FinalStadion An der Alten Försterei · Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
0–0Final
FC Union Berlin
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UB | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 3.5 total goals 60¢
Why Open Play likes it: Model fair under 3.5 is approximately 74%; Dixon-Coles confirms a lower-scoring lean with under 2.5 at 55.8%.
Open PlayDown 12% this season · 124 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-1 on this game · +114% return
- Both Teams To Score NO+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Nets, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Both Nets- Projection: Union scoring read ≈64% (sqrt of 1.27 oppadj xGF and Dortmund 0.81 xGA); Dortmund ≈78% (1.73 xGF and Union 1.35 xGA).
- Their independent product gives BTTS-YES ≈50%, so BTTS-NO ≈50%; this is not a symmetric both-sides-score-freely matchup.
- The 50% BTTS estimate is a simple independent-side calculation, not a calibrated match model.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG: Union Berlin 1.27 for, Dortmund 0.81 against.
- Model expected goals are only 0.77 for Union and 1.68 for Dortmund.
- FanDuel's paired BTTS market strongly favors Yes at -174; the model may be miscalibrated.
- Under 3.5 total goals+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair under 3.5 is approximately 74%; Dixon-Coles confirms a lower-scoring lean with under 2.5 at 55.8%.
- Rest and tempo support the under: Dortmund have 3 days' rest versus Union's 7; PPDA is not low for both sides.
- FanDuel same-rung under 3.5 is -168; ProphetX offers 60.0c, with $25 offered at that price.
- Exactly 10 xG-backed matches per team is a moderate, not deep, sample; the error bar is wide.
- Tie 1st Half+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 31 of 72 recent Bundesliga goals came by minute 45, a 43.1% share.
- Kalshi 1H tie is 35c mid versus 22c for the full-time tie.
- The 43.1% share uses 20 recent fixtures and 72 goals; sampling error is material.
- FC Union Berlin spread +1+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- rest decay, Dortmund has 3 rest days, Union 7; the four-day home edge meets Dortmund's congestion flag.
- Confirmed-XI gate passed: the live lineup feed lists 11 starters for each team before pricing.
- Pinnacle showed Union +1 at +107; ProphetX offers the slightly better price.
- Rest can be overstated: Dortmund's confirmed XI still includes its principal core, and no travel adjustment is recorded.
- Borussia Dortmund spread NO 1.5+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Union xGF 1.27 and Dortmund xGA 0.81; Dortmund xGF 1.73 and Union xGA 1.35; Dixon-Coles lambdas are Union 0.77, Dortmund 1.68.
- Lambda cross-check estimates Dortmund margin >1.5 at 32.9%, so NO at 67.1%; this is 5.1 percentage points above the 62c venue price.
- Dortmund's three-day rest versus Union's seven is a meaningful favorite-cover risk.
- Borussia Dortmund correct score 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is FC Union Berlin; model key 0-1 maps to Kalshi contract “Borussia Dortmund wins 1-0”.
- live draw lower bound 16¢ is below the Kalshi three-way tie price of 21¢.
- Starting XIs are not posted; Dortmund has three rest days and nine sidelined players in the preview count.
Show all 8 picks
- Total goals under 3.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi ladder: Over 2.5 YES mid 0.65 and Over 3.5 YES mid 0.41; the cumulative ladder implies roughly 3.3 goals, above the 2.58 projection.
- Pinnacle posts 3.2 goals (Under -117), but that is not the same rung; it is context only, not substituted for Kalshi 3.5. Edge class: PROJECTION; band: LEAN.
- Only 10 xG matches per side, below the brief's 12-game top-band threshold; the projection may be noisier than the market.
- Draw+355%Won
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Underlying expected goals are 0.77 for Union and 1.68 for Dortmund, preserving draw mass in a low-to-moderate scoring setup.
- The current lineup feed lists all 22 starters; Dortmund's three-day rest and congestion flag can compress its away edge.
- Model fair price is about 25¢; the live Tie contract is offered at 22¢, a modest positive gap.
- Dortmund's stronger away form and 8-1-1 away record in the preview make an away win the main failure path.
Questions
Who won Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Union Berlin?
FC Union Berlin won 0-0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.