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FinalWohninvest Weserstadion · Bremen
Paderborn
2–2Final
Werder Bremen
Score by period
Team12T
PADE202
WERD022

Top model pick, graded

Won

Paderborn NO 79¢

Why Team Sheet likes it: Confirmed XI observed 05:44:07 PDT: Sebastian Klaas absent at 0.55 xG/90; Sven Michel absent at 0.70 xG/90.

Team SheetDown 1% this season · 75 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-8 on this game · −32% return

  1. Paderborn to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Regression Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • confirmed XI gives Paderborn 2.12 attacking xG versus Werder’s 1.67.
    • Paderborn’s regular starter Marvin Pieringer is out; Steffen Tigges starts after 0 prior-six starts but owns 0.60 xG/90.
    • Most likely loss is a draw: ProphetX’s 2-way contract loses for both sides on a draw.
    Regression Pairs
    • Six-match xG: Paderborn 1.32 for / 1.42 against; Werder 1.44 / 1.62, with Paderborn's process slightly better by xG difference.
    • Results diverged from process: Paderborn -0.33 actual goal difference/game vs -0.11 xG difference; Werder +0.50 vs -0.18.
    • Most likely loss: Werder's finishing edge repeats; its actual goal difference beats xG by 0.68 goals/game over this window.
  2. PaderbornLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Warehouse model makes Paderborn the away winner 45.3%, versus 28.0% for Werder Bremen.
    • Model expected goals favor Paderborn 1.53, 1.15 despite the home venue.
    • Paderborn’s recent 10-match form is only 3-2-5 away, with 19 goals conceded.
    Number Earned
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Paderborn 1.31 to 1.00; raw xG also favors Paderborn 1.50 to 1.24.
    • Paderborn’s adjusted xGA is 1.55, slightly better than Werder Bremen’s 1.57.
    • Soccer’s draw probability is 26.6%, making a three-way underdog contract highly variance-sensitive.
  3. Match total under 3.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted rates imply Werder 1.28 goals and Paderborn 1.44, a 2.72-goal total.
    • Own Poisson estimate gives roughly 71% for 0, 3 goals; model lambdas 1.15 and 1.53 are closely aligned.
    • Pinnacle's sharp anchor is a 3-goal total, with Under 3 at +101, supporting a sub-3.5 range.
    • Lineups are not confirmed 12 hours out; six Bremen and four Paderborn absences are reported, but no top-scorer or goalkeeper doubt is identified.
  4. Paderborn NOFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed XI observed 05:44:07 PDT: Sebastian Klaas absent at 0.55 xG/90; Sven Michel absent at 0.70 xG/90.
    • Desk lambda projection: Paderborn 1.52 before news, 0.27 after subtracting 1.25 xG/90.
    • Kalshi Paderborn moneyline: last venue change 05:37:51.09 PDT; confirmed XI observation 05:44:07 PDT. Test passed.
    • The 1.25 xG/90 subtraction is mechanical; overlap and replacement quality may overstate the shock.
  5. Paderborn wins 1st HalfLong shot
    +376%Won

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Using that share gives first-half lambdas of 0.50 for Bremen and 0.66 for Paderborn, with Dixon-Coles rho -0.05.
    • Kalshi prices Paderborn at 20.5c in both the first-half and full-match winner markets, an internal coherence violation because first-half away win probability should be lower.
    • The first-half share is a 74-goal sample and the full-match lambdas are model inputs, not observed first-half rates.
  6. Werder Bremen spread NO 1.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
Show all 10 picks
  1. SC Paderborn 07 wins 1-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home is Werder Bremen; model key 0-1 maps to “SC Paderborn 07 wins 1-0.”
    • Correct-score outcomes are high variance; this is one of 30 exclusive contracts.
  2. Total goals under 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG gives Werder 1.28 (home xGF 1.00, Paderborn xGA 1.56) plus Paderborn 1.44 (away xGF 1.31, Werder xGA 1.57): expected total 2.72.
    • Pinnacle independently posts only a different 3.0 rung (-125 over / +113 under), so there is no same-rung sharp validation.
  3. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Werder scoring read 73.9%: opponent-adjusted xG-for 1.00 blended with Paderborn xG-against 1.69; 10 xG matches.
    • Paderborn scoring read 79.5%: opponent-adjusted xG-for 1.31 blended with Werder xG-against 1.86; 10 xG matches.
    • Symmetric BTTS case, not an asymmetric shutout setup; independent scoring reads imply BTTS YES 58.8%, NO 41.2%.
    • The two scoring events are not independent; match state and tactical choices can materially change BTTS odds.
  4. Paderborn moneyline (2 Way)Long shot
    0%Push

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is complete: model, xG and ratings flags are true with 10 minimum xG matches; lambdas are 1.15 home and 1.52 away.
    • the live lineup feed lists 11 starters for both Werder Bremen and Paderborn.
    • Pinnacle's fresh three-way Paderborn price is +346; this play relies on the warehouse-model gap, not payout alone.
    • No travel, short-rest, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shaped Long Haul pillar cleared; this is capped LEAN/off-thesis.

Questions

Who won Paderborn vs. Werder Bremen?

Werder Bremen won 2-2 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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