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FinalOriole Park at Camden Yards
Blue Jays77-80
2-4
Orioles76-81
Score by period
Team123456789T
TOR0000020002
BAL02002000-4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Toronto Blue Jays spread +2.5 42¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Live Polymarket US anchors imply an Orioles-heavy, roughly 9, 10-run game: Baltimore win 84.5c and over 9.5 at 42c.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-19 on this game · +3% return

  1. Baltimore Orioles to win3 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSelective Pressure, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Bassitt profile: 3.96 ERA overall and 2.51 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Scherzer profile: 5.19 ERA overall and 10.97 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Toronto's right-handed lineup owns the stronger L30 xwOBA split: .3113 versus Baltimore's .2995.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cashing probability: 59%; Polymarket Global Baltimore price is 54.5¢, implying 54.5%, for roughly a 4.5-point probability edge.
    • Max Scherzer's rolling ERA is 5.75 over his last three starts versus 5.19 season ERA; Chris Bassitt is at 3.12 over three.
    • Bassitt's expected layer is better than Scherzer's: 4.95 xERA/.339 xwOBA allowed versus 4.35/.320.
    Fade the Arm
    • Third-time-through xwOBA rises to .3509 from .3301 first time; his L3 K/9 is 4.60 versus 6.69 season.
    • Baltimore’s posted lineup clears the platoon gate against right-handers: .3175 xwOBA; Toronto’s bullpen logged 83 pitches over six innings in three days.
    • Bassitt is not the vulnerable arm: his current xFIP is 4.62 with a 3.12 L3 ERA, limiting Baltimore’s margin.
    Fade the Arm
    • Platoon gate clears: Baltimore versus right-handers owns a .3175 xwOBA; its posted starters were confirmed at 3:00 PM PDT.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate Baltimore lean from Van Eyk's run-prevention profile and Toronto's heavier bullpen workload (9.0 IP, 128 pitches in three days).
    • Van Eyk has only 6.67 MLB innings and zero recorded starts; the xFIP/CSW signal is an extremely thin sample.
  2. Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsK-Zone Fade, MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Bassitt averages 6.68 K/9 this season, while the Kalshi NO contract covers fewer than four strikeouts.
    • His 87.59 average pitches per start is below the brief’s 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Bassitt’s last-three K/9 is 8.83, materially above his season rate.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Confirmed nine-man Toronto lineup posted at 9:00 AM PDT; only one hitter is below 60 PA (Sean Keys, 53).
    • Bassitt faced 26, 24, 26, 27 and 26 batters in his last five starts; expected workload is 25.8 batters.
    • Toronto is a contact-oriented lineup, so the modeled edge is narrow and heavily workload-dependent.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Last-10 empirical model: Bassitt cleared 3.5 strikeouts in 8 of 10 starts (80%).
    • Bassitt is the confirmed listed Baltimore starter and the live roster feed marks him active.
    • Eight-start hit sample remains noisy; one short outing loses the contract.
  3. Total runs under 7.5High conviction
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Under 7.5 costs 0.53; Over 0.48 plus Under 0.53 sums 1.00, open and tradable.
    • Ledger: Toronto xWoba .2984 versus RHP across 3,690 PA, minus 0.50 runs; Baltimore .3175 across 3,860 PA, zero adjustment.
    • Full coverage: starters confirmed and non-IL, Bassitt/Scherzer have 31/17 starts; lineups are 9/9; both platoon samples exceed 300 PA; Tier 1 RECOMMENDED.
    • Toronto's −0.50-run platoon adjustment may overstate current weakness; the ledger is a model assumption, not a direct forecast.
    • Polymarket US Under 7.5 costs 0.51; both sides quote, OPEN/tradable, and sum to 1.00.
    • Toronto versus right-handed pitching has .2984 xwOBA; the −0.50-run ledger is capped at −0.40 Partial.
    • Normal SD 4.3 shifts the baseline 7.45 total to 7.05; model Under is 54.2%, gap 3.7 points.
    • CJ Van Eyk has zero starts and only 6.67 innings; uncertain bulk length makes this Partial coverage.
  4. Toronto Blue Jays to win2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 50.4% Toronto: current run differential is −0.27 runs/game TOR versus −0.19 BAL, offset by a 0.60 xERA starter edge for Scherzer.
    • Starters confirmed at 9:50 AM PDT: Max Scherzer versus Chris Bassitt; latest profile CSW is 55% versus 51.2%.
    • Baltimore has the home field and the better 2026 run differential by 13 runs; that team-efficiency signal can outweigh the starter adjustment.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated Toronto fair probability 55.5% versus 49.5% break-even at +102: +6.0 percentage points.
    • Chris Bassitt: 170.3 IP, 3.96 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 90.9 pitches per start.
    • Toronto's bullpen has thrown 12.0 innings and 193 pitches over the last three days, versus Baltimore's 5.33 innings and 91 pitches.
  5. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 9.2 runs; fair total line 9.0; over 7.5 win probability 70%; push probability 0%; model run 5:05 PM CDT.
    • Gibson: 7.36 ERA, 6.40 FIP, .391 xwOBA allowed; Van Eyk: 6.10 FIP, 7.09 xFIP, .366 xwOBA allowed.
    • Locked lineups average .312 Baltimore xwOBA and .285 Toronto xwOBA across nine hitters at 5:00 PM CDT.
    • 63°F partly cloudy conditions with a 15-mph wind in from center field suppress carry; weather snapshot was 5:00 PM CDT.
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.1 runs; fair total 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 55.8%; push probability 0%; inputs locked 12:00 PM CDT, release 12:08 PM CDT.
    • 2026 right-handed splits: Baltimore lineup averages .308 xwOBA versus RHP; Toronto averages .292 versus RHP.
    • Bassitt allowed .3597 xwOBA to left-handed batters; Baltimore starts four lefties, while Toronto puts eight right-handed bats against Scherzer.
    • Scherzer allowed only .2321 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in 2026; eight Toronto starters bat right-handed.
  6. Baltimore Orioles run line −1.52 models agree
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Scherzer owns a 6.07 ERA and 5.47 xFIP; his third-time-through-order xwOBA is .3509 versus .3301 first time.
    • Baltimore's posted lineup includes Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso; the T-35 personnel gate is met, and neither listed starter is on the active IL.
    • Toronto's bullpen has thrown 6.0 innings and 83 pitches over three days across five appearances; that workload caps this at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle corroborates at Baltimore −1.5 +176; current ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-23T10:02:28-07:00.
    • Confirmed Bassitt/Scherzer and posted starting lineups were checked at 10:00 AM PDT.
    • A one-run Baltimore win loses the −1.5 despite aligned moneyline flow.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Toronto Blue Jays F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away Max Scherzer's L5 ttop-2 xwOBA allowed is .2583 versus Chris Bassitt's .3394; Toronto's L30 split vs RHP is .3113 xwOBA versus Baltimore's .2995.
    • Most likely loss path: Baltimore's top three (Beavers, Alonso, Henderson) carry a combined current-season xwOBA around .337 versus Toronto's top three around .317.
  2. Toronto Blue Jays spread +2.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Polymarket US anchors imply an Orioles-heavy, roughly 9, 10-run game: Baltimore win 84.5c and over 9.5 at 42c.
    • The full-game spread ladder is internally inverted: Toronto +1.5 costs 58c, while the more favorable Toronto +2.5 costs only 42c.
    • This is a same-process ladder mismatch, not a team-strength projection; no independent sharp-reference confirmation is claimed.
    • Toronto is already down 0, 3, so a multi-run Orioles lead remains a concrete loss path.
  3. No 8th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US moneyline implies roughly 52.5% Baltimore, while the 7.5 total is priced near 50/50.
    • Historical calibration: 18,587 MLB finals show 9.10 mean runs, 9.0 median, and 0.80 right-skew; the 7.5 anchor is a lower-scoring environment.
    • An 8th-inning run immediately loses the NO position; inning outcomes are inherently high variance.
  4. Toronto Blue Jays spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US implies Baltimore around 56.5% to win; the 7.5 full-game total implies a modest scoring environment.
    • Parity-aware MLB final sample: the underdog covered +1.5 in 72.9% of 7-run games and 48.8% of 8-run games; the fitted 7.5 environment is about 70%.
    • The target is quoted live at 64.5c yes / 36c no, with both sides real, tradable, and recently moving.
    • Modest estimated edge of roughly 5 points before exchange costs; this is a lean, not a table-banger.
  5. Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors: Baltimore is 55¢ on the moneyline; full-game under 7.5 is 55.5¢.
    • Those liquid prices agree on a modest Baltimore edge in a lower-scoring game environment.
    • Full-game anchor centers near 7.5, 8 runs; starter-first-five adjustment implies roughly 3.4, 3.6 runs.
    • One crooked early inning can defeat a thin-window under.
  6. No 6th-inning draw
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors imply a modest Baltimore edge (54.5% BAL) in a 7.5-run environment (52.5% under).
    • 2026 MLB finals show 8.98 average runs, 8-run median and 15-run 90th percentile; this game is anchored below that right-skewed baseline.
    • A fitted ~7.5-run process allocates roughly half the mass to a one-inning tie, not the 66¢ quoted for a sixth-inning draw.
    • Per-inning markets are thin and the board-derived sixth-inning estimate has wider error than the liquid anchors.
  7. Toronto Blue Jays under 3.5 runs scored
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted Toronto lineup has wRC+ of 66.1, 79.2, 89.5, 82.8 and 83.1 in spots 5-9.
    • Baltimore's bullpen has only 2.33 IP and 35 pitches over the last three days, with zero back-to-back relievers.
    • Chris Bassitt is not a shutdown opponent: 4.64 current-season ERA and .339 xwOBA allowed in the game dossier.
  8. Toronto Blue Jays over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Toronto lineup has three left-handed bats against right-handed Trey Gibson.
    • Gibson: 7.36 season ERA, .3912 xwOBA allowed; last five starts show 9.58 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over 20.67 innings.
    • The starter-specific weakness is the structural reason to reject a generic lineup-average split, despite Toronto's modest .2984 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Toronto's .2984 xwOBA versus right-handers is not an elite offensive baseline, and the bottom three project weakly.
  9. Pete Alonso RBIs over 0.5
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
  10. Christian Franklin under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +19%Won

    Taken at −520 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10/10 recent games finished with zero RBI.
    • Vs RHP: .143 BA over 18 PA, 41% below the .243 league split average.
    • Confirmed Baltimore starter batting eighth; lineup status and participant identity are live-verified.
    • The right-handed split is a thin 18-PA sample.
  11. Baltimore Orioles 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baltimore is 24¢ in the 6th and 22¢ in the 8th, making the 7th's 16¢ home-win quote the isolated trough.
    • Baltimore is 46¢ to win the first five and 53¢ to win the full game; those broader contracts do not support a 16¢ seventh.
    • Bullpen regime supports Baltimore: Toronto logged 11 appearances, 12.0 IP and 193 pitches in three days versus Baltimore's 5, 5.33 IP and 91 pitches.
    • Probable starters were not posted and the starter lineup roster was empty, so no starter/TTO mechanism could be verified.
  12. Baltimore Orioles 6th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baltimore's 6th-inning price is 16¢, below 20¢ in both the 7th and 8th.
    • Full-game board favors Baltimore 54.5% and F5 winner board favors Baltimore 46% versus Toronto 40%.
    • Bullpen regime supports Baltimore: Toronto used 5 arms for 6.0 IP and 83 pitches over three days; Baltimore used 2 arms for 2.33 IP and 35 pitches.
    • The 6th may still be covered by a starter, especially Bassitt, weakening the bullpen mechanism.
  13. Max Scherzer 6+ strikeouts: NoFavoriteHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: 6+ Ks in only 1 of 16 starts; last 10 starts produced 6+ once.
    • Projection 4.1 Ks; fair NO probability 78% (fair price about 78¢), versus 66¢ live cost.
    • Workload is the insulation: 73, 83, 76, 97 pitches last four; L3 average 77.3 pitches projects to 4.8 IP.
    • A return to the 97-pitch outing or an efficient six-inning start can reach six.
  14. Trey Gibson under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on BetMGM

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Camden Yards is near-neutral for runs (98 park factor), offering no meaningful environment boost to an over.
    • His last three recorded starts were 5, 5, and 8 strikeouts, though those logs are from June and not contemporaneous.
  15. Game total under 9.5 runsFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  16. Game over 0.5 first-inning runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on BetMGM

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model baseline YRFI 56%; conservative stress case remains 53% after weather adjustment.
    • Trey Gibson: 7.36 ERA and .391 xwOBA allowed; first-inning sample shows .382 BA and 4 HR in 41 PA.
    • CJ Van Eyk has a .366 xwOBA allowed, 1.35 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9, despite only 6.7 innings.
    • Van Eyk’s 6.7-inning sample is extremely thin and may not represent his true talent.
  17. Toronto Blue Jays over 8 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 8 pushes with stake returned at exactly 8 total runs; over 8.5 loses at 8.
    • ProphetX over 8 is 47.17¢ (+112) versus over 8.5 at 43.48¢ (+130), only a 3.69¢ gap.
    • Exactly 8 runs produces a push, not a win; totals of 0-7 lose the contract.
  18. Any run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top four: Toronto Lukes/Smith/Okamoto/Springer; Baltimore Beavers/Alonso/Henderson/Mayo.
    • Lineup matchup xwOBA is .3405 for Toronto and .3182 for Baltimore versus right-handed pitching.
    • Bassitt and Scherzer's 2026 first-inning K rates are only 13.9% and 21.8%; both starters allow contact pathways.
    • The 2026 first-inning samples are only 17 and 16 starts, so run-rate estimates are noisy.
  19. Toronto Blue Jays first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent xwOBA-weighted F5 estimate: Toronto 55%; fair price approximately −122.
    • Trey Gibson owns a 7.36 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and .3912 xwOBA allowed.
    • Gibson's last five starts produced a 9.58 ERA over 20.67 innings; his last start was June 30.
    • CJ Van Eyk has only 6.67 innings and zero starts; Baltimore versus right-handers owns a .3175 xwOBA.
  20. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Trey Gibson allowed a .3824 first-inning BA with 4 HR and only a 9.8% K rate in 41 PA over 7 games.
    • Confirmed Toronto 1-3 face RHPs; Toronto's RHP split is .2984 xwOBA with an 18.1% K rate.
    • Gibson's first-inning sample is only 41 PA, so the .382 BA and 4 HR rate can regress sharply.
  21. First inning over 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top fours are confirmed: BAL Beavers/Alonso/Henderson/Mayo and TOR Lukes/Smith/Okamoto/Springer.
    • Scherzer's 2026 first-inning profile: 20 hits, 6 HR and 11 BB in 78 PA; Bassitt: 21 hits, 2 HR and 11 BB in 79 PA.
    • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different question about a different set of innings.
    • The pitcher first-inning samples are only 16 games for Scherzer and 17 for Bassitt in 2026.
  22. Game total under 7.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle also lists 7.5 under at −109; its latest captured board is 2:58 PM PT.
    • Related flow is mixed: Baltimore moneyline size is only 1.88x Toronto, while the 8-run rung carries heavier over size.

Questions

Who won Blue Jays vs. Orioles?

The Orioles won 4-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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