Oilers vs. DucksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHonda Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonEdmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks game total over 6.5 57¢
Why Backup Burst likes it: 7.4 projected goals, 0.9 above the 6.5 line; combined 15-game scoring rate is 7.13 before the backup adjustment.
Backup BurstNew · 9 graded so far
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-11 on this game · −63% return
- Anaheim Ducks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsBackup Net, Backup Tax +3Why 5 models like it
Backup Net- Confirmed starters are Lukas Dostal for Anaheim and Devon Levi for Edmonton in official NHL team reports.
- Last 10 starts: Dostal stopped 195/217 (.899); Levi stopped 257/296 (.868), a 3.0-point gap after season-opening shrinkage.
- The last-10 blend includes only two 2026 starts and older 2024-25 data; both goalies’ current form is noisy.
Backup Tax- Devon Levi is confirmed for Edmonton; Lukas Dostal is confirmed for Anaheim, creating the required backup-versus-starter split.
- Levi owns a .810 current-season save rate; Dostal is at .918, while Dostal has 67 prior-season starts plus two this season.
- Edmonton has scored 17 goals in three current-season games; its offense can overwhelm the goalie edge.
Cohort Check- Confirmed starters: Lukas Dostal owns a .918 save percentage and 2.42 GAA; Devon Levi is at .810 and 4.02.
- Anaheim is 2-0 with a +1.0 goal differential per game; Edmonton is 2-0-1 with the same margin but worse current defensive rate.
- Four points is a modest edge, so one-goal variance and overtime randomness matter.
Morning Puck- 54% shrunken Poisson estimate versus the 45¢ Ducks contract.
- League scoring baseline is 3.115; Edmonton has 5.667 GF and 4.667 GA through three games.
- Pinnacle's devigged Ducks probability is only 45.2%, a sharp-market disagreement with this model.
- Game total over 7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At that mean, 8+ goals project at 40.3%; the 5.5/6.5/7.5 total ladder is monotonic.
- Anaheim's Lukas Dostal is projected but unconfirmed; Edmonton's Devon Levi was confirmed by the Oilers.
- Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at +114 on FanDuel
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.1 SOG average over his last 10 games, 0.6 above the 3.5 line.
- 23:16 average TOI and 3:59 average power-play time over that 10-game sample.
- Current Daily Faceoff listing puts McDavid on Edmonton’s top line and PP1; the live prop board lists him for this game.
- Anaheim’s 30.5 allowance is based on only two current-season games and is below the 31.0 recent-rate fallback threshold.
- Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Ducks game total over 6.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Backup BurstUp 91% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7.4 projected goals, 0.9 above the 6.5 line; combined 15-game scoring rate is 7.13 before the backup adjustment.
- Devon Levi is confirmed for Edmonton; his current two-start line is .8095 save percentage and 4.02 GAA.
- Anaheim averages 30.73 shots on goal and 64.0 shot attempts across the recent 15-game window, ranking fifth of 33 teams in attempts.
- Lukas Dostal is confirmed and has a .918 save percentage through two starts; a strong opposing goalie can erase the event bump.
- Game total over 6.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 7.34 goals after shrinking early-season rates toward 2025-26 team rates.
- Base blended total is 7.09; empty-net adjustment adds 0.25 goals.
- Edmonton is -129 to -135, while both teams’ five early-season margins are modest: -1 to +2.
- Edmonton is missing multiple regular forwards, including Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
- Anaheim Ducks +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at −218 on DraftKings
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent cover estimate: 72%; DraftKings -218 implies roughly 68.5%, with a fair price near -257.
- Confirmed Lukas Dostal: .918 save percentage and 2.42 GAA; confirmed Devon Levi: .810 and 4.02.
- Anaheim is 2-0 with a 3.5-2.5 scoring profile; home ice and the goalie edge support a one-goal-or-better result.
- Edmonton's 59.2% five-on-five Corsi and 31.0 shots per game are materially stronger than Anaheim's 39.0% and 20.5.
Show all 10 picks
- Devon Levi under 23.5 saves−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20.0: Anaheim averages only 20.0 shots per game entering this matchup.
- 21.67: Edmonton allows 21.67 shots per game; Levi’s current shots-against rate is 21.09 per 60.
- Projected save range is roughly 17, 19, leaving a substantial cushion below 23.5.
- Levi’s .8095 save percentage comes from only two starts, so the sample is extremely thin.
- Game first-period goals under 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 regular-season first-period rates were EDM 1.00 and ANA 0.82 goals per game, 1.82 combined.
- Those rates were 26.9% of the teams’ combined 6.77 full-game scoring rate.
- The full-game Polymarket ladder centers near 7 goals; nesting that rate share gives a first-period mean around 1.9.
- The current-season sample is only five combined games; its first-period rate is noisy.
- Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots on goal+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.0 shots per game in 2026-27, 60% above the 2.5 line.
- Edmonton averages 31.0 shots per game and carries a 56.0% Corsi share.
- Anaheim's 39.5% Corsi share points to sustained Edmonton possession.
- The sample is only three regular-season games, so 4.0 SOG/game is noisy.
- Lukas Dostal over 25.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Oilers vs. Ducks?
The Oilers won 5–2 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.