Updated
FinalShell Energy Stadium · Houston
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| HOUS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals over 2.5 41¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Pinnacle posts 3 goals, Over +102 / Under −115; Kalshi is the 41c NO price.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 614 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-1 on this game · +97% return
- Total goals under 2.5+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, Low Tide LineWhy 2 models like it
Bench Boss- Confirmed Houston 5-3-2 and Sporting KC 4-4-2 structures point to a controlled, shape-first matchup.
- Warehouse model projects 2.27 combined goals and 60.5% under 2.5; the venue price is 40¢ (+150).
- An early goal can force both 5-3-2 and 4-4-2 shapes into a more open transition game.
Low Tide Line- xG rates are modest: Houston 1.08 for, Sporting KC 1.19 for; both defenses allow over 1.4 per match.
- Recent form is Houston 5-3-2 and Sporting KC 2-1-7, supporting a controlled Houston-led game rather than a shootout.
- The 20.5-point projection gap is unusually large; Dixon-Coles calibration is unvalidated.
- Match total goals over 2.5+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts 3 goals, Over +102 / Under −115; Kalshi is the 41c NO price.
- Raw, non-opponent-adjusted xG totals 2.77 versus 2.52 adjusted, so schedule correction is doing meaningful work.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Venue self-reference: adjacent under 1.5 is +430 and under 3.5 is −174; the selected 2.5 rung is the qualified, liquid under.
- Exactly 3 goals loses; both teams' opponent-adjusted defensive numbers leave a meaningful three-goal tail.
- Houston Dynamo spread NO over 1.5 goals+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected-goals inputs: Houston oppadj xGF/xGA 0.97/1.24; Sporting KC 1.20/1.62; Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.16/1.10.
- League-wide MLS history is not Houston-specific; lineup and late team-news effects are not independently confirmed here.
- Sporting KC spread +1+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days - Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-26T15:02:58-07:00.
- The model contradicts the flow; its lambdas are 1.16 home and 1.10 away.
Show all 7 picks
- Total goals (regular time) under 2.5+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayDown 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 2.52 goals: opponent-adjusted xG blend gives Houston 1.30 and Sporting KC 1.22.
- Feature xG coverage clears the gate at 8 Houston games and 9 Sporting KC games; moderate MLS sample.
- seven rest days each, PPDA 15.51/15.80 and field tilt .428/.439 create no aggressive-press contradiction to the under.
- Eight-to-nine-game coverage is moderate rather than deep; the opp-adjusted macro itself reports seven xG-covered rows per team.
Questions
Who won Sporting KC vs. Houston Dynamo?
Sporting KC won 2-0 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.