New England vs. Real Salt Lake: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 10:42 PM PST

FinalAmerica First Field · Sandy

New England

0-3

Real Salt Lake

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
NE	0	0	0
RSL	1	2	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total goals over 3.5 61¢

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 614 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 4-2 on this game · +27% return

Match total goals over 3.5
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 days
New England match winner
−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle moved New England from +214 at 17:24:49 PDT to +220 at 17:54:37 PDT; Kalshi did not follow after the XI data.
- The attacking XI is not depleted: Real Salt Lake XI attacking xG was 2.12 versus its 1.52 recent norm; New England was 2.75 versus 1.76.
Over 3.5 Total Goals
−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: RSL 1.30 for/1.50 against; New England 2.10 for/1.23 against.
- RSL has only three rest days and eight players sidelined; the starting XI was not posted at this wake.
Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION edge class; confirmed XI omits RSL creator Diego Luna, whose 10-game club sample produced 0.17 xG/90 and 0.41 big chances created/90.
- RSL also omits 10-start defender Justen Glad (6.87 rating), while New England's listed XI omits Leonardo Campana (0.44 xG/90 in his club sample).
- Confirmed starting-XI attacking xG is 2.12 for RSL and 2.75 for New England; the sheet removes key contributors on both sides rather than adding an attacking upgrade.
- Most likely loss is an early goal opening the match and forcing higher tempo; New England's 2.75 XI attacking xG remains a real threat.
New England spread NO over 1.5 goalsFavorite
+15%Won
Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION / lumpy-margin read: primary Dixon-Coles AH probability for New England to win by more than 0.5 is 0.17; xG coverage is true with 9 matches per side.
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Real Salt Lake 1.30 xGF and 1.50 xGA; New England 2.10 xGF and 1.23 xGA, with model lambdas 1.15 and 2.35 respectively.
- The direct lambda cross-check is internally inconsistent with the AH field and would imply materially more New England 2+ outcomes; this unresolved model conflict limits conviction.
Real Salt Lake spread −1
+223%Won
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-26 5:56:26 PM PDT. Fixture is scheduled for 6:30 PM PDT.
- A one-goal RSL win pushes the −1 spread; 0-0, 1-1, or any New England win loses.