App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalDaikin Park
White Sox84-78
6-3
Astros81-81
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHW1201101006
HOU0000200103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros 6th-inning total under 0.5 43¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: PM anchors imply roughly 54% Houston win probability and an 8.5-run full-game center; the anchors are mutually coherent.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 16-6 on this game · +42% return

  1. Chicago White Sox to win2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 51.5% CWS: +56 run differential and .5342 pythagorean win rate versus Houston’s −32 and .4805.
    • Confirmed Hagen Smith: 1.35 ERA, .2432 xwOBA allowed, 12.82 K/9; AJ Blubaugh: 3.66 ERA, .317 xwOBA.
    • Smith has only 26.67 innings and one prior start, making the starter estimate unusually sample-sensitive.
    Fade the Arm
    • AJ Blubaugh's 4.55 xFIP and 4.27 xERA exceed his 3.66 ERA, understating Houston's starter liability.
    • Chicago's 2026 lineup versus right-handers shows .3151 xwOBA, clearing the desk's .315 gate against Blubaugh's handedness.
    • Velocity evidence is mixed: 95.24 mph is not below his prior-year 94.44 mph baseline, so the deterioration signal is not uniform.
  2. Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 hitsFavorite2 models agree
    +39%Won

    Taken at −254 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model estimates 82% for 1+ hit; DraftKings −254 implies 71.8%, a 10.2-point gap.
    • Alvarez recorded a hit in all 10 recent appearances, collecting 15 hits in 38 at-bats.
    • Hagen Smith is a confirmed left-handed starter with a strong 12.83 K/9 over 26.7 innings.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade: 74/100 (B); estimated hit probability 78% versus DK's 71.8% raw implied price.
    • 10-for-10 hit games in the last 10; 5-for-5 in the last five.
    • Hagen Smith is a high-strikeout lefty: 12.83 K/9 and 35.9% season K rate.
  3. Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros 6th-inning total under 0.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM anchors imply roughly 54% Houston win probability and an 8.5-run full-game center; the anchors are mutually coherent.
    • Pinnacle's HOU −119 moneyline and 8-run total reference independently support the venue's anchor direction.
    • inning sample is finite; one multi-run sixth loses the contract immediately.
  4. No chicago White Sox and Houston Astros 2nd-inning draw
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue anchors: Chicago White Sox moneyline YES 0.59; full-game total 8.5 with Over 0.48.
    • 2026 MLB finals: 2,429 games, mean 8.96 runs, median 8, SD 4.51; the fitted anchor environment is near 8.5.
    • Flat-rate nine-inning calibration gives roughly 48% for an inning tie and 52% for no tie; NO costs 0.42.
    • Draw is often the modal inning outcome; early starter suppression could push tie probability above the flat-rate estimate.
  5. Houston Astros over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's posted lineup is six right-handed and three left-handed hitters against verified lefty Hagen Smith.
    • Smith's profile shows 33 pitches per start and only 26.2 total innings; Chicago's bullpen logged 12.33 innings and 179 pitches over three days.
    • Smith's 1.35 ERA and .243 expected wOBA allowed are elite if his workload is not actually capped.
  6. Hagen Smith over 3.5 pitching outs
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starter; his 2026 regular-season workload is only 2.0 innings and 33 pitches per start.
    • Last three outings totaled 3.33 innings with 5 baserunners, a 1.50 WHIP.
    • Season BB% is 15.1%, clearing the 8.5% fallback command-deterioration threshold.
    • Smith's elite 1.35 ERA and 1.01 WHIP baseline is strongly negative for an undersized workload prop.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Total runs over 8.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived reference: Pinnacle 8.0 is −114/−101, devigged over 51.7%; 8.0 is the push anchor, PM 8.5 is no-push.
    • Ledger: CWS bullpen 12.33 IP/3d adds +0.40 runs to Houston; HOU 9.0 IP/3d adds none; net capped at +0.40 partial.
    • No platoon or cluster deductions: CWS .3151 xwOBA vs RHP, HOU .3102 vs LHP; wRC+/RPG are 102.8/4.79 and 106.0/4.53.
    • Partial coverage: Blubaugh has 0 2026 GS/incomplete profile and Smith has 1 GS/incomplete profile.
  2. Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros over 8.5 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    Vig GapUp 20% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Movement: Polymarket briefly rose to 48.5¢, returned to 47.5¢, and was flat at that level through 1:23 PM; latest movement is not closing the gap.
    • Both contracts match the full-game 8.5-run total; this is the only qualifying moderate gap found on the main game markets.
    • The 4.21-point gross edge is moderate, so normal one-run scoring variance can erase it.
  3. Game under 8.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.9 projected total runs; fair total line 7.9; under 8.5 win probability 58.2%; push probability 0%; model timestamp 3:30 PM CDT.
    • Confirmed 3:30 PM CDT starters: Hagen Smith owns a .2432 xwOBA allowed and 12.82 K/9; AJ Blubaugh has a .317 xwOBA allowed.
    • The lineups are confirmed 1, 9; Houston's .3102 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and Chicago's .3151 versus right-handed pitching are ordinary matchup baselines.
    • Houston's bullpen has logged 7.0 innings and 101 pitches over three days, creating late-inning scoring risk.
  4. AJ Blubaugh pitching strikeouts over 4FavoriteHigh conviction
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.3 projected Ks; last five appearances averaged 17.6 pitches (15, 24, 10, 22, 17).
    • Official MLB preview confirms Houston is using Blubaugh in a bullpen game; no workload limit was published.
    • No specific pitch cap is published; a surprise third-inning bridge role could create four strikeout chances.
  5. Game total over 8.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both listed starters are short-outing profiles: Blubaugh has 0 2026 starts; Smith's only start was 2.0 IP.
    • Trailing ten-game scoring is 6.5 R/G for Chicago and 5.9 for Houston; neither offense is in the ghost-offense state.
    • Burn believability is medium, not certain: rested high-leverage arms could erase the bullpen-load advantage.
  6. Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros first-inning runs over 0.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • My blended fair YRFI estimate is 54, 56% versus Polymarket US pricing at 49¢.
    • NRFI board priors show 66.1% Houston and 67.3% Chicago first-inning scoreless rates; their complement implies 56.4% YRFI before matchup adjustment.
    • Chicago's confirmed top four average .329 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Blubaugh's current xwOBA allowed is .317.
    • Hagen Smith has elite current indicators, 37.3% K rate, 35.6% whiff proxy, and .243 xwOBA allowed, suppressing Houston's half-inning.
  7. Total runs under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 8 pushes on exactly eight combined runs; under 8.5 wins on eight.
    • ProphetX quotes under 8 at 48.31¢ (+107) versus under 8.5 at 52.83¢ (−112), only a 4.52-point gap.
    • Exactly eight runs is a push, not a win; nine or more runs loses the contract.
  8. Houston Astros run line −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston −1 pushes if Houston wins by exactly one; Houston −1.5 loses in that outcome.
    • ProphetX quotes Houston −1 at 44.25¢ (+126) versus Houston −1.5 at 36.76¢ (+172), only a 7.49-point gap.
    • The contract still loses on any Houston loss; the push option does not improve the outcome when Houston wins by two or more.
  9. Taylor Trammell under 0.5 hits
    +69%Won

    Taken at −144 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated hit probability is 36%, so the under is roughly 64% versus DraftKings' 59% break-even.
    • Trammell is 4-for-43 against left-handers (.108 average) in the 2026 split.
    • His season baseline is 50 hits in 289 plate appearances (.173 hits per PA).
    • The left-handed split is only 43 plate appearances and may materially understate true ability.
  10. First inning over 0.5 runs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes are confirmed: Peña, Alvarez, Paredes and Antonacci, Teel, Vargas.
    • Blubaugh’s regular-season first-inning sample is 3 games/11 PA; Smith’s is 1 game/4 PA.
    • Derived reference is not a Pinnacle/sharp reference; lineup-specific run conversion remains approximate.
  11. Game total under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection is secondary: Hagen Smith has a 1.35 ERA and 12.83 K/9; Daikin Park's run factor is 96. Board as_of_pt 2026-09-29T13:26:55-07:00.
    • AJ Blubaugh's 3.66 ERA and Chicago's 179 bullpen pitches over 3 days create late-run risk.
  12. Chicago White Sox run line +1
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hagen Smith is posted. His current line is 1.35 ERA and 12.82 K/9. The 18-player lineup was posted at 11:30 PDT.
    • Single most likely loss: Houston wins by two or more runs. Chicago +1 does not cover.
  13. Chase Meidroth over 0.5 hits
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15 hits and 8 hit games in his last 10 contests.
    • Confirmed active and starting eighth for Chicago.
    • AJ Blubaugh carries a 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .317 xwOBA against.
    • Batting eighth can reduce plate appearances and late-game opportunities.
  14. Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −132 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 runs in his last 10 games, scoring in 70% of the sample.
    • Confirmed active and batting second for Houston.
    • His .4091 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching supports continued run-creation despite the platoon disadvantage.
    • Hagen Smith has allowed a .2432 xwOBA and owns a 1.35 ERA.

Questions

Who won White Sox vs. Astros?

The White Sox won 6-3 on Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.