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Avalanche vs. FlamesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Saddledome
Avalanche
7–3Final
Flames
Score by period
Team123T
COL1337
CGY1023

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colorado Avalanche over 4.5 team goals 34¢

Why Leaky Net likes it: Pinnacle's 6-goal total and -237 Colorado moneyline imply roughly 4.1 Colorado goals before the goalie adjustment.

Leaky NetNew · 2 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 9-4 on this game · +38% return

  1. Game total over 6.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBackup Burst, Empty Net Math
    Why 2 models like it
    Backup Burst
    • Projection: 7.0 goals, 0.5 above the 6.5 line.
    • Devin Cooley is confirmed for Calgary; he is the non-elite backup starter.
    • Scott Wedgewood remains projected/expected rather than confirmed; a late goalie change could alter the backup gate.
    Empty Net Math
    • Model mean is 7.37 goals after adding 0.20 for empty-net scoring; positive correlation lifts the upper tail.
    • Polymarket US is cheaper than every listed US sportsbook on this rung: 0.47 versus +104, +105, and +110.
    • The early-season projection uses only three games per team and is highly sensitive to Calgary's extreme 1.0 goals-for rate.
  2. Colorado Avalanche to winFavorite2 models agree
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Goalie, Cohort Check
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Goalie
    • NHL.com confirmed Devin Cooley starts; ProphetX Colorado stayed -225 from its opening quote.
    • Cooley is Calgary's backup: one start in three games this season, behind Dustin Wolf; 2025-26 save percentage was .9091.
    • Cooley's current sample is only 25 shots (.880 save percentage); one poor start is noisy.
    Cohort Check
    • Independent rate/goalie blend makes Colorado 73%, 4.2 points above the sharp devigged 68.8%.
    • Colorado has scored 16 goals in three games; Calgary has scored 3 and allowed 16.
    • Wedgewood is confirmed but has no current-season warehouse goalie sample, leaving his form uncertain.
  3. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +29100

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 5.33 goals; Calgary averages 1.00 and allows 5.33, with Colorado winning three straight meetings.
    • ProphetX re-quote is +292 with a $100 maximum; that sits inside the desk's +150 to +600 target.
    • Montreal allows 4.67 goals per game; Demidov and Guhle are on IR, and both teams are 1-1-1.
  4. Colorado Avalanche over 4.5 team goalsLong shot
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Leaky NetUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 6-goal total and -237 Colorado moneyline imply roughly 4.1 Colorado goals before the goalie adjustment.
    • Devin Cooley is confirmed for Calgary and is the backup behind Dustin Wolf; adding 0.30 gives a projected Colorado mean near 4.4 goals.
    • Cooley posted a .9091 save rate in 26 starts last season, so the generic backup bump may overstate the matchup.
  5. Nathan MacKinnon under 3.5 shots on goal
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 average is 3.9 shots on goal, inside the brief's 3.5, 4.0 regression bucket.
    • The NHL preview is projected rather than a confirmed lineup, and power-play units are not listed.
  6. Game total over 6
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6.37 base goals plus a 0.30 empty-net adjustment gives 6.67, 0.67 above the 6.0 line.
    • Colorado is a -225 favourite; the shrunk scoring split is Colorado 3.87, Calgary 2.50, a 1.37-goal one/two-goal script.
    • The adjacent over 6.5 is +111, making the push-aware 6.0 rung the preferred entry.
    • Both projected starters remain unconfirmed: Scott Wedgewood for Colorado and Devin Cooley for Calgary.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Calgary Flames +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair cover is approximately 72% after shrinking the early team rates to the sharp 6.0 total and -237 Colorado moneyline.
    • Calgary +2.5 costs 0.67 on Polymarket US, roughly 5 points below the modeled cover probability.
    • The ladder is tradable and monotone: Colorado -2.5 YES 0.34 versus Calgary +2.5 NO 0.67.
    • Colorado's early 5.33 goals per game and Calgary's 5.33 goals allowed per game could produce a genuine three-goal margin.
  2. Game total over 5.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is 7.37 goals: current team rates imply 7.17, plus 0.20 empty-net adjustment.
    • Pinnacle's total is 6.0, satisfying the sharp-line gate; Colorado is -237 but only +109 on -1.5, a close-game favorite profile.
    • The rate sample is only three regular-season games per team; Calgary's one goal per game can regress sharply.
  3. Calgary Flames two-way moneyline +215Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
  4. Scott Wedgewood over 22.5 total saves
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
  5. T.J. Hughes under 2.0 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.67 current-season shots per game is 16.5% below the PrizePicks line of 2.0.
    • Hughes has a 45.7% five-on-five SAT and is projected on Colorado’s third line.
    • PrizePicks prices the under at -137, with the player listed as a participant in this game.
    • Three games is a thin sample; one power-play sequence can clear a low 2.0 line.

Questions

Who won Avalanche vs. Flames?

The Avalanche won 7–3 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.

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