Portland Timbers vs. SJ Earthquakes: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 10:43 PM PST

FinalPayPal Park · San Jose

Portland Timbers

1-3

SJ Earthquakes

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
PT	0	1	1
SJ	3	0	3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total goals over 3.5 49¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Poisson at total 2.83 gives 0.69 probability of 0-3 goals; Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 0.57, consistent with a moderate rather than extreme scoring environment.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 614 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 1-7 on this game · −74% return

Total goals under 3.5Long shot2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsInjury Time, Open Play
Why 2 models like it
Injury Time
- 3-0 at the wake; SJ's third goal was minute 29, within 3, 19 minutes of the assumed clock.
- At 40': raw remaining λ 0.75/0.90; 30% leader suppression and 30% trailer lift give 0.52/1.16.
- At 32', the low end of the clock band, P(no further goals) is 14.1%; edge remains 7.2 points.
Open Play
- Fair total 2.9 goals: opponent-adjusted xG blend is 1.35 SJ plus 1.48 Portland, using 10 games each.
- Dixon-Coles lambdas total 2.95 (1.34 home, 1.61 away), confirming the xG-built number.
- Only 10 xG games per team: this is moderate coverage with meaningful sample error.
Match total goals over 3.5
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Poisson at total 2.83 gives 0.69 probability of 0-3 goals; Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 0.57, consistent with a moderate rather than extreme scoring environment.
- Pinnacle lists 3.5 under at +102; market ladder fits roughly 3.7 expected goals versus our 2.83. Edge class: PROJECTION; band: LEAN.
- Four or more goals loses outright; an early goal can materially widen the match's transition profile.
Portland Timbers spread +1Favorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Both XIs are posted at 11 starters each; xG coverage is true with 10 matches on the thinner side and all required model fields populated.
- The neighboring +0.5 rung would have no push outcome, but ProphetX does not list that half-goal rung here.
- Dixon-Coles is an unvalidated pregame model and its feature snapshot runs through September 19; red cards and finishing variance are wide in MLS.
Under 2.5 Total GoalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: SJ 1.46 for/1.38 against; Portland 1.57 for/1.24 against, with equal 7-day rest.
- Adjacent ladder is consistent with the projection: under 3.5 is 50¢, while the model's P(under 3.5) is about 65.8%.
- Three or more regular-time goals loses; the 2.95 combined lambda leaves meaningful tail risk.
Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 2% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Portland's confirmed starter attack projects 2.23 xG versus 2.40 for its usual XI, a −0.18 delta.
- Alexander Aravena is absent from the XI after a 9/19 hip-injury listing; his recent advanced sample shows 0.78 xG per 90.
- SJ's starter attack improves to 2.60 xG from a 2.36 usual-XI baseline, offsetting Portland's downgrade.
Portland Timbers spread over 1.5 goalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Expected-goals inputs: SJ home oppadj xGF/xGA 1.46/1.38; Portland away 1.57/1.24; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.34 and 1.61.
- MLS 2026 empirical sample: home-minus-away goal difference 0/1/2 accounts for 234 of 388 matches (60.3%); away margin of 2+ is 43 of 388 (11.1%), supporting a lumpy ladder read.
- This is a self-referenced Kalshi spread: no independent sharp price exists for the exact +1.5 Portland rung, so the model may be the wrong number.