FinalBayArena · Leverkusen
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FRE | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BAYE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 2.5 33¢
Why Two Nil likes it: opponent-adjusted xG gives Leverkusen 2.16 for/1.24 against and Freiburg 2.00 for/0.79 against, with 10 xG matches each.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −46% return
- SC Freiburg to win−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Coaches Corner- Feature baseline gives Freiburg 49.9% win probability versus 25.7% for Leverkusen.
- Julian Schuster has a 100-game continuity edge over Carles Martínez’s newly formed Leverkusen setup.
- Leverkusen are unbeaten at home, winning 4-0 and 2-0 without conceding.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Freiburg are 8-1-1 away in the 10-match form sample; Leverkusen are 6-2-2 at home.
- Freiburg's opponent-adjusted xGA is 0.79 versus Leverkusen's 1.24.
- Leverkusen's home side remains the market favorite, and transfer-driven team-strength changes may be underweighted.
Long Haul- no qualifying travel, rest, artificial-surface, aggregate, or draw-shape pillar; capped at Lean.
- the 3-way sharp away quote is +391; sportsbook context supports value direction but is not the placement venue.
- Confirmed XIs are not posted at pricing time; late rotation could materially change the projection.
- Total goals under 2.5+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-adjusted xG gives Leverkusen 2.16 for/1.24 against and Freiburg 2.00 for/0.79 against, with 10 xG matches each.
- Pinnacle independently posts a 3.2-goal total (-109 over/-101 under), supporting a lower total than Kalshi's roughly 3.4-goal ladder implication.
- Leverkusen/Freiburg have aggressive PPDA readings of 11.47 and 13.52, with field tilt 0.59 and 0.60; transition pace can push this over.
- SC Freiburg spread +10%Push
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's -1 spread plus 3.5 total implies roughly 2.25 home / 1.25 away goals; the warehouse xG lambdas invert that at 1.22 / 1.78.
- Opponent-adjusted process still favors Freiburg's attack/defense profile: 2.00 npxG-for and 0.79 npxG-against versus Leverkusen's 2.16 and 1.24.
- Coverage is clean and competitive-only: both teams have 10/10 xG matches, zero friendlies, and the rolling actual goal-difference gap versus xG is modest rather than artificially inflated.
- Confirmed XIs are not posted; the lineup surface returned zero rows, while Leverkusen has 10 and Freiburg 4 players sidelined in a three-day-rest spot.
- SC Freiburg wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Measured Bundesliga first-half goal share was 77 of 194 goals, 39.7%.
- The model uses only 10 xG-rated matches per side and a season-level goal-share estimate.
- SC Freiburg spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw inputs: Leverkusen 2.50 xGF/1.32 xGA; Freiburg 2.18 xGF/0.85 xGA.
- Opp-adjusted inputs are 2.16/1.24 for Leverkusen and 2.00/0.79 for Freiburg; blended rates are approximately 1.47 and 1.62 goals.
- No independent same-rung sharp handicap exists: the sportsbook snapshot is Leverkusen -1.0, not the Freiburg +1.5 contract, and cannot be substituted.
- SC Freiburg wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Bayer 04 Leverkusen; model key 1-2 maps to the contract “SC Freiburg wins 2-1”.
- Away lambda 1.78 exceeds home lambda 1.22; 1-2 is the model’s second-ranked score.
- No sharp correct-score reference; the venue grid cannot be normalized from its 72c live sum.
Show all 8 picks
- Total goals under 3.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts an adjacent 3.25 total at -101 under, while Kalshi's live rung is 3.5.
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Bayer xGF 2.16 / xGA 1.24; Freiburg xGF 2.00 / xGA 0.79.
- Poisson-style conversion estimates under 3.5 near 62.7%, but soccer totals can be overdispersed and a 2-2 score loses.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: geometric blend gives Leverkusen 74.2% to score and Freiburg 80.3%; BTTS-YES read 59.6%, NO read 40.4%.
- 10 xG matches for each side; symmetric scoring case, not an asymmetric weak-attacker/elite-defense setup.
- no independent sharp BTTS quote was posted for this fixture; edge class PROJECTION; band LEAN.
- The independent read is only about 4.4 percentage points above the 36c NO price, so variance dominates.
Questions
Who won SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2-1 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.