Kraken vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCapital One Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 7.5 29¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Over 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 main line; the Novig total ladder is monotonic.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +48% return
- Game total over 7.5+245%Won
Taken at 29¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Over 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 main line; the Novig total ladder is monotonic.
- Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed; NHL.com lists only projected options, so this is half-size.
- Jakob Chychrun over 2.5 shots on goal+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Estimated individual Corsi For averages 7.7 attempts/game across four 2026 games, above the 5.0 baseline.
- 24:32 average TOI; current lineup lists Chychrun on Washington's top pair and PP1.
- Seattle allows 30.2 SOG/game, fifth-highest among the 32 teams in the current sample.
- Actual SOG average is 2.25 over only four games, below this 2.5 threshold.
- Game total over 6+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- an 80/20 blend of current and 2025-26 team rates gives 6.30 base goals; the empty-net adjustment adds 0.47 for a 6.76 projection.
- Washington is the clear favorite at ProphetX -188; its recent margins are mostly 2-3 goals, supporting a modest lead-and-pull script rather than a blowout.
- Projected starters Joey Daccord (.911) and Logan Thompson (.929) are not confirmed; either strong performance can suppress scoring.
- Seattle Kraken–Washington Capitals first-period total over 1.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.225 modeled first-period goals: Washington 1.025, Seattle 1.200 from current-season period attack/defense rates.
- Nested 6.5 game total is consistent with an elevated opening-period share; periods plus 0.2 roughly reconcile.
- Both sides are quoted at 0.58/0.43, with 16.41 contracts traded; the usable ladder is monotone.
- First-period sample is only four Washington and five Seattle games; rates can regress sharply.
- Seattle Kraken under 6.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 6.3 goals after shrinking four/five-game rates toward a 3.1 league average.
- Poisson model gives 56% for six or fewer goals, above the 53¢ contract cost.
- Projected Logan Thompson (.929) and Philipp Grubauer (.915) support the lower scoring estimate.
- Both goalies remain unconfirmed; the NHL preview lists projections, not final starters.
- Jared McCann under 2.0 shots on goal0%Push
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1 SOG across McCann's four listed 2026-27 games; 87.5% below the 2.0 threshold.
- NHL.com projects McCann on Seattle's top line, and PrizePicks lists him for this game.
- PrizePicks line is 2.0 at -137; recent shot output provides the value case.
- Four-game sample is extremely thin and can regress sharply.
Show all 7 picks
- Logan Thompson over 23.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Kraken vs. Capitals?
The Kraken won 5–3 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.