Updated
FinalStadio Artemio Franchi · Firenze
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAPO | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| FIOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 2.5 48¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Ladder tail-sum is 2.73 goals through the Over 5.5 rung, roughly 2.8 including the unquoted tail, versus 2.62 projection.
Two NilUp 1% return this season · 599 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-2 on this game · −31% return
- Napoli spread regular time −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionUp 5% last 30 days - Total goals over 2.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Ladder tail-sum is 2.73 goals through the Over 5.5 rung, roughly 2.8 including the unquoted tail, versus 2.62 projection.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, below the 12-game top-coverage tier; variance remains meaningful.
- Napoli spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Serie A sample: 32 of 45 matches ended 0 or 1 goal apart; only 5 of 45 were 3+ margins, supporting explicit rung pricing.
- The xG sample is only 10 matches per side; a four-point disagreement can be model noise.
Questions
Who won Napoli vs. Fiorentina?
Fiorentina won 1-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.