Mavericks vs. RocketsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalVenetian Arena · Macao
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 30 | 37 | 37 | 132 |
| HOU | 27 | 24 | 34 | 30 | 115 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 230.5 points 50¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Dallas is the slight tempo driver at 107.5 possessions versus Houston's 105.1; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0 after one game.
Shot ClockUp 1% return this season · 238 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-1 on this game · +0% return
- Houston Rockets to win−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston won the opener 135-117, exposing Dallas's unsettled defensive rotation before the rematch.
- Ime Udoka has a year-3 system and a demonstrated competitive rotation; Dusty May's NBA rotation sample is minimal.
- Houston's opener used a balanced core: VanVleet 24.4 minutes, Eason 23.9, Sengun 21.8, plus Reed Sheppard's 18.7 off the bench.
- Kevin Durant is confirmed out after scoring 15 in 23 opener minutes, removing Houston's best matchup advantage.
- Over 230.5 points+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dallas is the slight tempo driver at 107.5 possessions versus Houston's 105.1; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0 after one game.
- Efficiency supports scoring: Houston posted 128.5 ORTG against Dallas's 125.6 DRTG; Dallas posted 108.9 ORTG against Houston's 111.3 DRTG.
- Blending the opener with 2025 baselines and adjusting for Durant's confirmed absence produces a 236-point projection, 5.5 above 230.5.
- Kevin Durant is out after scoring 15 in 23.2 opener minutes; the size of Houston's offensive downgrade is uncertain.
Questions
Who won Mavericks vs. Rockets?
The Mavericks won 132–115 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.