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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Brewers103-59
6–2Final
Dodgers100-62
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL1000003116
LAD0000020002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 7.5 runs +102

Why Alex's Sharp Line Scanner likes it: Dodgers post .339 xwOBA and .416 SLG versus right-handed pitching; their confirmed lineup is intact through Betts, Freeman, Hernandez and Tucker.

Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 15% return this season · 99 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 21-45 on this game · −37% return

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers to win12 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    12 modelsFade the Arm, Parity Desk +10
    Why 12 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • Gasser's season xERA is 4.27 and xFIP 4.34 versus a 3.87 ERA; the underlying profile is worse than the headline results.
    • Visible TTO decay: Gasser's allowed xwOBA rises from .2768 in TTO1 to .3457 in TTO3 and .336 in TTO4.
    • Most likely loss: Gasser's recent form holds; his last-five ERA is 1.67 with an 8.0 K/9, so the season-level gap may overstate today's weakness.
    Parity Desk
      • Snell's current postseason sample is only one start; a short outing can expose the Dodgers bullpen and erase the pitching edge.
      Drift
      • Dodgers carry 110.5 wRC+ versus Milwaukee's 107.8; park runs factor is 0.98.
      • Milwaukee's +214 run differential and .6328 pythagorean rate exceed Los Angeles at +201 and .6292.
      Patchel Sage
      • Los Angeles is at .3301 xwOBA versus LHP; its posted top five are .3590, .3406, .3832, .3280 and .3941, with no platoon black hole.
      • Milwaukee's .3095 xwOBA versus LHP triggers the -0.50 run penalty against its projection; both clubs have zero top-two bullpen back-to-back flags.
      • Snell has only 42.67 regular-season innings in 2026 and 3.67 playoff innings, creating workload and third-time-through uncertainty.
    • Los Angeles Dodgers −1.54 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

      4 modelsFade the Arm, Run and a Half +2
      Why 4 models like it
      Fade the Arm
      • Gasser's 2026 xFIP is 4.34 and xERA 4.27 versus a 3.87 ERA, signaling weaker underlying run prevention.
      • TTO decay is pronounced: Gasser's allowed xwOBA rises from .1814 in TTO1 to .2981 in TTO2, .3457 in TTO3, and .3360 in TTO4.
      • Most likely loss: Gasser's recent ERA is 1.00 over his last three starts and 1.67 over his last five, so the TTO weakness may not appear tonight.
      Run and a Half
      • Venue moneyline is 62% Dodgers and -2.5 is 32%; the -1.5 rung is the unusually cheap middle tail.
      • Blake Snell: 1.90 ERA, .2326 xwOBA allowed, 11.6 K/9; Robert Gasser: 4.27 xERA and .317 xwOBA allowed.
      • A one-run Dodgers win loses; one-run margins were 27.5% of 2026 completed games.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Snell's 3.06 xFIP is 1.28 lower than Gasser's 4.34, favoring Los Angeles by the pitching lens.
      • Dodgers' .3301 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching exceeds Milwaukee's .3095 against lefties.
      • Milwaukee is 4-1 in its last five versus Los Angeles at 2-3, and won the October 12 meeting 7-4.
      MLB Quant Edge
      • Dodgers vs lefties: .414 SLG and .330 xwOBA versus Milwaukee's .386 and .309.
      • Gasser's 3.87 ERA trails his 4.34 xFIP and 4.14 SIERA; Snell still owns a 31.8% K rate.
      • Snell's 3.06 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA are materially above his 1.90 ERA, creating regression risk.
    • Under 7.5 total runs4 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −120 on FanDuel

      4 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Drift +2
      Why 4 models like it
      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
      • Snell: 1.90 ERA, 11.60 K/9, .233 expected wOBA allowed; last-five ERA 1.25.
      • Milwaukee vs left-handed pitching: .246 AVG, .385 SLG, .3095 xwOBA, 21.6% strikeout rate.
      • Gasser's 4.27 xERA and .317 xwOBA allowed leave a real path for Dodgers scoring.
      Drift
      • Blake Snell: 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.60 K9 in 2026 regular season.
      • Robert Gasser's 4.27 xERA and 4.14 SIERA temper the Dodgers' offensive advantage.
      • Gasser's 4.27 xERA and .317 xwOBA allowed leave Los Angeles a route to early runs.
      cash-first mlb under hunter
      • Fair total 6.8-6.9 runs versus the posted 7.5.
      • Blake Snell: 1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9, .233 expected wOBA allowed; Dodgers bullpen has multiple sub-3.6 FIP arms.
      • The Dodgers' confirmed lineup has six regular-season wRC+ marks above 109, including Ohtani at 139.
      high-confidence main markets
      • Snell: 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.60 K/9; Gasser: 3.87 ERA and 4.27 expected ERA.
      • Against left-handed pitching, both lineups project modestly: Dodgers .330 xwOBA, Brewers .3095 xwOBA.
      • Dodgers post a .414 SLG against lefties, and the park's 110 home-run factor raises solo-homer risk.
    • Robert Gasser over 3.5 strikeouts4 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +114 on FanDuel

      4 modelsK’s, MLB HunterV2 +2
      Why 4 models like it
      K’s
      • 25 strikeouts in his last five regular-season starts across 27 innings; 8.33 K/9.
      • Workload projects about 5.0-5.4 innings and 22-24 batters faced; no IL or rehab flag.
      • Gasser's first postseason start lasted four innings and 56 pitches, creating real playoff-hook uncertainty.
      MLB HunterV2
      • Adjusted Poisson model gives 60.0% over probability; conservative estimate remains 56.0%.
      • Gasser owns an 8.48 K/9 regular-season baseline and 24 strikeouts across his last 24.7 innings.
      • Gasser averaged only 4.93 innings across his five latest starts, creating early-hook risk.
      PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home run
      • Gasser exceeded 3.5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts, 8 of 10, and 16 of 20 this season.
      • His season strikeout rate is 22.1% with an 8.48 K/9 baseline; the Dodgers lineup has a confirmed 20.5% K rate.
      • Gasser's season contact quality is mixed: .317 xwOBA and 20.5% hard-hit allowed.
      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
      • 22.1% season K rate versus a confirmed Dodgers lineup at 20.5%.
      • Recent five starts: 24 strikeouts in 103 batters faced; expected workload is about 20 batters.
      • Dodgers' low 20.5% lineup K rate limits upside, especially with Betts, Freeman, and Rojas.
    • Game total under 7.53 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      3 modelsSelective Pressure, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
      Why 3 models like it
      Selective Pressure
      • Blake Snell enters with a 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11.6 K/9; his 0.23 xwOBA-against profile supports run suppression.
      • The 7.5 total is a low number; one crooked inning or extra innings can defeat the under.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • PWP Composite Grade 71/100 (B); my 7.0-run projection is 6.7% below the 7.5 line.
      • Last-10 game totals stayed under 7.5 in 8/10 Dodgers games and 7/10 Brewers games.
      • Season under rates are only 82/168 for Los Angeles and 85/168 for Milwaukee, below the 55% preference.
      House Rules
      • Under 7.5 wins on exactly 7; adjacent under 7 pushes on exactly 7 and otherwise wins only through 6.
      • Totals of 8 or more lose; the comparison uses ProphetX's own adjacent quotes, not an independent sharp reference.
    • Game total over 7.5 runs2 models agree
      +102%Won

      Taken at +102 on DraftKings

      2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
      Why 2 models like it
      Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
      • Dodgers post .339 xwOBA and .416 SLG versus right-handed pitching; their confirmed lineup is intact through Betts, Freeman, Hernandez and Tucker.
      • Dodgers relievers have logged 139 pitches over the last three days, creating late-inning over potential.
      • Pinnacle's sharp move from 7.5 to 7, with 19 cents toward the under, is a direct warning against the over.
      Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.3 projected total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 61%; push probability 0%; release 6:11 PM CDT.
      • Dodgers lineup carries a .330 team xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Gasser allows .317 xwOBA overall.
      • Snell allows only a .233 xwOBA with a 11.6 K/9 regular-season profile; a deep start can suppress the Dodgers' share of scoring.
    Show all 40 picks
    1. Blake Snell under 6 strikeouts2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

      2 modelsShawn's K-Floor Staircase, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
      Why 2 models like it
      Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
      • Projection: 4.8 Ks; model fair probability for NO is 62% (fair price 62¢) versus a live 36¢ cost.
      • Snell's last five starts produced 5, 3, 1, 8, and 7 strikeouts; the latest was only 3 2/3 innings on 90 pitches.
      • Snell owns an 11.6 K/9 season mark and three 2026 pitches above 42% whiff, so an efficient outing can clear six.
      Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
      • Last five listed starts produced 5, 3, 1, 8, and 7 Ks: 4.8 per start, 20% below the 6-K line.
      • Snell is confirmed active and listed to start; the posted PrizePicks prop is live at -137.
      • Snell's 11.6 season K/9 can overwhelm a low-K opponent if he reaches 90-plus pitches.
    2. Blake Snell under 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −136 on FanDuel

      2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
      Why 2 models like it
      Señor Strikeouts
      • His last-three regular-season K/9 is 10.12, while his five-start mark is 12.05.
      • The confirmed Brewers lineup is only 23.6% strikeouts in the playoffs; seven Ks requires both workload and efficiency.
      • Snell's swing-and-miss stuff can overpower a contact-oriented lineup and produce seven-plus Ks.
      Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
      • Mark Wegner starter fit is negative: -0.01 called-strike delta and -2.75 fit z-score.
      • Snell owns an 11.60 season K/9 and 12.05 K/9 over his last five starts, creating real upside.
    3. Over 7.5 total runs2 models agree
      +102%Won

      Taken at +102 on DraftKings

      2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
      Why 2 models like it
      Snapp Decision of the Day
      • Dodgers carry a .3301 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Brewers are .3095 versus lefties.
      • Gasser's season expected wOBA allowed is .317, while Dodger Stadium's home-run factor is 110.
      • Blake Snell owns a 1.90 regular-season ERA and .2707 expected wOBA allowed in the current snapshot.
      Number Earned
      • 54.5% model win probability; fair price approximately -120 versus DraftKings +102.
      • Dodgers post .3301 xwOBA and .4144 SLG versus lefties; Brewers post .3095 and .3855.
      • Blake Snell owns a 1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and .2326 xwOBA allowed in the current-season profile.
    4. Milwaukee Brewers +0.5 first-five spread
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on FanDuel

      Familiar FaceUp 14% over 104 picks
      Why it likes it
      • FanDuel posts Milwaukee +0.5 at -106 while Los Angeles is the first-five -0.5 favorite.
      • The rule's TTOP2/TTOP3 divergence targets Milwaukee avoiding a first-five loss in this matchup.
      • The rule is a narrow historical signal, not a full run-prevention model; one early homer can decide five innings.
    5. YRFI
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

      Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 8% over 127 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed top four: Chourio/Turang/Contreras/Vaughn and Betts/Freeman/Hernández/Tucker.
      • Gasser's sinker/cutter/changeup carry 61.6% usage and yielded .374/.385/.382 xwOBA against.
      • Polymarket prices the run-scored contract at 45.5¢, about 5.9 points below my 51.4% estimate.
      • First-inning samples are thin: Snell 10 games/42 PA and Gasser 22 games/92 PA.
    6. Robert Gasser over 11.5 outs recorded
      +74%Won

      Taken at −136 on FanDuel

      MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected 15.5 outs, four outs above the posted 11.5 line.
      • Gasser cleared 11.5 in all six latest starts; latest playoff outing reached 12 outs.
      • Projected 87 pitches; recent five-start average was 88.4 pitches and 16.2 outs.
      • His latest playoff start ended after exactly 4.0 innings and 56 pitches, making the line-specific margin fragile.
    7. Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 618 regular-season PA: .237 ISO, 8.5% barrel rate, 30.4% hard-hit rate, and 85.3 mph average exit velocity.
      • Gasser's 27.3% fly-ball-allowed rate limits the matchup's air-ball upside despite his HR/FB rate.
    8. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +18500

      Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Colorado has scored 4.83 goals per game through six regular-season games versus Dallas at 2.17, with a 23-15 season goal differential edge.
      • Blake Snell's 1.90 ERA and 11.60 K/9 give the Dodgers a clear probable-starter edge over Robert Gasser's 3.87 ERA and 8.48 K/9.
      • ProphetX re-quoted this exact two-leg slip at +186, with $213 maximum stake at the best offer.
      • Colorado played Dallas yesterday, creating back-to-back fatigue and reducing the home-ice edge.
    9. Shohei Ohtani under 1.5 total bases
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

      ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US NO at 63¢ is the exact Ohtani 2+ total-bases contract.
      • Ohtani bats sixth against lefty Robert Gasser; the left-on-left matchup reduces his power path.
      • Ohtani’s last five regular-season lines were 1, 1, 0, 3, 1 total bases: under 1.5 in four of five.
      • Ohtani owns a .512 season slugging percentage and can clear this with one extra-base hit.
    10. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to winFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −190 on FanDuel

      The Core 6 Independent SyndicateUp 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Gasser allows a .317 xwOBA with 4.27 xERA; Snell allows a .2326 xwOBA.
      • Dodgers own a .3301 xwOBA versus left-handers versus Milwaukee's .3095 versus left-handers.
      • Confirmed lineups were posted at 4:20 PM: Dodgers' top six include Betts, Freeman, Hernández, Tucker, Pages and Ohtani.
      • Gasser's regular-season last-five ERA was 1.67, narrowing the recent-form gap despite the larger expected-performance gap.
    11. Robert Gasser 4 or more strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected IP mass: <4 10%, 4, 4.9 25%, 5, 5.9 35%, 6, 6.9 20%, 7+ 10%.
      • Projected K mass: 0, 3 42%, exactly 4 18%, exactly 5 16%, exactly 6 12%, 7+ 12%.
      • Confirmed Dodgers lineup supplied 1,537 PA versus left-handers; weighted K rate is 18.9%.
      • Fresh Dodgers bullpen: 8.33 IP and 139 pitches over three days; no back-to-back arms, shortening the innings tail.
    12. First inning no runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 39% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both announced lineups face left-handed starters; MIL's team xwOBA vs LHP is .3095 and LAD's is .3301.
      • Dodger Stadium is near-neutral for runs (98) with only a 1-mph wind; HR factor 110 is a smaller counterweight.
      • Full-game 7.5 is NOT a valid RFI reference: it includes later innings, middle/bottom hitters, starter fatigue, and bullpen frames.
      • Snell's first-inning sample is only 10 games and 42 PA, so the suppression estimate is noisy.
    13. Robert Gasser under 3 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

      Mr. StrikeoutsUp 64% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • His top 2026 pitch whiff rate is only 29.3%; no 15%-usage pitch reaches the 35% weapon gate.
      • Gasser still recorded 3 Ks in his latest four-inning outing, so one extra punchout loses.
    14. Los Angeles Dodgers under 3.5 runs scored
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Dodgers lineup has four left/switch hitters versus LHP Robert Gasser, but its versus-left xwOBA is .330 and SLG .414.
      • Gasser's current xwOBA-against is .317, with 1.67 ERA and .852 WHIP across the latest five-start window.
      • Dodger Stadium park-factor runs is 98; clear 84°F weather and 1-mph wind add no scoring boost.
      • Milwaukee's bullpen logged 9.67 innings and 125 pitches over three days; late-inning fatigue can create Dodger runs.
    15. Milwaukee Brewers under 7.5 total runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −120 on FanDuel

      BelloUp 106% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • structural mismatch: two confirmed left-handed starters, with Snell at 1.90 ERA/1.10 WHIP and Gasser at 3.87 ERA/1.19 WHIP.
      • Snell's rolling three-start workload is 18.46 pitches/IP; Gasser's is 15.72, while both arms have stable recent stuff rather than verified decay.
      • velocity/spin deltas versus season baseline: Snell +0.46 mph/-3 rpm; Gasser +0.47 mph/-60 rpm, the >17.5 P/IP decay trigger is suppressed.
      • Dodgers' last ten average 4.1 runs and Brewers' 3.4, so this is not a Ghost Offense gate; competent offenses can beat a low total.
    16. Blake Snell under 1.5 earned runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −150 on BetMGM

      PICKS WITH PINK (MLB) player prop & home runUp 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snell cleared the under in 5 of his last 5 starts, 8 of 9 this season.
      • His season ERA is 1.90 with 1.72 FIP, 0.23 xwOBA allowed, and 12.5% hard-hit allowed.
      • Milwaukee's opposing lineup profile is modest at .3095 xwOBA; Snell's recent five-start ERA is 1.25.
      • Only nine regular-season starts make Snell's season hit-rate sample thin.
    17. Blake Snell over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +27%Won

      Taken at −375 on BetMGM

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snell cleared 4.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%), meeting the hard recent-hit gate.
      • Snell owns an 11.60 season K/9, and BetMGM's -375 is inside the brief's extreme-chalk price band.
      • The recent sample is exactly 8-for-10; two non-covering starts show meaningful variance.
    18. Total runs under 7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX No Vig MLBDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Milwaukee vs left-handers has .3095 xwOBA over 1,965 PA: -0.50 runs, capped at -0.40 Partial; Los Angeles vs lefties is .3301 over 2,074 PA: no debit. No bullpen-b2b or cluster adjustment.
      • Snell and Gasser are confirmed with 9 and 20 regular-season GS; both profiles are saber-incomplete, while lineups are 9/9 and both team splits exceed 300 PA, making this Partial coverage.
      • Most likely loss: 8 or more runs, especially if the Dodgers' .3301 xwOBA versus lefties overwhelms the Brewers debit or a bullpen inning breaks open.
    19. Milwaukee Brewers to win
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket

      Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Live 4:19 PM PDT: alwaysfade holds Brewers ML after a 9-0, 100% MLB sample.
    20. Robert Gasser over 1.5 earned runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model mean 2.25 ER: 5.1 expected IP × approximately 3.97 adjusted ER/9.
      • Dodgers post a .3301 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Gasser's 2026 xERA/xFIP are 4.27/4.34.
      • Full lineup is posted; Gasser is active, rested seven days, and has no recorded pitch-limit or IL gate.
      • Gasser's 2026 regular-season ERA was 3.87, while his last-five ERA was 1.67 across 27 innings.
    21. William Contreras over 0.5 hits
      +56%Won

      Taken at −179 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 70% hit rate across his last 10 2026 appearances.
      • Contreras owns a .301 average versus left-handed pitching in the current split sample.
      • Robert Gasser's 3.87 ERA and 8.48 K/9 profile leave more contact room than the opposing starter.
      • He has three hitless games in the last 10, so the recent rate is not dominant.
    22. Mookie Betts under 1.5 total bases
      +63%Won

      Taken at −160 on BetMGM

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 70% under 1.5 TB across his last 10 2026 appearances.
      • Blake Snell brings a 1.90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11.60 K/9 into the start.
      • BetMGM -160 implies 61.5%; my model estimates 69.0%, a 7.5-point margin.
      • Betts' leadoff role creates a likely four-to-five plate-appearance path to an extra-base hit.
    23. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread +1.5
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed starters: Blake Snell (1.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9) and Robert Gasser (3.87 ERA, 8.48 K/9); both probable flags are fresh.
      • Posted top of Milwaukee's lineup is productive against lefties: Chourio .321/.564, Vaughn .336/.516, and Contreras .263/.421 in 2026.
      • Dodger Stadium's 98 run-factor, clear weather, and 1-mph wind support a close early game; bullpens do not enter this read.
      • Snell is the best starter in the matchup, and a strikeout-heavy first turn could create a multi-run Dodgers lead.
    24. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    25. Robert Gasser over 11.5 recorded outs
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • FanDuel's same-rung over 11.5 was -136; devigged fair probability was 53.5%, but this is not a sharp reference.
      • Gasser's 2026 regular-season profile shows 86.75 pitches and 5.2 innings per start; his regular-season L5 was 442 pitches over 27 innings.
      • His five latest recorded starts were 4.0, 6.0, 7.0, 5.0, and 4.67 innings; every one reached at least 12 outs.
      • No announced pitch-cap or manager workload plan was found; postseason leverage can still create an early hook.
    26. Game total over 7.5
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    27. Blake Snell over 7.5 strikeouts
      +210%Won

      Taken at +210 on BetMGM

      K’sDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Recent fastball velocity reached 97.00 mph versus a 96.13 season baseline, so the recency override finds no stuff decline.
      • Removing the one-inning start leaves four regular-season starts averaging seven strikeouts, preserving the tail signal.
      • Model projects about 6.5 Ks and 36% for 8+ versus BetMGM +210, requiring only 32.3%.
      • Snell cleared 7.5 in only two of his last five regular-season starts; his current postseason start produced five.
    28. Robert Gasser over 1.5 strikeoutsFavorite
      +18%Won

      Taken at 85¢ on Kalshi

      High LimboUp 7% over 29 picks
      Why it likes it
      • L10 starts: 3, 9, 2, 5, 5, 4, 4, 7, 3, 6; median 4.5, minimum 2, trailing max 9; 10/10 cleared 1.5.
      • Low Hurdle qualifies: 1.5 is 3.0 Ks below the median and 0.5 below the minimum; headroom is 0.5 K.
      • Latest fastball was 93.38 mph/2,213 rpm versus season 92.89/2,232; no velocity drop over 1.0 mph or spin drop over 100 rpm.
      • or 1-K outing loses; lower-tail headroom is only 0.5 K.
    29. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 first-five spread
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Anchor fit: Dodgers win about 62%; full-game total is 7.5, implying a lower-scoring margin distribution.
      • Historical 2024-26 MLB finals: 8.86 average runs and 8-run median; this board's 7.5 anchor compresses runaway outcomes.
      • Fitted first-five environment is roughly 3.5-4.0 runs, making one-run margins common and Brewers +1.5 approximately 66-68%.
      • An early multi-run inning can defeat the +1.5 despite the low total anchor.
    30. Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers over 0.5 ninth-inning runs
      +194%Won

      Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The fitted total is about 7.9 runs: 119 recent playoff games averaged 7.90, with a 7-run median and 13-run 90th percentile.
      • That implies roughly 0.88 runs per inning before the ninth-inning adjustment; my late-inning estimate still gives a 47% chance of at least one ninth-inning run.
      • The ninth can be suppressed by a Dodgers lead and an unplayed bottom half, reducing its run opportunity.
    31. Game first-five total under 3.5
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snell's regular-season 1.90 ERA and 35.7% CSW profile suppress early scoring; Gasser's 2026 first-inning batting average against is .217.
      • Both posted lineups are confirmed, but the park is slightly run-suppressing at 98 and the weather is calm, limiting a wind-driven over case.
      • The full-game 7.5 total is coherent with a roughly three-run first five plus later-inning scoring; it does not require an unusually quiet opening.
      • Milwaukee's left-handed lineup has real damage potential against Snell, including Chourio's .321/.564 and Vaughn's .336/.516 versus lefties.
    32. Total Runs Under 7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Gasser's 4.27 xERA is the weak link, but Milwaukee and Los Angeles carry only .3095/.3301 xwOBA versus lefties.
      • Both bullpens had zero pitches yesterday; three-day workloads are moderate at 125 Brewers and 139 Dodgers pitches.
      • Gasser's 4.27 xERA and Dodgers' .3301 xwOBA versus lefties create the clearest path to an early crooked inning.
    33. Game goes to extra inningsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • MIL and LAD posted .3095/.3301 xwOBA versus lefties; the matchup is competitive but run production is not explosive.
      • Dodger Stadium run factor is 98, left-handed hitter factor 90, and wind is only 1 mph under clear conditions.
      • Both bullpens have heavy recent usage but zero back-to-back relievers; capable relief supports a tight late-game distribution.
      • Gasser worked only 4.0 innings and 56 pitches last outing; an early bullpen game can widen the score distribution.
    34. Los Angeles Dodgers −1
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-14T14:15:59-07:00. One-leg LEAN ticket. Stake: 0.5 units.
      • Most likely loss: Milwaukee wins; a one-run Dodgers win is a push rather than a ticket win.

    Questions

    Who won Brewers vs. Dodgers?

    The Brewers won 6-2 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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