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FinalTropicana Field
Guardians85-77
7–3Final
Rays98-64
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE0000011237
TB2000000103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Rays F5 winner 52¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Fair F5 vector is TB 56.0%, CLE 27.0%, draw 17.0%; TB venue quote 52%/49% devigs to 51.5%, a 4.5p gap.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 25-39 on this game · −22% return

  1. Tampa Bay Rays to win10 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    10 modelsDrift, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Drift
    • Tampa Bay's +86 run differential and 98-64 record materially exceed Cleveland's +11 and 85-77.
    • Rasmussen: 3.06 xERA, 28.0% CSW; Griffin: 4.35 xERA, 27.4% CSW, both confirmed starters.
    • Most likely loss: Griffin's actual 3.60 ERA can outperform his 4.35 xERA in a single playoff start.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Griffin: 4.35 xERA and .320 xwOBA allowed versus Rasmussen: 3.06 xERA and .271 xwOBA allowed.
    • Confirmed nine-man lineups are posted; Tampa Bay's top three hitters carry .347, .346, and .363 xwOBA.
    • Rays -163 is a modest edge only: my 63.0% estimate versus 60.0% sharp devigged fair probability and roughly -150 fair price.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Rasmussen’s 3.06 expected ERA is 1.29 runs better than Griffin’s 4.35.
    • Tampa bullpen entered rested: 0.0 innings and 0 pitches over the last three days.
    • The market drift toward Cleveland may reflect information not yet visible in the preview.
    high-confidence main markets
    • 64% independent win estimate versus 60.0% de-vigged market reference; fair price about -178.
    • Drew Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.11 K/9 versus Foster Griffin's 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.24 K/9.
    • The price drifted from Tampa Bay -174 opening to -163; that market move is directly against this position.
  2. Foster Griffin over 3.5 strikeouts5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Griffin cleared 3.5 strikeouts in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • His season K/9 is 8.24 and his last-three-start K/9 is 11.68.
    • Griffin's last-five-start ERA is 6.17, creating early-hook and workload risk.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Last 10 starts went over in 7/10; last five went over in 4/5.
    • Tampa's projected lineup carries a 20.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching across 2,192 PA.
    • Tampa's 20.6% opponent K rate is only moderate, not a premium strikeout matchup.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 8.24 K/9 over 172.7 regular-season innings; 26 strikeouts across his last five recorded starts.
    • Griffin struck out 7 in his latest 53-pitch playoff appearance and 19 across his last three starts.
    • His latest outing lasted just 2.67 innings and 53 pitches, creating genuine leash uncertainty.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Confirmed active starter; MLB.com lists Griffin for Game 1.
    • Last five recorded appearances produced 7, 7, 5, 4, and 3 strikeouts; 5.2 average is 49% above 3.5.
    • The most recent 7-K appearance was only 2.67 innings in relief, so starter workload is uncertain.
  3. Total runs under 6.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsParity Desk, ProphetX No Vig MLB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Tampa Bay's .2847 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching over 2,192 PA gives a -0.50-run ledger, capped at -0.40 for Partial coverage; Cleveland's .3111 versus righties gives 0.00.
    • Partial rather than Full: starters are confirmed and nine-man lineups are posted, but both current-season saber_is_complete flags are false despite 30/31 starts.
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Derived reference: Pinnacle quotes 7 at over +108 / under -122, devigging to 46.7% / 53.3%; no Pinnacle 6.5 quote.
    • Rays vs left-handers: .2847 xwOBA across 2,192 PA, a -0.50-run ledger capped at -0.40 for Partial coverage; Guardians vs right-handers: .3111 xwOBA across 4,728 PA, 0.00 ledger.
    • Both starters are confirmed and have 30-plus regular-season starts, but 2026 saber_is_complete is false, so this is Partial rather than Full coverage.
    Fair Value
      • Both listed starters are confirmed and have 30/31 regular-season starts, but saber_is_complete is false for both; this is Partial rather than Full coverage.
    • Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts3 models agree
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      3 modelsK’s, Bello +1
      Why 3 models like it
      K’s
      • Last five starts produced 35 Ks in 121 batters faced (28.9%); L3/L5 K/9 remain 8.68/8.81.
      • Self-derived workload is about 24 TBF, yielding roughly 5.9 expected Ks after the Guardians' contact adjustment.
      • Removing Rasmussen's 11-K outing leaves 24 Ks in 97 TBF (24.7%), closer to the 5.5 threshold.
      Bello
      • recent three starts: 24 strikeouts in 19.67 innings, an 11.0 K/9 stretch.
      • rolling workload is 6.56 IP/start and 14.78 pitches/IP; the 17.5 trigger is not met, so no decay-based under-K logic applies.
      • Rasmussen's rolling fastball velocity is -0.53 mph and spin is -101.8 rpm versus season baselines; P/IP is below the decay trigger, but the spin signal remains a small warning.
      Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
      • Confirmed active starter; MLB.com lists Rasmussen for Game 1.
      • Last five outings: 10, 11, 3, 4, 7 strikeouts; 7.0 average is 27% above 5.5.
      • Only 3 of the last 5 outings cleared 5.5; the sample is small.
    • Steven Kwan over 0.5 hitsFavorite2 models agree
      +48%Won

      Taken at −210 on BetMGM

      2 modelsPICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run, Picks with pink pro reader
      Why 2 models like it
      PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
      • Confirmed starter, batting first; lineup posted at 1:50 PM PDT and odds feed lists him active.
      • Hit in 4 of last 5, 7 of last 10, and 100 of 155 season games (64.5%).
      • H2H is unfavorable but small: 4 hits in 13 career plate appearances versus Rasmussen.
      Picks with pink pro reader
      • Kwan bats first and is confirmed active in the starting lineup.
      • Kwan owns a .301 average versus right-handed pitching over 447 2026 plate appearances.
      • Rasmussen has a .271 expected wOBA allowed and a 9.11 K/9 season rate.
    • Foster Griffin over 1.5 earned runs2 models agree
      +84%Won

      Taken at −119 on DraftKings

      2 modelsShawn’s Quant Pitcher ER Model, Starter Stress Test
      Why 2 models like it
      Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER Model
      • Model mean is 1.98 ER; Poisson P(2+ ER) is 58.9%.
      • Griffin’s 4.35 xERA exceeds his 3.60 ERA; FIP 3.96 and SIERA 3.88 support regression.
      • Tampa Bay’s .2847 split xwOBA and 18.6% strikeout rate versus lefties are run-suppressing.
      Starter Stress Test
      • 8.03 ERA and 2.11 WHIP over his last three starts versus 3.60 and 1.21 season marks.
      • Griffin allowed more than 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five starts.
      • Rays' season wRC+ is 103.9, below the 105 quality threshold; their last-30-day vs-lefty sample is only 254 PA.
    Show all 43 picks
    1. Tampa Bay Rays run line −1.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +130 on FanDuel

      2 modelsMLB Quant Edge, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      MLB Quant Edge
      • Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 3.21 xFIP, 26.0% K and 4.8% BB.
      • Griffin: 3.60 ERA versus 4.35 xERA and 3.76 xFIP; larger regression gap favors Tampa Bay.
      • Griffin averages 91.4 pitches and can still turn the regression indicators into a quality start.
      Long Way Home
      • Rasmussen: 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.11 K/9; Griffin: 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.24 K/9 in 2026 regular season.
      • Underlying gap remains: Rasmussen 3.06 xERA/.271 xwOBA-against versus Griffin 4.35 xERA/.320.
      • Most likely loss: Tampa Bay wins by exactly one run, which the +1.5/-1.5 market makes materially possible.
    2. Cleveland Guardians to win2 models agree
      +150%Won

      Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket

      2 modelsPolymarket MLB Hot Wallets, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
      • Live Polymarket.com moneyline contract: Cleveland is graded at 39.5c; the contract is accepting orders.
      Long Way Home
      • with one run allowed and two outs in the bottom 1st, my live Cleveland win estimate is 30%, above the service's 27.03¢ graded price.
      • Only 1-0 with most of the game remaining; Cleveland still has roughly eight innings to attack Tampa's starter and bullpen.
      • Most likely loss: Drew Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 9.11 K/9 suppress Cleveland while Tampa protects the early lead.
    3. Tampa Bay Rays F5 winnerHigh conviction
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fair F5 vector is TB 56.0%, CLE 27.0%, draw 17.0%; TB venue quote 52%/49% devigs to 51.5%, a 4.5p gap.
      • Rasmussen owns the sharper current profile: WHIP L5 0.85, ERA L5 1.42, xwOBA-against .271 versus Griffin's 1.76, 6.17, and .320.
      • TB's first three are xwOBA .347/.346/.363 against Griffin's left-handed start; the Rays' top-three profile is stronger than Cleveland's .329/.326/.342 versus right-handed Rasmussen.
      • The 56.0% fair estimate is an independent model because no sharp book prices F5 winner; the 4.5p gap is meaningful but not wide.
    4. Foster Griffin over 12.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on BetMGM

      MLB HunterV2Down 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 28 of Griffin's 31 regular-season starts reached at least 13 outs (90.3%).
      • He averaged 16.71 outs and 91.39 pitches per regular-season start.
      • BetMGM offers -110; sharp-reference pricing devigs to 53.4% before applying the independent estimate.
      • This is Griffin's first postseason start, so the manager's playoff leash is uncertain.
    5. Drew Rasmussen under 6.5 strikeoutsFavoriteHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 54% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 5.3 strikeouts and 74% for 6 or fewer, a 1.2-K gap to the 6.5 line.
      • Confirmed Cleveland lineup is 581 strikeouts in 3,327 plate appearances versus right-handers (17.5%).
      • Rasmussen owns a 26.0% 2026 regular-season K rate; his last five starts were 35 K in 121 batters faced.
      • Rasmussen has been off a regular-season start for 20 days; postseason usage and an early hook remain uncertain.
    6. Brayan Rocchio HRR YES 0.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Quiet BatDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • DK same-event devigged references: hit 51.5%, runs 27.1%, RBI 19.9%; 15% union haircut gives derived fair 60.9%.
      • Rocchio's current playoff sample is only 18 PA (.1429 AVG), making the 406-PA right-handed split noisy in a one-game market.
    7. Tampa Bay Rays win the 9th inningLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Innings 6-8 price Tampa Bay at 20c/19c/18c; the 9th's 8c is the board's sharpest late-inning discontinuity.
      • Matchup mechanism: Rays used 0 bullpen pitches and 0 innings in three days; Cleveland used 56 pitches, 3.33 innings and 3 arms.
      • The rested Tampa Bay late-game run-prevention state supports correcting the 9th toward Tampa Bay rather than Cleveland.
      • The draw is the modal 9th-inning outcome at 71c; a scoreless or tied frame loses.
    8. Drew Rasmussen over 17.5 outs recorded
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on BetMGM

      MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected 19.0 outs and 94 pitches: 64% clear probability, 1.5 outs above the posted 17.5 line.
      • Rasmussen averaged 20.2 outs and 96 pitches over his last five starts; he cleared 17.5 in four.
      • 2026 distribution: 7(1), 11(1), 12(1), 15(8), 16(1), 18(9), 20(1), 21(8), 24(1).
      • Tampa Bay starters averaged only 15.04 outs; just 58 of 165 team starts reached 18, and its bullpen is fully rested.
    9. Tampa Bay Rays spread −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rays run differential +86 versus Cleveland +11; season batting .2575/.4008 versus .2381/.3801.
      • Bullpen edge: Tampa Bay 0.0 IP/0 pitches in one and three days; Cleveland 3.33 IP/56 pitches in three days.
      • Most likely loss: Cleveland's contact approach turns Griffin's favorable-looking expected metrics into a low-scoring one-run game.
    10. Junior Caminero 1+ home runsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7.5% barrel rate, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 48.6% pull rate; right-handed matchup versus lefty Foster Griffin.
      • Griffin allows a 29.6% fly-ball rate and 13.1% HR/FB; the matchup supplies air-ball conversion.
      • Tropicana's 111 HR park factor adds lift; the dome removes wind noise but not the park baseline.
      • One-game home-run variance is extreme; roughly four plate appearances can erase a real matchup edge.
    11. 3-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +46900

      Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Buffalo -110: Florida is without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand; its season scoring is only 1.8 goals per game.
      • Dodgers -124: Yoshinobu Yamamoto brings a 2.53 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 22 quality starts against Logan Henderson's 18 starts and 10.07 K/9.
      • Rays -158: Drew Rasmussen's 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP face Foster Griffin's 4.35 expected ERA; Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown zero innings in three days.
      • Buffalo is only 2-3 and has allowed 3.8 goals per game; Florida's injuries may be overstated by a five-game sample.
    12. Foster Griffin under 1.5 walks allowedFavorite
      +53%Won

      Taken at −190 on ESPN BET

      Free PassNew model
    13. Tampa Bay Rays F5 spread −1.5
      +186%Won

      Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening FrameUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen's L5 WHIP/ERA are 0.85/1.42 versus Griffin's 1.76/6.17; both workload gates pass, though Griffin's ~4.67 IP/start keeps this Tier 2.
      • TB's posted top three average .352 xwOBA (Díaz/Aranda/Caminero) versus CLE's .332 (Kwan/Ramírez/DeLauter), supporting an early Rays margin.
      • A 40.0% margin-cover estimate is model-based, not a sharp F5 reference; the edge is only 5.35 points after devigging.
    14. Foster Griffin under 3.5 strikeouts
      +90%Won

      Taken at −111 on FanDuel

      K-Zone FadeUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Griffin averaged 76 pitches over his last three starts (228 total), below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
      • FanDuel's -111 is the best live US price; DraftKings is -125 and BetMGM is -110.
      • Griffin's 11.68 K/9 over his last three starts is above his 8.24 season mark, so recent form cuts against the under.
    15. Drew Rasmussen 5+ strikeouts NO
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

      Mr. StrikeoutsUp 64% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six of nine projected Guardians are below 20% strikeouts in their 2026 righty split; only Bailey and Adell clear 25%.
      • Rasmussen's L3 workload is 5.88 IP and 94 pitches per start, but the matchup-adjusted estimate is near 5.2 Ks, making under five live at a 35¢ cost.
      • His L3 baseline still projects roughly 5.2-5.7 Ks, so one additional strikeout loses the contract.
    16. Tampa Bay Rays under 3.5 team runs
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Foster Griffin is left-handed; Tampa Bay's season split versus LHP is .2847 xwOBA, versus .3133 versus RHP.
      • Tampa Bay's 30-day versus-LHP xwOBA is .2914; the posted lineup's bottom three average .2684 xwOBA versus .3521 for its top three.
      • Griffin's .320 season xwOBA allowed and 4.35 xERA are exploitable; the under loses with four Tampa runs.
    17. Drew Rasmussen over 17.5 pitching outs
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on BetMGM

      Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5 mean 20.2 outs, 4/5 over; L10 mean 18.8, 7/10 over 17.5.
      • Rasmussen's latest postseason start reached 24 outs; 2026 TTO-3 xwOBA (.242) is below TTO-1 (.252).
      • Cleveland strikes out 20.6% and whiffs 21.9% versus right-handers; Rasmussen is confirmed with no reported cap or rehab limit.
      • Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 0 pitches over the last three days, creating a fresh-hook alternative if trouble starts.
    18. Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays first-five total under 3.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Moneyline anchor implies Tampa Bay wins about 60%; full-game total ladder centers near 6.5, 7 runs.
      • Fitted run process puts the starter-heavy first five near 3.0 runs; under 3.5 estimates roughly 58%.
      • Starters were verified live: Drew Rasmussen and Foster Griffin; first-five pricing should be below a flat half-game split.
      • The first-five ladder itself prices over 3.5 at 52¢, so the disagreement is meaningful but not enormous.
    19. Over 6.5 runs
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 81% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both starters clear the workload gate: Rasmussen averaged 95.8 pitches and Griffin exactly 80.0 over their last four starts.
      • Griffin's 4.35 xERA and 1.20 HR/9 create the main over pathway; Cleveland's bullpen has logged 56 pitches over 3.33 innings in three days.
      • Tropicana's 0.96 run factor is offset by its 1.11 HR factor; the posted lineups are confirmed and the model fair total is approximately 7.1.
      • Rasmussen owns a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, giving Tampa a credible low-scoring anchor.
    20. INTERNAL COHERENCE
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX self-reference: CLE team-total Under 2.5 (+110) and TB Under 3.5 (-102) point to six or fewer combined runs.
      • ProphetX also posts 1st-5th total Under 3.5 at -101, consistent with a capped early scoring environment.
      • Tampa's lineup versus left-handers is .2847 xwOBA; Tropicana Field is a 96 run-factor dome with no wind.
      • Griffin's 4.35 xERA and Cleveland's 56 bullpen pitches over three days can create the eighth run.
    21. Jonny DeLuca over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +52%Won

      Taken at −193 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • DeLuca recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 1.10 hits; his last-five hit rate was 80%.
      • His full-season hit rate is 57.4%, clearing the preferred 55% baseline, with 93 hits in 162 games.
      • He is confirmed sixth in Cleveland's posted lineup, preserving a stable starting role and expected plate appearances.
      • The season baseline is only 57.4%, so the recent 80% stretch may be short-term overperformance.
    22. Tampa Bay Rays spread −2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Backing Tampa Bay Rays -2.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so this is not a three-measure signal.
    23. Game total under 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +100 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 6.2, fair total line 6.0, under 6.5 win probability 58%, push probability 0%; model run at 6:27 PM CDT.
      • Rasmussen allows a .271 xwOBA with 2.82 FIP; his confirmed availability and 9.11 K/9 suppress Cleveland's contact quality.
      • Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup owns only a .2847 xwOBA and .353 SLG versus left-handed pitching; Griffin's matchup is favorable despite his higher baseline ERA.
      • Griffin's 4.35 xERA and 1.21 season WHIP leave room for Tampa's Caminero, Aranda, and Mesa to create early offense.
    24. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Regular-season run marginals independently tie 10.1%; starter and park adjustments lift the low-scoring tie estimate.
      • Projected means are approximately 2.9 Cleveland and 3.3 Tampa Bay, a tight low-total distribution without a large margin.
      • Rasmussen xERA is 3.06; Tampa Bay versus lefties has .2847 xwOBA; Tropicana run factor is 96.
      • Postseason run-distribution samples are thin: Cleveland has five games and Tampa Bay three.
    25. Drew Rasmussen 18+ recorded outs
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen averaged 19.0 outs and 95.2 pitches across his last five regular-season starts.
      • His latest verified playoff outing was 24 outs on 101 pitches, with 9 days since that start.
      • No IL status or announced pitch cap was found; his 2026 regular-season average was 5.73 innings per start.
      • Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 0.0 innings in three days, giving the manager an easy early-pull option.
    26. Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays over 7.5 total runs
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen and Griffin are confirmed starters; their 2026 ERAs are 2.67 and 3.60, while both lineups have paths to late-run variance.
      • Most likely loss: the confirmed starters suppress scoring and the game finishes seven runs or fewer.
    27. Junior Caminero 2+ total bases
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Junior posts a .343 hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, .440 L14 slugging mark, and bats third.
      • Griffin's 29.6% fly-ball rate allowed and Tropicana's 111 HR factor support extra-base paths beyond homers.
      • Pinnacle Over 1.5 at +122 is a near-43% sharp reference; Polymarket US is marginally cheaper.
      • Two bases can fail through walks and outs even when contact quality is favorable.
    28. Foster Griffin 7 or more strikeoutsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 5.2 implied innings; P(5+) 38%, P(6+) 25%, P(7+) 15%.
      • Foster’s 2026 season produced 8 seven-strikeout starts in 31; current ladder prices 7+ at 9%.
      • Foster averaged 4.67 innings across his last five starts and has 18 days since his last start.
    29. First inning over 0.5 runs
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • starters' 2026 first-inning run-allowed rates are 9/31 and 10/32; independent baseline 51.2%.
      • Confirmed top threes: Kwan/Ramírez/DeLauter and Díaz/Aranda/Caminero; relevant-hand xwOBA averages .337 and .357.
      • Full-game 6.5 is not a valid RFI reference: different innings and participants; it is excluded.
      • No Pinnacle or sharp RFI line exists; the derived 51.2% baseline is not a sharp check.
    30. Drew Rasmussen over 17.5 outs
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on BetMGM

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8 of Rasmussen's last 11 starts reached at least 18 outs.
      • His last two outings went 8.0 and 6.67 innings, with 101 and 114 pitches.
      • 2026 regular-season baseline: 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.11 K/9 over 172 innings.
      • 17.5 outs requires 5.2 innings; three of his last 11 starts finished below that mark.
    31. Drew Rasmussen under 4 strikeoutsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Equivalent sportsbook YES prices were 4+ DK -585, FD -770, MGM -450, Fanatics -600; 5+ DK -258, FD -295, MGM -210, BetRivers -345, Fanatics -250; 6+ DK -124, FD -115, MGM -105, BetRivers -165, Fanatics -120.
      • Season K/9 is 9.11; L3/L5 are 8.68/8.81, with last-five Ks 10, 11, 3, 4, 7 and last-ten average 6.2.
    32. Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays 2nd-inning tie
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rays moneyline anchor is 84¢; full-game over 6.5 is 67.5¢ after the live 2-0 start.
      • Those anchors fit a live scoring picture centered near nine total runs, not a 63% tied inning.
      • Historical MLB sample: 7,289 games averaged 8.97 runs; 68.4% reached seven-plus runs.
      • Per-inning ties remain the modal outcome in low-scoring baseball; the 63¢ tie may be correctly calibrated.
    33. Cleveland Guardians under 4.5 team runsFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US anchors: Tampa Bay win 60.5¢ and full-game over 6.5 at 52¢.
      • Those anchors fit a low-scoring picture near 6.7 total runs, split roughly 3.8 Rays / 2.9 Guardians.
      • 2026 playoff scoring: 26 games, 6.77 mean, 7 median, and only 15.4% reaching 10+ runs.
      • Moneyline plus total under-identifies the team-run split; the Cleveland tail is estimated, not directly observed.
    34. Cleveland Guardians +1.5
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

      Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
      Why it likes it
      • mooseborzoii holds the Cleveland outcome on Tampa Bay's -1.5 spread at 58.5c current value; the position was open at 4:26 PM PDT.
      • Live Polymarket.com spread contract: Cleveland +1.5 is graded at 58.5c and is accepting orders.
    35. Cleveland Guardians +1.5 first-five spreadFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rasmussen is the stronger starter, but Cleveland’s +1.5 protects against a one-run F5 deficit.
      • Rasmussen: 3.06 xERA, 0.91 WHIP and 9.11 regular-season K/9; Griffin: 4.35 xERA and 1.21 WHIP.
      • Confirmed top-five Cleveland bats versus right-handers combine contact and power: Kwan .301 AVG, DeLauter .366 xwOBA, Lowe .350 xwOBA.
      • Rasmussen’s starter edge can produce a multi-run early deficit despite the +1.5 cushion.
    36. Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays first-five total under 5.5Favorite
      +35%Won

      Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • confirmed, non-stale starters are Foster Griffin and Drew Rasmussen.
      • Rasmussen carries a 3.06 xERA and 0.91 WHIP; Griffin's 4.35 xERA still supports a moderate, not explosive, baseline.
      • Top-five opposing-lineup xwOBA is .333 for Cleveland versus RHP and .344 for Tampa Bay versus LHP.
      • Griffin's last-five ERA is 6.17, and Tampa Bay's top five have a .344 xwOBA versus left-handers.
    37. under 7 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both confirmed starters carry solid run-prevention indicators: Drew Rasmussen 3.21 xFIP and Foster Griffin 3.76 xFIP.
      • Pinnacle's captured main total is 6.5; ProphetX offers an extra half-run at 7, creating push protection.
      • Full lineups were posted at 4:00 PM PDT; Tampa Bay vs LHP is .2847 xwOBA and Cleveland vs RHP is .3111.
      • Nestor Ceja's umpire profile shows an 8.97 average total, a meaningful over-side warning.

    Questions

    Who won Guardians vs. Rays?

    The Guardians won 7-3 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.

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