63 over three starts and 7.26 over five.
      • He has thrown 265 pitches across his last three starts, averaging 88.3 per outing, on normal five-day rest.
      • His last three starts produced only 3, 4, and 7 strikeouts, 4.67 per start.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • Rasmussen is a confirmed active starter with 29 starts, 165.3 innings, and 31 innings across his last five starts.
      • Last-five K/9 is 7.26; a workload-adjusted estimate gives roughly 55.5% for six or more strikeouts.
      • Rasmussen's last-five K/9 is down from his 8.87 season mark, and six strikeouts requires a full start.
    • New York Yankees run line −12 models agree
      +133%Won

      Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsHouse Rules, Fade the Arm
      Why 2 models like it
      House Rules
      • Yankees −1 pushes on exactly a one-run win; Yankees −1.5 loses that same outcome.
      • ProphetX prices Yankees −1 at 42.74¢ versus −1.5 at 34.72¢; the implied gap is only 8.02 points.
      • A push returns stake rather than profit; the contract still needs a Yankee win to avoid a loss.
      Fade the Arm
      • Rasmussen's 2026 xERA is 3.13 versus a 2.72 ERA, a +0.41 underlying-run-prevention gap.
      • Rasmussen's current K/9 is 8.87, but his last-five K/9 is 7.26; the decline supports earlier contact and shorter length.
      • Rasmussen still owns a 2.72 ERA and .274 season xwOBA allowed; the favorable underlying signal may not convert today.
    • Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees F5 total under 2.5 (first 5 innings)
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen L5: 1.45 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.20 IP/start; Fried: 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 4.93 IP/start.
      • Both starter reads support suppression; park factor is 98, and Tampa Bay's xwOBA versus left-handers is .2848.
      • New York's xwOBA versus right-handers is .3261; its top three can create an early crooked inning.
    • Tampa Bay Rays F5 total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Carlos Rodón's home L5 WHIP 1.80 and ERA 9.72 trigger Gone by Six; Yankees top three versus RHP show .3413 xwOBA.
      • Umpire F5 run mean is 5.37 (+0.38 versus average); Rays versus LHP still show .3098 team xwOBA.
      • Rodón's L5 is only 2 starts and 8.33 innings; 4.17 IP/start downgrades the tier and ERA may regress.
    • Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PM US anchors imply 54.5% Yankees win probability and full-game total tails of 56%/46%/34.5% above 5.5/6.5/7.5.
      • Using the 2026 empirical scoring shape, those anchor buckets fit approximately 48.5% for a first-five total over 3.5.
      • The target contract costs 42c, leaving roughly a 6.5-point internal-coherence gap before venue costs.
      • First-five scoring can run below the historical anchor mapping if both starters suppress early offense; current pitcher performance is not projected here.
    Show all 41 picks
    1. No 2nd inning draw
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Moneyline anchor implies roughly a 53.5% Yankees win probability; Pinnacle independently has New York −118.
      • Full-game total anchor is 7.5, with Over 0.45 and Under 0.56; Pinnacle's reference total is 7, supporting a modest scoring environment.
      • Using the 2025 MLB empirical run shape (mean 8.89, median 8, p25 5, p75 12), the anchors fit this game near 7.3 total runs.
      • Second-inning winner markets are thin and the independent-inning approximation is intentionally coarse.
    2. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
      +285%Won

      Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US anchors imply a close Yankees edge and a low scoring environment centered near 6.5 runs.
      • Across 9,631 regular-season games from 2023-26, total scoring was right-skewed: 8.97 average, 4.50 SD, median 8.
      • Flat allocation of the anchor-implied scoring rate makes a 9th-inning tie roughly 55-60%, so no tie is roughly 40-45%.
      • A low-scoring ninth can make the draw the modal outcome, and 75¢ may be fair after late-inning adjustment.
    3. Tampa Bay Rays first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game anchors imply a modest Yankees edge (~57%) in a low-scoring environment (6.5 total, over ~54%).
      • F5 anchors price Yankees .48, Rays .38, draw .19; F5 total 3.5 is essentially balanced at the venue.
      • Pinnacle independently posts a 3.5 F5 total, supporting the same low-scoring anchor read.
      • The estimate loses if New York wins the first five by two or more; a short burst can dominate a low-total game.
    4. Max Fried under 5.5 strikeouts
      +62%Won

      Taken at −162 on DraftKings

      K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tampa Bay's 19.5% whiff rate signals a contact-heavy matchup against Fried.
      • Fried averages 84.16 pitches per start, creating a short-outing path under 5.5.
      • Fried's 9.56 L3 K/9 is above his 8.49 season K/9; recent form does not support the under.
    5. Total runs under 7.5High conviction
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

      Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rays vs L xwOBA .3098 (<.310): −0.50 runs; Yankees vs R xwOBA .3413: 0.00 runs.
      • Under 7.5 loses at eight or more runs; a short starter outing or Yankee Stadium power surge can erase the half-run cushion.
    6. Total runs under 6.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Partial ledger: TB xW OBA .2848 vs LHP gives −0.40 capped; NYY xwOBA .3261 vs RHP gives +0.00.
      • Derived rung: Pinnacle quotes 6.0 while Polymarket US quotes 6.5; whole-number push is handled through the normal approximation.
    7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits over 0.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Batting order 6 projects 3.6 PA; Jazz owns .2336 AVG and .3226 xwOBA versus RHP over 365 PA.
      • Full coverage: lineup posted, 365 versus-R PA, complete probable-starter profile; Yankee Stadium factors 104 runs and 123 HR support contact.
      • The .2336 versus-R hit rate is a season split; one hit is a high-variance binary outcome.
    8. New York Yankees first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +74%Won

      Taken at −135 on DraftKings

      PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 64% independent fair probability, equivalent to −178; DraftKings implies 57.4%.
      • Yankees' posted top five average .344 xwOBA versus .314 for Tampa Bay's top five.
      • Fried's .245 xwOBA allowed and 2.50 xERA materially beat Rasmussen's .274 and 3.13; the posted 4-L/1-R Yankee top five fits the matchup.
      • Rasmussen owns the better recent workload/form line: 1.45 L5 ERA over 31.0 innings versus Fried's 1.82 over 24.67.
    9. Cedric Mullins under 0.5 runsFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −315 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • −315 at DraftKings is inside the brief's strict −300 to −1000 price gate.
      • Mullins scored 0 runs in 8 of his last 10 games.
      • His 2026 .1939 average versus lefties is 19.5% below the .2413 league team average versus lefties.
      • The 8-of-10 recent under rate is exactly the minimum qualifying threshold.
    10. Taylor Walls under 0.5 RBIFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −670 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • −670 at DraftKings is inside the brief's strict −300 to −1000 price gate.
      • Walls has recorded 0 RBI in 8 of his last 10 games.
      • Against left-handed pitching in 2026, Walls is hitting .1875 with a .2578 SLG in 150 PA.
      • One Yankees rally or a well-timed hit can produce an RBI despite the weak split.
    11. Under 6 total
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 54.5% model under probability; estimated 5.6 total runs from confirmed starters, xERA 2.50 Fried and 3.13 Rasmussen.
      • Tampa Bay's xwOBA is .2848 versus left-handers; both starting pitchers are confirmed and off the IL.
      • Opening 6.5: under fair 47.5%; current 6: under fair 49%; the half-run drop and probability move travel toward under.
      • Yankees own .3261 xwOBA versus right-handers, a direct path to an over despite the low number.
    12. New York Yankees 8th-inning winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • I8 is the side-split outlier: Yankees 17¢ versus Rays 19%, despite Yankees at 25% in I6 and 19% in I7.
      • F5 prices Yankees 44% versus Rays 38%; full-game Yankees are 54.5%, supporting the home direction.
      • NYY bullpen: 4.67 IP and 67 pitches last 3d versus TB's 6.0 IP and 81 pitches; five arms each, no back-to-backs.
      • 17¢ is a low-probability, high-variance inning outcome; a scoreless eighth loses.
    13. Game total under 6.5 runs
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 5.9 projected total runs; fair total 6.0; Under 6.5 win probability 62.4%; push probability 0% (model snapshot 5:35 PM CDT).
      • Max Fried carries a 2.50 xERA and .245 xwOBA allowed; Drew Rasmussen is at 3.13 xERA and .274 xwOBA allowed.
      • Tampa Bay versus left-handed pitching is only .2848 xwOBA and .3573 SLG; the Yankees' .3261 xwOBA versus righties is the main offset.
      • New York's .3261 xwOBA versus right-handers and a lineup led by Ben Rice and Luis García Jr. can clear this number quickly.
    14. Game total over 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected runs; fair total 8.0; Over 6.5 win probability 71%; push probability 0% (model release 11:35 AM CDT).
      • Yankees .3413 xwOBA vs RHP and Rays .3098 xwOBA vs LHP in the latest team platoon snapshot.
      • Carlos Rodón carries a 3.98 xERA and .307 xwOBA allowed; Nick Martinez carries a 4.04 xERA and .309 xwOBA allowed.
      • 63°F weather and 12-mph wind in from left field can suppress carry despite the park factor.
    15. Max Fried 4+ strikeouts: NoLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last four pitch counts: 88/80/72/63; projected 5.0 IP, with only two starts clearing 80 pitches.
      • Rung comparison: Kalshi NO prices are 24/45/62¢ for 4+/5+/6+; Polymarket US is 27/42/61¢.
      • Sportsbooks offer only 4.5/5.5 equivalents; BetMGM Under 4.5 is +110 and 5.5 unders range −162 to −180.
      • Fried’s last 10 starts produced 52 Ks, averaging 5.2; recent L3/L5 K/9 are 9.56/9.12.
    16. Carlos Rodón 5+ strikeouts: No
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Rays lineup owns a 15.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching across 719 plate appearances.
      • Rodón's recent K/9 is 8.05 over three starts and 7.55 over five, but the matchup suppresses expected batters faced and whiffs.
      • Rodón's last four recorded pitch counts were 67, 91, 82, and 96; the latest short outing supports the under workload case.
      • Rodón still reached 5+ Ks in 6 of his last 10 recorded starts; a normal six-inning leash can overcome the contact-heavy lineup.
    17. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees under 6.5 total runs
      +78%Won

      Taken at −128 on FanDuel

      cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model cash probability 61%; fair total 5.8 runs versus the 6.5 market.
      • Max Fried projects at 2.50 xERA, .245 xwOBA and .269 xSLG allowed; Drew Rasmussen at 3.13 xERA and .274 xwOBA.
      • Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup has six of nine hitters below a 100 wRC+; its season xwOBA versus left-handers is .285.
      • New York's season xwOBA versus right-handers is .326, and Yankee Stadium's HR factor is 123.
    18. Max Fried over 4 strikeoutsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

      Mr. StrikeoutsUp 11% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • The best frequently used pitch is Fried's cutter at 27.1% whiff on 22.3% usage; no 35%/15% put-away weapon qualifies.
      • Fried recorded at least 4 strikeouts in each of his last four starts.
    19. Carlos Rodón over 5.5 strikeouts
      +144%Won

      Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

      Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rodón recorded 8 Ks in 6⅓ innings on Sep. 12 and 7 Ks in five innings on Sep. 5.
      • He also had 5 Ks in 4⅔ innings against Boston on Aug. 29.
      • Rodón returned from the injured list on Aug. 18 and worked only four innings in that first outing; workload remains the key risk.
    20. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees over 7.5 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Qualifying cohort is 4 over vs 4 under; opposing side is not stronger by the brief's count gate.
      • Most likely loss: total finishes 7 runs or fewer; confirmed starters are Carlos Rodón and Nick Martinez.
    21. MLB game total under 6
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 6 wins on 0, 5 runs, pushes at exactly 6, and loses at 7+; under 6.5 wins at 6.
      • Max Fried and Drew Rasmussen are verified starters, but final lineups and weather can still change the run environment.
    22. Game total under 7
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under 7 pushes at exactly seven total runs; under 7.5 wins that outcome.
      • ProphetX has under 7 at 50.00¢ and under 7.5 at 56.33¢; the win-probability gap is only 6.33 points.
      • Pinnacle is −107 on under 7 and −137 on under 7.5; ProphetX offers +100 and −129 respectively.
      • A push refunds stake; under 7 still loses on eight or more runs.
    23. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees first-inning total over 0.5
      +64%Won

      Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen first-inning BA is .183 with a 30% strikeout rate; Fried is .209 with 29.3%.
      • Current starters allow .274 and .245 xwOBA; their recent L3/L5 ERAs are all below 1.90.
      • Plate umpire fit is pitcher-friendly: called-strike deltas −0.01 and −0.01, with fit z-scores −3.88 and −4.59.
      • Yankees top four vs right-handers carry .326 team xwOBA; Ben Rice owns a .937 split OPS.
    24. New York Yankees +1 run line
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    25. Game total over 7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

      Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9.16 combined team runs per game: Yankees 4.60, Rays 4.56, both as of 2026-09-21.
      • The 7.5-run over is priced at 44.5¢ while the sharp reference is a 7.0 over at −105, providing a half-run cushion.
      • Rodón is confirmed as New York's probable starter, but the current team scoring baseline still projects this total above the posted threshold.
      • Carlos Rodón's 3.09 ERA and 9.35 K/9 create a real early-inning suppression path.
    26. Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −121 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts (60%).
      • His last five starts averaged 5.0 innings, limiting strikeout opportunity.
      • The recent under rate only meets the 60% threshold; variance is material.
    27. Junior Caminero over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at −186 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8 hit games in his last 10 appearances (80%).
      • Caminero owns a .2756 average and .4056 xwOBA versus left-handers in 2026.
      • DraftKings −186 implies 65%; the 80% recent-hit model clears the 4-point gate by 15 points.
      • Ten-game form is a small, streak-sensitive sample.
    28. Luis García Jr. over 0.5 hits
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −182 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 442 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching with a .2898 batting average.
      • Confirmed fourth in the Yankees lineup; established everyday workload supports roughly four to five plate appearances.
      • Estimated hit probability is about 73%, versus 64.5% break-even at DraftKings −182.
      • Rasmussen's 2026 expected batting average allowed is .231, a meaningful quality-of-contact counterpoint.
    29. Max Fried 6 or more pitching strikeouts: No
      +64%Won

      Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 10-start sample: Fried averaged 4.73 IP; 4 of 10 starts ended at 4.0 IP or fewer.
      • Confirmed Tampa Bay lineup: 230 strikeouts in 1,426 PA versus left-handed pitching (16.1%).
      • Innings-times-rate model estimates P(Fried reaches 6+ K) at approximately 0.18; model NO probability is approximately 0.82.
      • Fried's TTO K rates are 26.9%, 30%, and 27.4% across 78, 90, and 73 PA; a third-time penalty is not established.
    30. First-inning runs: No
      +64%Won

      Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted lineups were captured at 3:30 PM: TB opens Díaz, Vilade, Caminero; NYY opens Rice, Bellinger, Ramos.
      • Yankee Stadium carries a 104 run factor and 123 HR factor; the 13-mph wind is in from left, but park variance remains material.
    31. First-inning runs over 0.5
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted 9:30 lineups are verified; the opposing top-three xwOBA proxies are Rays .323 vs LHP and Yankees .338 vs RHP.
      • Rodón’s prior first-inning profile: .186 BA allowed, 4 HR in 140 PA; Martinez: .202 BA, 2 HR in 104 PA.
      • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it includes later innings, tiring starters, and bullpen innings, not this frame.
      • Yankees’ top three versus RHP carry roughly .338 combined xwOBA, so one early extra-base hit can beat NO.
    32. Tampa Bay Rays run line −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    33. Tampa Bay Rays-New York Yankees total over 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle posts 6 runs, over −110 versus under −102; direction supports over.
      • ProphetX board pull as_of_pt 2026-09-22T13:37:05-07:00; quoted +117, represented as 46.08¢ for grading.
      • Lean only: moneyline is balanced and run-line flow does not provide clean second-board confirmation.
    34. Tampa Bay Rays run line +1.5Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle prices Yankees −118. This remains a flow-only LEAN, not a model-confirmed recommendation.
      • Sharp reference and starter model favor New York: Pinnacle Yankees −118; Rodón xERA 3.98 versus Martinez 4.04.
    35. New York Yankees alternate run line −5.5Long shotHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +900 on FanDuel

      Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
      Why it likes it
      • +900 is the unapologetic price for a five-run Bronx avalanche.
      • Max Fried is confirmed for New York; his 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP give the dream a trusted engine.
      • Yankees are home at Yankee Stadium, where Lou Gehrig's old standard still hangs over every thunderous inning.
      • The Yankees are only −130 on the moneyline, so −5.5 is an extreme leap rather than a market consensus.

    Questions

    Who won Rays vs. Yankees?

    The Yankees won 2-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.