FinalVeltins-Arena · Gelsenkirchen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SCHA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFSV Mainz 05 win 41¢
Why Sharp Cohort Soccer likes it: All 27 qualifiers are month-positive, 0 decaying; official XI is confirmed, while the market moved only 2 points toward Mainz since opening.
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 12% return this season · 10 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −51% return
- Match total over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 72.3% over 2.5 from Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.70 home and 2.04 away.
- xG supports the projection: Schalke home xG 1.72; Mainz away xG 2.52 and opponent-adjusted xGF 2.18.
- Coherence: model and cohort favor over; Pinnacle's live 2.8 total agrees directionally, while Kalshi price drift has moved slightly against us.
- The 15.3-point projection gap could reflect model miscalibration or a fixture-specific input the warehouse misses.
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 0.58 price implies roughly a 3.0-goal Poisson mean; 3.24 projects about 63% over 2.5, a modest positive projection.
- Secondary tempo check: PPDA 11.65 Schalke / 11.98 Mainz, field tilt .476/.565 and directness .734/.773 support transition chances.
- Ten xG matches per side are below the 12-game top tier; early-season roster turnover makes the estimate noisy.
- FSV Mainz 05 win+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- All 27 qualifiers are month-positive, 0 decaying; official XI is confirmed, while the market moved only 2 points toward Mainz since opening.
- Mainz lost four high-usage regulars in the warehouse context; a tactical or role issue could erase the model edge.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blending Schalke 1.42 opp-adjusted xG-for with Mainz 1.77 xG-against gives Schalke 79.7% to score.
- Mainz projects 82.6% to score: 2.18 opp-adjusted xG-for blended with Schalke 1.31 xG-against.
- Symmetric BTTS case: both sides clear roughly 80% scoring probability; product is 65.8% BTTS-YES.
- Only 10 xG-covered matches per side; one-match finishing variance can dominate.
- FSV Mainz 05 spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- High coverage: xG true with 10 matches for both Schalke and Mainz; coverage_reason is fully covered.
- Model lambdas are Schalke 1.71 and Mainz 2.04; Mainz goal difference ≥2 is 26.4%.
- Season Bundesliga sample: 9 draws, 17 one-goal margins, 7 two-goal margins, 13 margins of three-plus across 46 matches.
- Mainz may win narrowly, draw, or lose; the one-goal and zero-goal-difference mass remains substantial.
Questions
Who won FSV Mainz 05 vs. Schalke 04?
FSV Mainz 05 won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.