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Canucks vs. SharksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSAP Center at San Jose
Canucks
2–3Final
Sharks
Score by period
Team123T
VAN1102
SJ0033

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Jose Sharks to win −170

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: San Jose allows 3.46 goals per game versus Vancouver's 4.64 through 13, 14 games.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-10 on this game · −17% return

  1. San Jose Sharks to win2 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at −170 on FanDuel

    2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Backup Tax
    Why 2 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • San Jose allows 3.46 goals per game versus Vancouver's 4.64 through 13, 14 games.
    • Combined 5-on-5 possession favors San Jose: 45.4% Corsi and 44.8% Fenwick versus Vancouver's 42.1% and 41.5%.
    • Merilainen has the better confirmed quality-start rate: 57.1% versus Askarov's 37.5%.
    Backup Tax
    • Confirmed Merilainen starts for Vancouver with Demko out; Askarov is confirmed for San Jose with eight current-season starts.
    • Merilainen's .9004 save rate is below the .9065 top-half reference, qualifying as a non-top-half backup.
    • Merilainen's current .9004 is close to Askarov's .8984, so the generic backup penalty may overstate the actual matchup gap.
  2. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 over fair is 54.8%; the backup-adjusted fitted mean produces a 44.3% fair chance of 8 or more goals.
    • Confirmed Merilainen starts behind absent Thatcher Demko, satisfying the backup-goalie trigger.
    • Over 7.5 needs eight goals, so ordinary 6- or 7-goal outcomes still lose.
  3. Game total over 5.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 over fair is 54.8%; fitting a Poisson mean and adding 0.30 goals for one backup gives 73.4% at 5.5.
    • Leevi Merilainen is confirmed with Thatcher Demko out, creating the backup-goalie trigger.
    • San Jose projects for 59.1 shot attempts from its offense/Vancouver-allowed blend, around 10th of 32 and inside the top two-fifths.
    • The 13-game shot-attempt sample is early-season and noisy.
  4. Macklin Celebrini over 3.5 shots on goal
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.7 SOG average over his last 10; individual SAT rate converts to approximately 5.9 attempts per game.
    • 22:54 average ice time over his last 10 games, well above the 16:00 gate.
    • Projected first-line center and expected first power-play unit; no injury or game-time decision listed.
    • San Jose's skater lineup remains expected rather than official several hours before puck drop.
  5. San Jose Sharks over 3.5 team goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6.26 combined PP opportunities per game across the referees' last 40-game samples.
    • Jake Brenk ranks 4th of 49 crews/referees at 6.45 PP opportunities per game; Cody Beach is at 6.075.
    • San Jose averages 10.38 PIM per game versus the league's 9.82, while Vancouver's season PK is only 63.8%.
    • Beach ranks 14th of 49 individually, so the top-quartile signal is driven more by Brenk and the pair average than by two elite officials.
  6. Ivar Stenberg over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role: projected on San Jose’s first line and first power-play unit; Wennberg, Chernyshov and Musty are out.
    • Stenberg has 9 points in 13 games, including 7 power-play points and 10.12 PP points/60.
    • He has averaged 3:12 of power-play time per game, with 7 of 13 games producing a point.
    • The exact line and PP assignment remain projected, not an official in-game deployment confirmation.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Macklin Celebrini under 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10-game SOG average is 3.70; Celebrini cleared 3.5 in 5 of those 10.
    • Model base fair is 60%; Vancouver allows 32.79 shots against per game, top fifth, shading fair to 57%.
    • First-line and first-power-play usage is documented in snapshots since October 23, not a new promotion.
    • San Jose injuries to Alexander Wennberg, Igor Chernyshov and Quentin Musty could concentrate usage.
  2. Game total over 6.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended current/2025-26 scoring and conceding rates produce a 6.75-goal baseline.
    • Empty-net adjustment is 0.47 goals (34% occurrence × 1.38-goal two-versus-none gap), projecting 7.22.
    • Vancouver is 1-4 in its last five and could contribute less than the rate blend.
  3. Vancouver Canucks puck line +2.5Favorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates San Jose win by 3+ at 23%, making Vancouver +2.5 a 77% fair cover.
    • San Jose is only 6-6-1 with a 2.846 GF/3.462 GA rate; Vancouver's poor 3.071 GF/4.643 GA profile is already reflected in the anchor.
    • Confirmed goalies are Leevi Merilainen (.900 save percentage) and Yaroslav Askarov (.898), supporting a modest favorite rather than a dominant margin profile.
    • Vancouver's 4.643 goals-against rate creates real three-goal-margin risk.
  4. Leevi Meriläinen over 26.5 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research grade A82: confirmed starter, exact current saves offer, and resolved workload.
    • Meriläinen cleared 26.5 saves in 5 of 7 starts this season.
    • Seven-start sample is thin, and the recent high-shot workload may regress toward San Jose's 27.8 season average.
  5. Vancouver Canucks first-period total under 2.5 goalsFavorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.80 modeled first-period goals from current team period rates: VAN 0.714 GF/1.500 GA, SJS 0.615 GF/0.769 GA.
    • The first-period ladder is clean: both sides quoted, 1¢ gaps, monotone over prices of 88¢, 60¢, 33¢, and 8¢.
    • Both starting goalies are confirmed: Leevi Merilainen and Yaroslav Askarov.
    • Vancouver's 1.500 first-period goals allowed rate is elevated and can produce an early multi-goal game.
  6. Under 6.5 total goals
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson model with 50% first-month shrink toward the 32-team 3.12 goals-per-game baseline projects roughly 6.6, 6.7 total goals and about 50% for under 6.5.
    • Confirmed starters Askarov (.898 save percentage, 3.13 GAA) and Merilainen (.900, 3.35 GAA) keep the goalie-based projection close to the 6.5 sharp line.
    • Polymarket US charges 46c for under 6.5; FanDuel's live sportsbook equivalent is +100, so the best US book does not beat the exchange price.
    • Vancouver has allowed 4.643 goals per game through 14 games, so a defensive breakdown or empty-net goal can erase the edge.
  7. Jake DeBrusk under 2.5 shots on goal
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five games: 6 total shots on goal, averaging 1.2 versus the 2.5 line.
    • DeBrusk is confirmed in the game lineup and this is a standalone player prop.
    • San Jose allows 31.1 shots per game, a matchup path toward more Vancouver attempts.
  8. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent exact totals: Vancouver 3/5 over 6.5; San Jose 3/5; combined 6/10.
    • Vancouver allows 4.64 goals/game; San Jose allows 3.46 through 10/29.
    • Confirmed goalies' last five starts combine for 6.6 goals allowed per start.
    • Current-season save rates are .891 Merilainen and .918 Askarov, better than some recent goal results.
  9. Vancouver Canucks to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +154 on DraftKings

    Always winsDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 83% of moneyline tickets backed San Jose, yet the Sharks moved from -198 to -185.
    • The price moved toward Vancouver despite the public majority, the required resistance signal.
    • San Jose’s current -185 is materially shorter than the public report’s earlier -198, creating a contrarian entry on Vancouver.
    • Vancouver is 3-10-1 and 1-4 in its last five; San Jose is 6-6-1.
  10. Vancouver Canucks first-period spread +0.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Canucks +0.5 is the cheaper protected side at 61¢ versus Sharks +0.5 at 72¢.
    • The edge sits exactly at the 6-point threshold and is only a small adjustment over the quoted price.
  11. San Jose Sharks −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vancouver confirmed Leevi Merilainen with Thatcher Demko out; the model applies the brief's +0.3-goal backup adjustment.
    • Blended goal means are approximately San Jose 4.25 and Vancouver 3.27 after the empty-net uplift; the goal-difference tail gives 42.0% at 2+.
    • San Jose's moneyline is -175 to -167 across US books, clearing the -140 gate; its -1.5 prices are 40.8%-43.5% implied, above the exchange cost.
    • The edge is marginal: roughly 1.4 points above the captured sharp puck-line probability, so model error can erase the 4% threshold.
  12. Goal in first 10 min
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Meriläinen owns a .9004 save percentage and 3.35 GAA; Askarov is at .8984 and 3.13 GAA.
    • First-period Over 0.5 is quoted at 87¢; a 52% first-ten estimate is coherently lower.
    • Vancouver's 3.07 goals per game includes a recent six-goal, 33-shot outburst, widening variance.

Questions

Who won Canucks vs. Sharks?

The Sharks won 3–2 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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