Updated
FinalQ2 Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| AUST | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan Diego +1 79¢
Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: Directional check is mixed but acceptable for a small position: San Diego's goalkeeper absence is a downgrade, while Austin also has multiple listed absences.
Two Goal CushionUp 1% return this season · 192 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-6 on this game · −69% return
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, Low Tide LineWhy 2 models like it
Bench Boss- San Diego's 13.03 passes allowed per defensive action versus Austin's 14.69 points to the stronger press controlling build-out.
- San Diego's 0.57 field tilt versus Austin's 0.45 supports territorial control, while Austin's home xG is only 0.94.
- The most likely loss is an early goal forcing an open transition game and a second goal before either coach can slow it.
Low Tide Line- Poisson inputs total 2.31 expected goals (Austin λ 0.75; San Diego λ 1.55).
- San Diego's 1.58 xG-for rate is the stronger attacking input; an early goal can break the under quickly.
- Match total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-blended goals: Austin 1.01 plus San Diego 1.45 equals 2.46 expected total.
- Self-reference only; adjacent Pinnacle 3.0 pricing is not same-rung validation.
- San Diego +1+27%Won
Taken at 79¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check is mixed but acceptable for a small position: San Diego's goalkeeper absence is a downgrade, while Austin also has multiple listed absences.
- The feature row was computed through September 20; the current MLS report lists San Diego goalkeeper CJ Dos Santos and five others out, which could expand Austin's two-goal tail.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Austin 0.93 for / 1.43 against; San Diego 1.47 for / 1.09 against; gp_with_xg is 10 for Austin and 9 for San Diego.
- Fresh 4:56 PM PDT lineup data lists current starters for both clubs; this is a projection play, not a stale timing or rotation claim.
- Two goals still cash; a quick opening goal or an Austin-San Diego transition match can push the total to three.
- Austin spread NO over 1.5 goals+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Full xG coverage: Austin 10 matches, San Diego 9; opp-adjusted xGF/xGA are Austin 0.93/1.43 and San Diego 1.47/1.09; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 0.75/1.55.
- The lambda goal-difference cross-check gives Austin 5.2% to win by 2+; the NO price is 83¢, an 11.8-point model-versus-price disagreement.
- MLS 2026 empirical sample: 388 matches, goal differences of 0/1/2 occurred 100/86/48 times; the ladder is visibly lumpy rather than smoothly declining.
- Austin could outperform its 0.75 lambda through finishing variance, San Diego errors, or a late lineup change not represented in the pregame features.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayDown 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.46 opp-adjusted xG total: Austin 1.01 expected, San Diego 1.45; xG window is 10 Austin and 9 San Diego matches.
- Raw xG cross-check is 2.71; conservative blend fair total is 2.58, implying approximately 74% under 3.5.
- Only 9-10 xG-backed matches per side: moderate sample, so the 2.58 fair total has a wide error bar.
Show all 7 picks
- San Diego to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle-derived reference gives San Diego about 50.1%, agreeing with the direction.
- Coverage is complete: model, form, xG and ratings all present; nine xG matches underpin the row.
- A model-to-price gap above 15 points can signal calibration error or unobserved lineup news.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. Austin?
Austin won 3-3 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.