Updated
FinalLower.com Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IM | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| COLU | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 54¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Dixon-Coles model gives Over 2.5 probability 0.39, directionally confirming the cooler xG read; PPDA is 12.01 Columbus and 14.25 Miami, a modest secondary tempo signal.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 612 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-5 on this game · −46% return
- Total goals over 3.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles model gives Over 2.5 probability 0.39, directionally confirming the cooler xG read; PPDA is 12.01 Columbus and 14.25 Miami, a modest secondary tempo signal.
- The model-to-market gap is nearly one expected goal; the opp-adjusted inputs could be wrong in this long-tail matchup.
- Columbus under 0.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
Team SheetUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI was visible by 3:25:34 PM PDT. Wessam Abou Ali is sidelined; his xG/90 is 0.49.
- Projection: Columbus lambda 0.82 before the absence, 0.33 after subtracting Abou Ali's xG/90.
- Repricing test passed: last Kalshi change was 3:23:00 PM PDT, before lineup availability at 3:25:34 PM PDT.
- The subtraction treats Abou Ali's xG/90 as a direct independent lambda shock; replacement effects and shared chance creation are uncertain.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG is Columbus 0.80 for/1.14 against and Miami 1.70 for/1.38 against; this is only moderate upward pressure.
- Opponent-adjusted attacking and defensive inputs imply roughly 2.51 combined goals, above the fitted 2.26.
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Columbus' 10-game home xG is 0.91 for and 1.19 against, supporting a compressed total.
- Confirmed 4-4-2 Columbus versus 4-3-3 Miami; Columbus averages 12.4 shots across the 10-game home sample.
- Miami's away xG is 1.71 and its recent away profile averages 5.22 shots on target.
- Inter Miami spread YES 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG inputs: Columbus 0.80 for / 1.14 against; Miami 1.70 for / 1.38 against.
- LEAN only: self-referenced because no independent sharp same-rung spread price exists; not a RECOMMENDED claim.
- Game under 3.5 total goals+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Low Tide LineDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse xG form totals 2.62: Columbus 0.91 plus Inter Miami 1.71.
- Poisson projection puts under 3.5 at approximately 73.3%, versus a 51.92¢ ProphetX quote.
- Rolling xG form is not a fixture-specific total model; Poisson independence adds uncertainty.
Show all 7 picks
- Inter Miami win−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Inter Miami leads the warehouse Elo ratings 1,646 to 1,436 and averages 1.71 xG per match versus Columbus's 0.91.
- Pinnacle's captured two-way reference implies roughly 55.1% for the Miami side, agreeing with the direction.
- The projection is a Dixon-Coles feature, not a fully independent lineup-adjusted model; minimum xG history is nine matches.
Questions
Who won Inter Miami vs. Columbus Crew?
Columbus Crew won 2-1 on Sunday, Sep 27, 2026.