Get app
FinalPetco Park
Brewers103-59
3–1Final
Padres91-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0010110003
SD0010000001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Milwaukee Brewers to win −104

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: The pattern was profitable in 2023 (+21.1%) and 2024 (+15.6%); 2025 was essentially flat (-0.3%).

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 42-18 on this game · +34% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win12 models agreeHigh conviction
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    12 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Drift +10
    Why 12 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • The pattern was profitable in 2023 (+21.1%) and 2024 (+15.6%); 2025 was essentially flat (-0.3%).
    • Gasser leads Buehler 3.87, 4.63 in season ERA and 1.19, 1.35 in WHIP; L5 ERA is 1.67, 4.43.
    • The historical pattern is team-specific and in-sample; its 2025 result was slightly negative.
    Drift
    • Milwaukee owns a +214 run differential versus San Diego's +41 over 162 games.
    • Brewers lead current-season hitting quality: 107.8 wRC+ and .3268 xwOBA versus 100.9 and .3138.
    • Most likely loss: San Diego's home field and Buehler outperform the matching 4.27 xERA projections.
    Fade the Arm
    • Walker Buehler's TTO xwOBA rises .269/.336/.353 from TTO1-TTO3; K rate falls 25.7% to 19.4% to 19.7%.
    • Milwaukee versus right-handed pitching: .3268 xwOBA, .408 SLG, .226 K rate; all platoon gates clear.
    • Most likely loss: Buehler exits before the late-order decay matters and San Diego wins a low-scoring game.
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Model 53% Brewers versus 50% devigged Pinnacle fair probability.
    • Robert Gasser: 3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP; Walker Buehler: 4.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.
    • The market already moved sharply toward Milwaukee, reducing the initial information advantage.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win5 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    5 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Estimated fair probability 60.0% (fair -150) versus FanDuel -122; +7.9 points over 52.1% devigged F5 market.
    • Gasser: 3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.48 K/9; Buehler: 4.63, 1.35, 7.67 K/9.
    • Both starters show identical 4.27 xERA and .317 xwOBA allowed; the advantage leans on actual and recent results.
    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0
    • Brewers versus right-handed pitching: .259 average and .327 xwOBA.
    • Padres versus left-handed pitching: .241 average and .306 xwOBA.
    • Buehler's season expected ERA is 4.27, matching Gasser's, so regression can erase the form gap.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • 57% independent cash estimate; fair price approximately -133 versus FanDuel -122.
    • Buehler: 4.63 season ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.43 L5 ERA; Gasser: 3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 1.67 L5 ERA.
    • Both starters have identical .317 expected wOBA allowed and 4.27 xERA, so the recent-form edge may regress.
    Bello
    • Gasser's last three starts average 5.41 IP at 15.72 P/IP; Buehler's average 4.52 IP at 16.93 P/IP.
    • Gasser's rolling velocity/spin are +0.20 mph/-25 rpm versus season; Buehler is -0.04 mph/+66 rpm: no decay trigger.
    • Buehler's recent 4.52-IP average is below the 5.0-IP workload gate, so his form can simply rebound.
  3. Robert Gasser over 2.5 strikeouts4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    4 modelsMLB HunterV2, MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL +2
    Why 4 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • Model probability 77% versus roughly 51% implied at -104.
    • San Diego's projected lineup faces a lefty with a 21.5% team strikeout rate versus LHP.
    • A playoff hook or inefficient pitch count could limit him below his normal workload.
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 4.5 projected strikeouts; 84% modeled probability of clearing 2.5.
    • Confirmed nine-man Padres lineup projects 21.5% strikeouts versus a left-handed starter.
    • Gasser had only 2 Ks in his most recent seven-inning start; contact variance remains material.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Grade 78/100 (B); blended projection 4.9 Ks versus 2.5, a 96% projection edge.
    • 95% season hit rate (19/20); 90% L10 (9/10); 80% L5 (4/5).
    • A two-strikeout outing occurred in the last five starts; current hit streak is only one.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 5.0 strikeouts per start over his last five outings (9, 2, 5, 5, 4), double the line.
    • 8.33 recent K/9 and 8.48 season K/9 support repeatable strikeout skill.
    • San Diego's lineup strikeout rate versus lefties is only 21.5%, a modest matchup.
  4. Game total Under 7.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsUnder Current, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Under Current
    • MIL and SD team-total rungs are both 3.5, implying 7.0 runs below the 7.5 game total; 1st-5th Under 4.5 also supports suppression.
    • Petco suppresses scoring: 92 run factor and 94 home-run factor; clear 78°F weather with only 6 mph wind in from left field.
    • Confirmed lineups are not contact-averse: MIL versus right-handed pitching carries .3268 xwOBA, while SD versus lefties carries .3060.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • 2026 starter xFIPs are 4.34 (Robert Gasser) and 4.22 (Walker Buehler), supporting a low-scoring baseline.
    • Milwaukee (.3268) and San Diego (.3198) both rank below .327 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • San Diego's bullpen logged 177 pitches over three days, creating late-inning over risk.
    Long Way Home
    • Listed starters are confirmed: Robert Gasser brings a 3.87 ERA/1.19 WHIP; Walker Buehler is at 4.63/1.35, with both xERAs 4.27.
    • San Diego's lineup owns only a .306 xwOBA and .3779 SLG versus left-handed pitching; Gasser is the confirmed lefty starter.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee's .3268 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching punishes Buehler early and turns the game into an over.
  5. Total runs under 7.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsParity Desk, ProphetX No Vig MLB
    Why 2 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Ledger: Padres platoon -0.50 runs from .306 xwOBA versus LHP; Brewers 0.00 from .3268 versus RHP; bullpen fatigue 0.00.
    • The total is close to 7.5; one efficient sequencing inning or extra innings can overturn the under.
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Padres .306 xwOBA versus LHP over 1,693 PA triggers -0.50 runs; Partial cap applies -0.40 to San Diego.
    • Brewers .3268 xwOBA versus RHP over 4,491 PA receives no debit; postseason bullpen b2b is 0 for both teams.
    • Most likely loss: San Diego's right-handed bats overcome the -0.40-run debit and produce eight or more runs.
  6. Walker Buehler over 8.5 outs recorded2 models agree
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB HunterV2, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB HunterV2
    • Model probability 80% versus roughly 55% implied at -124.
    • Buehler has completed at least three innings in the overwhelming majority of his starts; his season workload is 153.67 innings over 32 starts.
    • A short playoff leash, early pitch-count trouble, or an injury can end the outing before three innings.
    Bello
    • Buehler's last three starts were 4.0, 4.56, and 5.0 IP: 4.52 average, well above the 8.5-out threshold.
    • His season workload is 81.5 pitches/start at 16.97 P/IP; the line requires only three completed innings.
    • The last-three workload average is below the brief's 5.0-IP threshold, so an early hook remains plausible.
Show all 36 picks
  1. Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeoutsLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +250 on BetMGM

    2 modelsShawn's K-Floor Staircase, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Last 4 workloads: 87, 107, 89, 83 pitches; L3 workload projects 5.9 IP with no sub-70 outing.
    • Season K/9 8.48; L3 8.00; L5 8.33; actual Ks were 25 in the last 5 and 51 in the last 10.
    • TTO3 K rate is 14.9% versus 28.0% in TTO1, a 13.1-point decay that raises the 75-80-pitch hook risk.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Padres strike out 21.5% versus left-handed pitching; matchup is neutral, not a major drag.
    • Gasser recorded 9, 2, 5, 5 and 4 Ks in his last five starts; over 3.5 hit in four.
    • San Diego's 21.5% lefty K rate is below the 25% prime-over threshold.
  2. Walker Buehler over 2.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −129 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability 72%; DraftKings -129 break-even is 56.3%, a +15.7-point edge.
    • Buehler's season K/9 is 7.67, with 8.06 K/9 across his last five starts.
    • Buehler's 20.1% season strikeout rate is below the Brewers' broader matchup K rate.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • Posted nine-man Brewers lineup and Buehler’s starter identity were confirmed live; Milwaukee’s projected lineup K rate is 22.6%.
    • trial lineup-specific Poisson-binomial baseline used Buehler’s 20.1% 2026 K/BF rate and recent 4.47-IP workload, then shifted to the sharp anchor.
    • Because the soft and sharp lines are both 2.5, market anchoring leaves no tail benefit; this is purely a price edge.
  3. Robert Gasser over 8.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 12.1 outs; 78% over 8.5, clearing the 1.2-out minimum by 3.6 outs.
    • Last five starts produced 13, 14, 15, 18, and 21 outs; average workload was 88.4 pitches.
    • Confirmed true starter with 20 regular-season starts, 12 days’ rest, no IL status, and no reported limit.
    • Brewers’ three postseason starters averaged 12 outs, so playoff hook behavior may compress Gasser’s regular-season range.
  4. Walker Buehler over 1.5 earned runs allowedHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on Fanatics

    Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.63 season ERA, 4.27 xERA, and 4.43 ERA over his last five starts.
    • Buehler averages 4.80 innings and 81.5 pitches per start; 11 days' rest and no IL or pitch-limit flag.
    • Milwaukee's confirmed lineup faces a right-hander with a .3268 team xwOBA versus RHP.
    • A 4.8-IP average creates early-hook risk before Buehler reaches two earned runs.
  5. Robert Gasser over 10 recorded outsHigh conviction
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gasser cleared 10 outs in each of his last five regular-season starts, recording 13 or more every time.
    • Those five starts averaged 5.4 innings and 88.4 pitches; his season workload is 86.75 pitches per start.
    • He is a confirmed starter with no current IL flag; no announced pitch cap was found.
    • This is an NLDS start, so a manager can pull him before the fourth inning after one high-leverage mistake.
  6. Fernando Tatis Jr. RBIs YES 0.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tatis is confirmed batting first, projected 4.3 PA; versus LHP: .3077 AVG, .4018 xwOBA over 165 PA.
    • Most likely loss: Tatis bats first with no runner ahead and never gets a runner in scoring position to drive home.
  7. Robert Gasser over 5.5 strikeoutsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1120 on DraftKings

    K’sDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25 Ks in 105 recent batters faced (23.8%); season K rate is 22.3%.
    • L5 workload: 27.0 IP and 442 pitches, or 5.4 IP and 88.4 pitches per start.
    • Whiff-generation converges: 22.5% whiff, 11.1% SwStr, 27.9% CSW; arsenal-level whiffs corroborate it.
    • San Diego's versus-lefty K rate is only 21.5%; the matchup clash adds just 0.8 percentage points.
  8. Walker Buehler over 0.5 earned runsFavorite
    +53%Won

    Taken at −190 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 105% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed active starter; Buehler is scheduled to face Milwaukee as San Diego's RHP.
    • Milwaukee's current overall wRC+ is 107.7, above the 105 offense-quality threshold; its 30-day xwOBA versus RHP is .3192.
    • Buehler allowed 8 earned runs across his last 3 starts (4.80 ERA), clearing 0.5 ER in all three.
    • Milwaukee's posted team total is only 3.5 runs, below the preferred 4.5-run threshold.
  9. Walker Buehler 3+ pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buehler produced 3+ Ks in 26 of 32 regular-season starts (0.81).
    • Milwaukee’s posted lineup has 744 strikeouts in 3,274 PA versus right-handers (22.7%).
    • Buehler averaged only 4.80 IP; 4 of 32 starts ended below three innings.
  10. First-inning runs under 0.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed top-three xwOBA vs hand averages .334 MIL and .349 SD; first-inning BA allowed .241/.205.
    • Conservative lineup/starter shrinkage estimates P(first-inning run) at 37% (34, 40% range), making NO roughly 63% fair.
    • Petco factors 92 runs and 94 HR; clear 78°F weather and 6-mph wind in from left field suppress the frame.
    • Fernando Tatis Jr. carries .402 xwOBA versus left-handers, and one elite at-bat can break a low-base-rate under.
  11. San Diego Padres under 3.5 runs scoredFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Padres lineup versus LHP Robert Gasser: team xwOBA .306 and K rate 21.5% against lefties.
    • Gasser's 2026 profile: .317 xwOBA allowed, 1.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last five starts.
    • Petco's park-factor run index is 92; San Diego has scored zero through two completed innings.
    • Tatis (.376 xwOBA) and Ty France (.328) anchor a dangerous lineup; one homer can break 3.5.
  12. San Diego Padres −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel +182 and DraftKings +190 both price Padres -1.5 above the venue's 31.5c no-side cost.
    • 2026 completed-game data puts absolute margins of 2+ at 72.4%, about 36% per side before the modest Padres tilt.
    • Starters are closely matched at 4.27 xERA; Padres' home bullpen has slightly less recent workload (8.33 vs 9.0 innings).
    • The game is already live at 0-0 in the top of the third; remaining-run variance is substantial.
  13. Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers relievers logged 142 pitches and Padres relievers 177 over the last three days.
    • Robert Gasser's 3.87 ERA trails a 4.27 xERA and 4.15 SIERA, signaling run-regression risk.
    • Brewers versus righties post .327 xwOBA; Padres versus lefties post .306 xwOBA.
    • Petco Park has a 92 run factor and 94 home-run factor.
  14. Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +38%Won

    Taken at −266 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting first at 3:50 PM PDT; active starter status is verified.
    • 2026 vs LHP: .3077 average and .4018 xwOBA across 165 PA.
    • Hit in 8 of his last 10 regular-season appearances; L7 average .3704.
    • Robert Gasser is a confirmed left-handed starter, but his command or pitch mix can suppress contact.
  15. Walker Buehler over 8.5 outs
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 88%; DraftKings -124 break-even is 55.4%, a +32.6-point edge.
    • Buehler averages 4.80 innings and 81.5 pitches per start across 32 regular-season starts.
    • He cleared 8.5 outs in 9 of his last 10 starts, averaging 14.8 outs in that span.
    • Postseason strategy can shorten a starter's leash despite his established regular-season workload.
  16. Walker Buehler over 8.5 pitcher outs
    +68%Won

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Grade 76/100 (B); blended projection 14.6 outs versus 8.5, a 72% projection edge.
    • 87.5% season hit rate (28/32); 90% L10 (9/10); 80% L5 (4/5).
    • Buehler has 32 regular-season starts and is confirmed after 10 days' rest; role and workload are established.
    • His most recent start lasted only 11 outs on 73 pitches, creating a real postseason-hook concern.
  17. over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  18. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.1 runs, fair total line 8.0, win probability 55.7%, push probability 0.0%; model run at 8:24 PM CDT.
    • Official 1, 9 lineups were posted at 8:20 PM CDT; Milwaukee's vs-RHP team xwOBA is .3268 and San Diego's vs-LHP team xwOBA is .3060.
    • Both confirmed starters carry a 4.27 xERA and .317 xwOBA allowed; Robert Gasser brings 8.48 K/9, while Walker Buehler is at 7.67 K/9.
    • Petco Park's 92 run factor and a 6-mph wind in from left field suppress the raw offensive projection.
  19. Game extra inningsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters carry 4.27 xERA; matchup xwOBA is .327 for Milwaukee vs RHP and .306 for San Diego vs LHP.
    • Low, close shape: projected runs are approximately 4.1 Milwaukee and 3.5 San Diego; equal-score mass remains meaningful.
    • Both bullpens logged 9.0/8.33 innings and 142/177 pitches over three days; no back-to-back relievers, but late scoreless stretches remain plausible.
    • No sharp reference exists for extra innings; the roughly 2.5-point gap is self-model uncertainty.
  20. Walker Buehler over 12 recorded outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buehler's last five starts averaged 13.4 recorded outs and 78 pitches, above the 12-out threshold.
    • He reached at least 12 outs in three of those five starts; the season workload is 4.80 innings and 81.5 pitches per start.
    • San Diego's bullpen logged 177 pitches over three days and was described as unsettled, supporting a longer starter leash.
    • Buehler reached 12 outs in only three of his last five starts; the recent hit rate is materially thinner than Gasser's.
  21. San Diego Padres run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-07T18:19:22-07:00; starters and lineups were confirmed before the pull.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee wins, or San Diego wins by exactly one run; -1.5 has no push.
  22. Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres total under 8.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
  23. Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ home run NOFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My rough HR probability is 15, 16% versus Polymarket YES at 19¢, making NO at 82¢ modestly favorable.
    • Tatis is confirmed leadoff with an 8.0% barrel rate, 35.7% hard-hit rate and .376 xwOBA.
    • Robert Gasser allows 1.24 HR/9, .1095 HR/FB and fly balls only 27.7% of contact.
    • Tatis’ 25-season-HR power can overwhelm suppressive conditions with one mistake.
  24. San Diego Padres +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket

    Sharp Cohort MLBNew model
  25. Milwaukee Brewers +2.5Favorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue anchors imply a low-scoring game: San Diego ~55% to win and under 6.5 at ~55%.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed (8.95 mean, 8 median, 15 p90); the fitted low-total shape makes a 3-run loss less likely.
    • Internal-coherence play only: the obscure +2.5 rung follows the liquid anchors without opposing the slight San Diego edge.
    • Live state is 0-0, top 2nd; an early multi-run inning can rapidly invalidate the in-play fit.
  26. Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres over 0.5 runs in the 2nd inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors agree: Polymarket US makes Padres 51¢ and 7.5-game over 51¢; Pinnacle is near pick'em with a 7.5 total.
    • The fitted 7.5-run environment implies roughly 0.8 runs per inning and about a 51% second-inning run probability under a flat slice.
    • The first-five ladder reinforces the scoring baseline: over 3.5 is 61¢ and over 4.5 is 48¢, making 44¢ on second-inning over the largest clean early-inning gap.
    • The target is extremely thin versus the 299,221-share moneyline and 52,940-share main total; the quote may move sharply or be stale between refreshes.
  27. Game first-five total under 5.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The full-game total is 7.5 at roughly even money; an F5 expectation around four runs is structurally consistent, not inflated by bullpen noise.
    • Petco Park’s run factor is 92, with clear conditions and a 6 mph wind blowing in from left field.
    • Gasser’s 2026 xERA is 4.27 with a .205 first-inning BA allowed; both starters have 4.27 xERA despite different surface ERAs.
    • Both posted lineups are capable against the opposing hand; San Diego’s top order includes a .402 xwOBA mark and Milwaukee’s top five reach .373.
  28. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread +1.5Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Robert Gasser owns a 3.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.48 K/9; Walker Buehler is at 4.63 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
    • Gasser’s first-inning BA allowed is .205 with a 30.2% first-inning K rate; Buehler’s are .241 and 24.2%.
    • Milwaukee’s first five hitters versus right-handed pitching carry .320-.373 xwOBA marks, supporting a close F5 distribution.
    • San Diego’s top five versus left-handed pitching include Fernando Tatis Jr. at .402 xwOBA and three more hitters above .322.
  29. San Diego Padres spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Padres +1 pushes when Milwaukee wins by exactly one; it loses only by two or more.
    • ProphetX's adjacent Padres +1.5 / Brewers -1.5 pair implies about -144 fair odds for Padres +1 after the push adjustment; the live quote is -140.
    • No independent sharp book posted a whole-number +1 rung; the -144 reference is inferred from ProphetX's own adjacent ladder.
  30. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: Brewers are thin at quote and deep in total depth; the raw thin-side stake exceeds the few-hundred-dollar rule of thumb.
    • Directional check: backing Milwaukee Brewers -1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the Brewers.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Padres?

The Brewers won 3-1 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.