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Ravens vs. FalconsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMercedes-Benz Stadium
Ravens3–1
30–23Final
Falcons2–2
Score by period
Team12345T
BAL3668730
ATL7736023

Top model pick, graded

Won

Baltimore Ravens exact margin 7-14 10¢

Why Exact Change likes it: Pinnacle's devigged Falcons -3.5 anchor is 47.6%, centering Atlanta's margin near 3.5.

Exact ChangeUp 90% return this season · 91 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 15-27 on this game · −7% return

  1. Baltimore Ravens to win3 models agree
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Skip Bayless Tracker +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels were Baltimore 3 versus Atlanta 3; this measure is neutral, so the signal qualifies on two of three measures, not three.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire primary read; no independent sharp reference confirms the side.
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • This-wake @RealSkipBayless feed item said Atlanta had “just lost” after failing to cash a TD following Bijan Robinson's sensational run.
    • Baltimore trails 9-17 in Q3, yet Polymarket US prices Baltimore's YES at 35.5c, leaving room for the live call to come true.
    • Atlanta leads 17-9 with home-field advantage, so Baltimore needs a comeback after the missed red-zone opportunity.
    Long Way Home
    • Baltimore leads offensive EPA/play +0.078 to +0.0274, explosive rate .1445 to .1063, and points/drive 2.528 to 2.108.
    • The Ravens have one extra rest day and stronger recent form: 3-1, +5.0 average margin versus Atlanta's 2-2, +1.0.
    • The warehouse snapshot was computed through October 5; fresh inactive and lineup confirmation was not established.
  2. Atlanta Falcons −3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Approx. primary pass-trench edge +1.38 Z: Atlanta offense +0.66 versus Baltimore offense −0.72.
    • Atlanta OL pass-block grade 68.4 (+0.85 Z); Baltimore 53.3 (−1.71 Z).
    • Atlanta LT Jake Matthews is questionable, while Samson Ebukam is questionable and Za'Darius Smith is out.
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Lamar Jackson is confirmed out on the fresh game-day report, resolving Baltimore's highest-impact availability variable.
    • Atlanta's PIT profile leads Baltimore in success rate .5477 to .4828 and defensive EPA allowed -0.1188 to -.0382.
    • Atlanta LT Jake Matthews and Baltimore WR Zay Flowers remain questionable, leaving important matchup uncertainty.
  3. Bijan Robinson over 18.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • Robinson has 85 carries in four games: 21, 16, 29, 19; his 21.3-game average clears the line by 2.8.
    • He owns a 64.6% snap share, 52.4% run-snap rate, and workhorse label; the opportunity is established.
    • Baltimore's defense can still force Atlanta behind schedule and make the Falcons pass.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 85 carries through four games: 21.25 per game, 2.75 above the line.
    • Over in three of four games; last two carry counts were 19 and 29.
    • Baltimore's recent defense allowed -0.1201 EPA per play over its last 10 games.
  4. Tyler Huntley under 1.5 passing touchdownsFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −230 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL HunterV2, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL HunterV2
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out; NFL.com and ESPN confirm Tyler Huntley as Baltimore's starter.
    • Huntley has zero passing touchdowns on nine attempts this season; the sample is small but directionally consistent.
    • Two passing touchdowns beat the 1.5 threshold despite the expected rushing emphasis.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 under hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 100% (10/10); 2026 season 100% (1/1).
    • Sleeper projects 0.81 passing TDs and ESPN 1.01, both 32.7%-46.0% below the 1.5 line.
    • The current-season sample is only one start; prior-game production came in a different role and offense context.
  5. Derrick Henry over 19.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL HunterV2, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL HunterV2
    • 89 carries through four games: 22.3 attempts per game.
    • Henry owns a 59.4% snap share and 60.3% run-snap rate as Baltimore's early-down hammer.
    • A two-score Atlanta lead could force Baltimore into Huntley dropbacks.
    Number Earned
    • 89 rushing attempts in 4 games: 22.25 per-game baseline versus 19.5.
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out; Baltimore's workload should consolidate toward Henry.
    • Cam Jurgens and Andrew Vorhees are out, creating offensive-line uncertainty against Atlanta's front.
  6. Second-half drawLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ravens +1.5 minus Ravens -1.5 implies a 0.13 draw probability; draw is quoted 0.08.
    • Second-half handicap ladder is monotone across every non-placeholder rung inspected.
    • The five-point gap may be a stale or wide market inconsistency rather than a realizable edge.
Show all 36 picks
  1. Third-quarter drawLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ravens +1.5 minus Ravens -1.5 implies a 0.24 draw probability; draw is quoted 0.22.
    • Third-quarter handicap ladder is monotone from Ravens +1.5 through -4.5.
    • A single field goal or touchdown differential loses the draw contract.
  2. First-quarter drawLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ravens +1.5 minus Ravens -1.5 implies a 0.25 draw probability; draw is quoted 0.22.
    • First-quarter handicap ladder is monotone as Ravens move from +1.5 to -4.5.
    • The contract wording is an isolated first-quarter result, not a cumulative score.
    • First-quarter scoring variance is wide; any score differential ends the tie claim.
  3. Atlanta Falcons spread −3.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta's defense allows -0.1188 EPA/play versus Baltimore's -0.0382; lower is better.
    • Lamar Jackson is out; Tyler Huntley is expected to start for Baltimore, while Michael Penix Jr. is Atlanta's current starter.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore's raw offense leads in EPA/play (.0780 vs Atlanta .0274) and points/drive (2.528 vs 2.108), and Huntley may offset less than expected.
  4. Baltimore Ravens exact margin 7-14Long shot
    +900%Won

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's devigged Falcons -3.5 anchor is 47.6%, centering Atlanta's margin near 3.5.
    • The bucket contains key margins 7, 10, and 14, where touchdown and field-goal arithmetic concentrates outcomes.
    • Atlanta is still the sharp-market favorite; the spread anchor can simply be right.
  5. under 43.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lamar Jackson is confirmed out; Tyler Huntley is the listed active Ravens quarterback for this game.
    • Baltimore's recent defense allows -0.1201 EPA per play; Atlanta's defense allows -0.1234.
    • Atlanta's recent offense is only -0.0054 EPA per play despite a 2.042 points-per-drive rate.
    • Zay Flowers and Jake Matthews are questionable, creating unresolved usage and protection variance.
  6. Under total 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 52.5% under versus Pinnacle devigged 50.7% under at 44; gap 1.8p.
    • Power rating projects 43.7 points from EPA, success rate, explosive rate, PPD, plus Lamar Jackson out and Tyler Huntley starting.
    • Atlanta allows -0.1188 defensive EPA/play; Baltimore's opponent-adjusted scoring matchup is the weaker side of the model.
    • Most likely loss: Tua Tagovailoa and Atlanta's efficient offense create explosive plays against Baltimore's depleted secondary.
  7. Drake London first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +700 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 15%; fair price about +567 versus DK +700.
    • London owns 25 targets and 101 routes, the clearest Atlanta early-pass access behind a strong home offense.
    • His zero touchdowns through four games creates modest positive regression without relying on a raw touchdown streak.
    • Bijan Robinson is the most likely Atlanta goal-line scorer and can take the first touchdown.
  8. Derrick Henry anytime touchdown
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 65%; fair price about -186 versus DK -155.
    • 89 carries, 7 rushing TDs through four games; 0.594 season snap share and 0.625 last-game share.
    • Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley starts, increasing Baltimore's expected ground and goal-line concentration.
    • Baltimore's center grade is only 21.5 and Atlanta's defensive-line pass-rush grade is 73.1.
  9. Baltimore Ravens first-half spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE + PROJECTION.
    • Atlanta's full-game spread is -3.5; the half distribution is fitted from 32.93/33.405-second pace and current EPA inputs, not by mechanically halving that line.
    • First-half margin variance is scaled with square-root drive growth, not linear halving, making +2.5 more valuable than a simple mean-only projection.
    • 2026 inputs cover only four games per team, with both teams under first-year head coaches and substantial roster turnover.
  10. Game second-half total under 23.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: 1H 20.5 plus 2H 23.5 implies 44.0, versus the full-game 42.5 anchor.
    • The 2H rung is 1.5 points too high after allowing a modest late scoring bump; own under estimate is 64%.
    • Half variance scales with the square root of expected drives, not linearly with possessions; this widens tails but does not justify a three-point 2H mean bump.
    • Second-half scoring is conditioned on halftime state; a short-field or pass-heavy comeback script can create rapid points.
  11. Bijan Robinson over 87.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60.7% average snap share over his last three games; primary backfield role with no active injury designation.
    • 137 rushing yards per game over the last three: 72, 194, 145.
    • Recent workload averaged 21.3 carries; he had 19 and 29 attempts in two of three games.
    • Baltimore's full-season defense allows -0.0382 EPA per play, a meaningful matchup hurdle.
  12. Drake London over 80.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Decision: Moderate. ATL pass block grade 67.1, PBE 97.9, with 20 pressures and 4 sacks allowed; Matthews confirmed active.
    • BAL's pass-rush matchup grades 60.7 with a 9.6% win rate; Za'Darius Smith and Trey Hendrickson are inactive.
    • Mechanism confirmed: Penix averaged 2.27, 2.57 seconds to throw in Weeks 3, 4 and has 1 sack on 45 attempts.
    • Atlanta's run-block grade (61.0) trails Baltimore's run-defense grade (68.1), so the run-side trench angle is not supportive.
  13. Atlanta Falcons −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    CLV Sharp ATSDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-5 net EPA/play favors Atlanta 0.129 to Baltimore 0.087 before the quarterback adjustment.
    • Atlanta's last-5 success rate is 50.9% versus Baltimore's 46.6%.
    • Lamar Jackson is officially Out as of 5:34 AM PDT; the injury-adjusted model projects Atlanta about -6.
    • Baltimore remains 3-1 with positive underlying net EPA despite the quarterback change.
  14. Justice Hill over 1.5 receptions
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 2-4: 46.6%/19, 32.8%/15, 37.5%/16 snap share/routes; route participation W1/W2/W4: 77.3%/72.0%/84.2%.
    • RB2 and pass-down satellite: 40.6% season snaps, 54.8% route participation, 68 routes; Henry is the early-down RB1.
    • Baltimore averaged 61.75 plays (66/58/60/63); project 62 plays, 29 dropbacks, and 1.9 Hill receptions.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore leads or Atlanta pressure suppresses third-down and checkdown opportunities.
  15. Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 24.7% shortfall: 230 yards on 65 carries last 3 versus about 306 expected at a blended 4.70 YPC baseline.
    • 61% average snap share last 3; 21.7 carries per game and 23 carries in the latest game sustain opportunity.
    • Henry is verified active for this matchup; his 2026 YPC is 4.20 versus 5.20 in 2025, supporting positive regression.
    • Atlanta has allowed -0.119 defensive EPA per play this season, a strong efficiency matchup against the projection.
  16. Baltimore Ravens over 20.5 team points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My matchup fit is 22.0 points: Baltimore's +0.078 offensive EPA/play and 2.528 points/drive clear 20.5.
    • The board looks mechanically spread-split: 43.5 game total and Atlanta -3.5 imply roughly 20 points for Baltimore; 20.5 is not an independent matchup number.
    • Atlanta's defense is the matchup's strongest unit at -0.1188 EPA/play allowed, so stalled drives can leave Baltimore at 17-20.
  17. Game total under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's reference total is 43.0, while DraftKings and FanDuel are 43.5; ProphetX leaves a full point of under protection.
    • QB gate passed: NFL.com and ESPN confirm Lamar Jackson out and Tyler Huntley starting; Atlanta's latest depth chart lists Michael Penix Jr. QB1.
    • Current form is defense-leaning: Atlanta allows -0.1188 defensive EPA/play and averages 1.97 points/drive over five; Baltimore averages 2.653 points/drive.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta converts its home offensive edge into efficient touchdowns while Huntley creates short fields or Baltimore answers with explosive plays.
  18. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both defenses show strong recent EPA allowed: Baltimore -0.1201 and Atlanta -0.1234 over the last 10.
    • Baltimore's Lamar Jackson is officially out; the replacement-QB setup adds downside to the Ravens' scoring expectation.
    • Ravens and Falcons recent offensive EPA rates are +0.0711 and -0.0054, respectively, supporting a lower combined scoring baseline.
    • The 43.5 total was flat from the captured opening, so the market may already reflect Jackson's absence.
  19. Atlanta Falcons by 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season EPA matchup gives Atlanta a +0.030 per-play net edge; the last-five regular-game blend gives Atlanta +0.022.
    • Atlanta leads season success rate 54.8% to 48.3%; this supports a controlled home-favorite margin.
    • Lamar Jackson is ruled out and Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start, a material Baltimore offensive downgrade.
    • Baltimore's current EPA offense remains strong at +0.078 per play, so the replacement-quarterback adjustment could be overstated.
  20. Atlanta Falcons first touchdown
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lamar Jackson is confirmed OUT by espn_live at 4:05 PM; Tyler Huntley is the declared QB2 behind him.
    • Atlanta's offense has 10 red-zone trips and 8 conversions through four games; Baltimore's defense has allowed 9 conversions on 14 opponent trips.
    • Atlanta's live usage chart has Michael Penix Jr. as QB1 and Bijan Robinson as a 64.6% snap-share workhorse; the team-level market avoids backfield split risk.
    • First-touchdown markets are high variance; opening-kick result and first-drive execution are unknown.
  21. Bijan Robinson touchdowns 1+Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.6% snap share and workhorse label; Brian Robinson trails at 35.4%.
    • Atlanta converted 8 of 10 red-zone trips; Baltimore allowed 11 of 15 opponents' red-zone trips to score.
    • Bijan is the declared RB1, with no unresolved backfield injury ahead; Atlanta is a home favorite, supporting a run-heavy lead script.
    • The 8-for-10 Atlanta red-zone sample is only 10 trips across four games.
  22. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +49200

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona +0.5 wins a tie; Cardinals moneyline is also +220 and only pushes on a tie.
    • Falcons -3 pushes on an exact 3-point win; adjacent Falcons -3.5 is +108 versus -113 on the whole rung.
    • No independent projection edge is claimed; this is a rules-and-price comparison, not a side forecast.
  23. Bijan Robinson over 86.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 121.0 rushing yards per game through four weeks, 39.9% above the 86.5-yard line.
    • 21.25 carries per game; he has at least 19 carries in three of four games.
    • Baltimore's -0.0382 defensive EPA/play is materially less stout than Atlanta's -0.1188 mark.
    • Robinson has cleared 86.5 in only two of four games; the average is inflated by 194 and 145-yard outliers.
  24. Atlanta Falcons spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta's defense is -0.1188 EPA/play allowed versus Baltimore's -0.0382; the 0.0806 gap supports the home spread.
    • Personnel gate, freshest depth chart lists Michael Penix Jr. and Tyler Huntley first; game-day ESPN rows list Lamar Jackson Out, with no Out/Doubtful row for Penix or Huntley.
    • sportsbook and captured board prices were context only; no second leg forced because this is the only qualified leg.
    • Atlanta's offense trails Baltimore's pregame EPA, 0.0274 to 0.078; a low-scoring one-score game can fail -3.
  25. Atlanta Falcons to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta's defense leads Baltimore by 0.0806 EPA/play allowed (-0.1188 vs -0.0382) through four games.
    • Personnel gate, Lamar Jackson is ruled out; official Falcons reporting says Tyler Huntley starts, while Atlanta's current depth chart lists Michael Penix Jr. first.
    • Pinnacle Atlanta -171; context only, not the named edge. Quarter-Kelly from my 64% fair estimate is above the 0.5% bankroll cap, so stake is capped at 0.5 units.
    • Baltimore's offense has the better pregame EPA profile (0.078 vs Atlanta's 0.0274), and Huntley's performance is a major unknown.
  26. Tyler Huntley over 18.5 pass completions
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lamar Jackson is officially OUT with an ankle injury; Huntley is listed Active on the current game prop board.
    • Atlanta allowed 23, 28 and 30 completions in Weeks 2-4 on 36, 53 and 48 opponent attempts.
    • Baltimore could lean on Derrick Henry or protect a lead, keeping Huntley's attempts below the 27.5 market expectation.
  27. Bijan Robinson over 24.2 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi FFPTS full-PPR scoring rewards Robinson's combined rushing, receiving, and touchdown workload.
    • He scored 25.3, 12.7, 35.3, and 27.7 points in four games; mean 25.3 and over in three.
    • Robinson has 19 and 29 carries in his last two games and a 64.6% offensive snap share with a workhorse label.
    • The 24.2 line is touchdown-sensitive; his two sub-18 outputs show the downside without a score.
  28. Tyler Huntley under 179.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60.0% own win estimate versus 53.1% break-even: +6.9 percentage points.
    • Huntley's last five recorded 2025-26 games produced 63, 107, 65, 186 and 68 passing yards; the under hit in 4 of 5.
    • Huntley is confirmed as Baltimore's starting quarterback with established prior starting-game workload.
    • A negative game script could force Huntley above the expected 27-28 attempts.
  29. Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 57.5% own win estimate versus 51.2% break-even: +6.3 percentage points.
    • Lamar Jackson is out; Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start, materially lowering Baltimore's offensive baseline.
    • Baltimore's recent defense allows -0.1201 EPA/play over the 10-game window; Atlanta's season offense is only +0.0274 EPA/play.
    • Atlanta scored 35 and 45 in its last two regular-season games, creating real over-tail risk.
  30. Drake London under 6.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −146 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 under hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 70% (7/10); 2026 season 75% (3/4).
    • Projections are 5.89 (Sleeper) and 5.54 (ESPN) versus 6.5: 9.4%-14.8% below the line.
    • London owns a stable 85.8% snap share and 27.7% target share, but Atlanta plays at a league-slow 32.9 seconds/play and passes 43.3%.
    • London still led Atlanta with 6 targets last week and a 27.7% season target share; six catches can beat this.

Questions

Who won Ravens vs. Falcons?

The Ravens won 30–23 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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