FinalStadio Ennio Tardini · Parma
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| GENO | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| PARM | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals over 2.5 38¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Projected total is 2.84 versus a roughly 2.21-goal Poisson-equivalent Kalshi price at the 2.5 rung.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-4 on this game · +25% return
- Over 2.5 Total Goals+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Low Tide LineWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- ProphetX's adjacent over 1.5 is -184 (64.79¢), also below the model's roughly 77.5% probability, supporting broad underpricing of goals.
- ProphetX's complete board listed no BTTS-shaped market for this event, so the qualified contract is the 2.5-goal over.
- The materialized feature row was computed through 2025-12-29, roughly nine months before kickoff; current squad and team-strength changes may invalidate the lambdas.
Low Tide Line- Projected goal intensities are 1.36 for Parma and 1.49 for Genoa, totaling 2.85.
- The warehouse feature timestamp is older than the current match cycle, so the model may not fully reflect September form.
- Match total goals over 2.5+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is 2.84 versus a roughly 2.21-goal Poisson-equivalent Kalshi price at the 2.5 rung.
- Goals are high variance: a 0-0 or 1-1 finish loses despite the model's chance-generation read.
- Genoa spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambdas are Parma 1.36 and Genoa 1.49 with dc_rho -0.05; the independent margin build and the model's -0.5 AH confirm both point Genoa.
- No push: Genoa must win in regular time; a draw or Parma win loses the full stake.
- No Goal first-team-to-score NO+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Sharp anchor: Pinnacle total 2.0, Over -107 / Under -103; model coverage is 10 matches per team, minimum 10.
- Pinnacle's 2.0 total is lower than the model's 2.85 combined lambda; the sharp anchor conflicts with the projection.
- Both Teams To Score+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Parma scoring read 73.7%: midpoint of 1.02 opp-adjusted xG-for and Genoa's 1.64 xG-against; 10 xG matches.
- Genoa scoring read 75.4%: midpoint of 1.26 opp-adjusted xG-for and Parma's 1.55 xG-against; 10 xG matches.
- No independent sharp BTTS price was captured: the board had Kalshi BTTS but only sportsbook moneyline, so self-reference caps this at LEAN.
- Genoa @ Parma under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −192 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Venue-specific recent totals average 1.8 goals: Parma home 2.0, Genoa away 1.6.
- Parma's last 10 went under 2.5 in 8 games; Genoa's did so in 6 of 10.
- Fresh form through September 14-15 shows both teams at 2-1-7/2-3-5 overall.
- Starting elevens are not posted, so lineup or goalkeeper changes remain unknown.
Show all 8 picks
- Genoa spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posted no exact >1.5 rung; Kalshi is the structural reference.
- Genoa goal-difference tail is approximately 19.7%; 45 prior Serie A matches produced 8 away margins of at least two, 17.8%.
- No independent sharp price exists at this exact rung; Pinnacle only showed a 0.0 handicap, so this is venue self-reference.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- One-leg ticket. Stake 0.5 units. No parlay tax.
- The warehouse model projects over 2.5 at 54.3%. This contradicts the flow.
Questions
Who won Genoa vs. Parma?
Parma won 2-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.