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FinalTropicana Field
Yankees93-68
2–5Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYY0001000102
TB10004000–5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cam Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts −102

Why MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL likes it: Confirmed Rays lineup averaged 17.0% strikeouts vs. right-handers (571 K / 3,365 PA).

MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELDown 3% this season · 117 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 6-19 on this game · −48% return

  1. New York Yankees to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsDrift, Resting Money +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Drift
    • MLB power rating: Yankees 56.0% from +138 run differential versus Tampa Bay's +86 and confirmed starters Schlittler (2.85 xERA) vs. Peralta (3.84 xERA).
    • Pinnacle exact moneyline, devigged: Yankees 52.9% now; opened at 53.7%, a negligible 0.8-point drift against New York, effectively flat.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta outpitches Schlittler or Tampa's home advantage outweighs New York's team and starter edges.
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing New York Yankees, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX self-reference is not independent order-flow evidence; displayed orders can be cancelled or stale, and this pattern is unvalidated.
    Fade the Arm
    • Freddy Peralta's five most recent fastball readings were 92.70, 93.65 mph, 0.69, 1.64 below his 94.34 mph season baseline; TTO3 K% is 14.2% versus 27.3% TTO1.
    • Peralta's allowed xwOBA rises from .2856 TTO1 to .3108 TTO3; the posted Yankees lineup faces a right-hander against a .325 team xwOBA split.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta's recent run prevention holds (0.96 ERA over his last five), and the rested Rays bullpen closes out a low-scoring game.
    MLB Default Picks
    • Ledger: Yankees +7.0 points, starter +7 (xFIP +4, xwOBA-against +2, L5 ERA/WHIP +1); all other groups 0/N/A.
    • Schlittler xFIP 2.86 versus Peralta 4.37 and xwOBA allowed .262 versus .302; both current starters and lineups are confirmed.
    • Aaron Judge is off the ALDS roster with a calf strain; confirmed lineup strength nets to zero after that -1 adjustment.
  2. Cam Schlittler over 6.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    3 modelsBello, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Bello
    • 6, 5, 10 Ks in his last three starts: 7.0 per start, clearing 6.5 once; latest outing reached 10.
    • 2026 regular-season line: 11.11 K/9 and 31.4% K rate; DraftKings -115, versus Pinnacle -120.
    • Schlittler cleared 6.5 in only one of his last three starts; one strikeout separates over from under.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite: 71/100 (B); clears the 70-point bar and projection-edge gate.
    • Schlittler went over 6.5 Ks in 6/10 recent starts and 20/33 starts this season.
    • No three-start over streak: his latest start produced five strikeouts, and L5 is only 3/5 over.
    Number Earned
    • Estimated 58% to clear 6.5 Ks; model fair price about -138 versus DraftKings -120.
    • Schlittler has 11.11 K/9 across the season and recorded 10, 5, 6, 8, 10, 9 Ks in his last six starts (4/6 over).
    • Two of Schlittler's last six starts finished below this line; an early hook or reduced postseason leash can cap his chances.
  3. Cam Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Confirmed Rays lineup averaged 17.0% strikeouts vs. right-handers (571 K / 3,365 PA).
    • Schlittler’s 31.4% season K rate Log5-blends to roughly 24% against this lineup.
    • His latest start produced 10 Ks in 22 batters faced; strikeout upside is real.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Schlittler is the confirmed starter; his season workload averages 5.87 innings and 92 pitches per start.
    • Tampa Bay’s handedness split covers 4,478 plate appearances, providing a substantial opponent sample.
    • He went under 6.5 in only 2 of his last 5 starts (10, 5, 6, 8, 10 strikeouts).
    MLB HunterV2
    • Schlittler had 239 Ks in 761 batters faced (31.4%); adjusting that rate for Tampa's lower-than-average strikeout tendency gives roughly 27.4%.
    • At about 23 batters faced, that simple estimate is roughly 6.3 Ks and about a 55% chance of 6 or fewer; FanDuel -102 implies 50.5%.
    • The probability estimate is a simple pitcher-rate plus opponent-adjustment model, not a fully calibrated strikeout distribution.
  4. Freddy Peralta over 14.5 pitcher outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16.2 projected outs, 1.7 above the 14.5 line; estimated clear probability 65%.
    • Peralta recorded 15+ outs in 23 of 32 regular-season starts; at Tampa Bay, 8 of 10.
    • He cleared 14.5 in all five latest starts; average pitch count was 88.4.
    • Playoff leverage can bring an earlier hook; Rays’ bullpen used only 14 pitches over the prior three days.
  5. Cam Schlittler 7+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: 21 of 34 starts reached 7+ K (61.8%); average outing was 5.88 IP and 92.9 pitches.
    • Historical innings: under 4 IP in 2/34 starts, under 5 in 5/34, and 6+ IP in 21/34.
    • Confirmed Yankees order logged 2,934 PA and 687 K vs RHP in 2026 (23.4% K).
    • 34 starts are a limited empirical projection; one outing's command or efficiency can shift the result sharply.
  6. 2-leg parlayFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −374

    Dr. Two LegsDown 7% over 73 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Williams cleared 80 pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts (89, 113, 99) and is listed as today's starter with no IL flag.
    • Peralta's 2026 K/9 is 8.31, and his recent 4-start strikeout results were 4, 6, 4, 2.
Show all 17 picks
  1. New York Yankees −5.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +830 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • The Yankees are priced at +830 for the requested -5.5 alternate run line: a true longshot with a legendary payout.
    • Cam Schlittler enters with a 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.11 K/9 in the slate profile.
    • Lou Gehrig wore the pinstripes; tonight we chase the historic Bronx blowout without apology.
    • They must win by at least six runs; a one-run win still loses this wager.
  2. Freddy Peralta over 1.5 earned runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 xERA 3.84 (ERA 4.31); Yankees posted lineup owns a .325 xwOBA vs right-handers.
    • Peralta averaged 5.28 IP/start this season; last five starts averaged 5.6 IP and 88 pitches.
    • Conservative 5.0-IP Poisson model: λ 2.13 ER; P(2+) 62.9%, fair price about -170.
    • Actual ERA is higher than xERA, but Peralta's 21.4% K rate and 12.7% K-BB rate leave contact risk.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 run line
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Tampa Bay Rays +1.5, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • ProphetX self-reference is not independent order-flow evidence; displayed orders can be cancelled or stale, and this pattern is unvalidated.
  4. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  5. New York Yankees run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta’s 2026 TTO strikeout rate falls from 27.3% on first trips (143 PA) to 14.2% on third trips (141 PA); allowed xwOBA rises .2856 to .3108.
    • New York’s 2026 split versus right-handers is .325 xwOBA and .417 SLG, clearing the xwOBA platoon gate; its 24.3% K rate is a counterpoint.
    • Personnel gate: both starters are listed, neither appears on the active IL, and all nine Yankees starters are posted. Judge is not in the lineup.
    • Most likely loss: Peralta’s recent form holds and New York fails to win by two; his last-three and last-five ERA snapshots are 0.56 and 0.96.
  6. Junior Caminero 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 42 HR in 702 PA (6.0% HR/PA); batting third gives him a strong chance at four-plus plate appearances.
    • Tropicana’s 112 HR park factor adds lift; Schlittler allows a 34.0% fly-ball rate and 11.6% HR/FB. Pure projection; no sharp HR reference found.
    • Venue coherence check: Caminero’s 4+ total-bases YES is 21¢ versus 19¢ for 1+ HR; no inversion, not an independent price reference.
    • 19¢ is a thin price gap: the 6.0% season HR/PA rate implies about 22% over four PA before matchup adjustments, not a precise projection.
  7. Total runs over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Platoon ledger 0.00: Rays .3133 xwOBA vs RHP (4,478 PA), Yankees .3250 (4,649 PA); neither is below .310. Neither top five has 2+ qualifying sub-.280 xwOBA / sub-.180 AVG hitters at 60+ PA.
    • Most likely loss: eight or fewer runs; 7.5 has no push protection, and strong starter outings can suppress scoring.
  8. Tampa Bay Rays −1.5Long shot
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors: Yankees ~53% on the moneyline; full-game total 6.5 is near even. They imply a coherent, low-scoring game with a slight Yankees edge.
    • Across 7,420 MLB games (2023, 25 regular season and playoffs), home teams won 3,915; 2,642 home wins were by 2+ runs (67.5% of home wins).
    • The ~31.7% estimate uses leaguewide home-win margin frequencies, not a matchup-specific margin model; postseason and team effects may differ.
  9. First five innings end tiedLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NYY moneyline at 53¢ and full-game over 6.5 at 52¢ anchor a close, roughly 6.8-run game.
    • Pinnacle independently has NYY favored (-117) and over 6.5 (-115); anchors are consistent.
    • A small shift in the fitted team run rates could erase the roughly four-point gap; one early run makes the tie less likely.
  10. Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 66% estimated hit probability versus 57.6% implied by DraftKings -136; about 8 percentage points of margin.
    • Aranda recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games, clearing the brief's 60% recent-form threshold.
    • Season batting average is .274 over 580 at-bats; today's posted lineup has him batting second.
    • Cam Schlittler is a difficult matchup: 1.95 season ERA and .206 expected batting average allowed in the game preview.
  11. Total runs Under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's team-total thresholds (TB 2.5, NYY 3.5) sum to 6, below the posted full-game 6.5; its first-five total is 3.5.
    • Tropicana's run factor is 98 with the dome closed; neither bullpen has a back-to-back reliever, and workload was 3.0 NYY / 1.0 TB innings over three days.
    • Most likely loss: seven or more runs, especially if New York's .3250 xwOBA versus right-handers turns contact into extra-base damage.

Questions

Who won Yankees vs. Rays?

The Rays won 5-2 on Monday, Oct 5, 2026.

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