FinalDacia Arena · Udine
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| UDIN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCagliari win 27¢
Why Low Tide Line likes it: Model coverage is complete: form, xG, ratings and model probabilities are all present; minimum xG history is nine matches.
Low Tide LineDown 7% this season · 324 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −7% return
- Match total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Over 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- lambda total is 3.01 (1.43 home + 1.58 away) against the 2.5-goal rung.
- lambda_home 1.43, lambda_away 1.58, dc_rho -0.05; xG coverage is 9 matches for Udinese and 9 for Cagliari.
- shaped market was absent from the complete ProphetX board tonight, so this is totals-only.
- Only 9 xG-covered matches per side support the lambdas; small-sample calibration could be wrong.
- Match total over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Feature coverage is complete; both teams have 9 prior xG matches in the projection.
- Live Pinnacle reference is over/under 2.2 at -105/-105, directionally agreeing with the over.
- Five-minute movement is effectively flat, not running against the projection.
- Pinnacle's 2.2 line is not identical to the Kalshi 2.5 threshold, so line translation adds uncertainty.
- Cagliari win+270%Won
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model coverage is complete: form, xG, ratings and model probabilities are all present; minimum xG history is nine matches.
- Related Pinnacle two-way pricing makes Cagliari roughly 38.5%, directionally supporting the projection; exact 3-way pricing is venue self-reference.
- Global flow is directionally supportive, while captured Kalshi movement is flat rather than contradicting the position.
- The 13.71-point gap is large enough to warrant caution about unverified lineup news or a projection miss.
Questions
Who won Cagliari vs. Udinese?
Cagliari won 1-0 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.