FinalURSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde · Spiesen-Elversberg
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| ELVE | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonElversberg to win 53¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: confirmed XI lifts Elversberg attacking xG to 3.38 versus 2.83 usual-XI baseline (+0.55).
Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −12% return
- Elversberg to win+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- confirmed XI lifts Elversberg attacking xG to 3.38 versus 2.83 usual-XI baseline (+0.55).
- Maurice Krattenmacher starts after zero prior-six starts; his six-match sample shows 1.05 xG/90 in 170 minutes.
- Most likely loss is a draw: the 2-way Elversberg contract loses on a draw.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Elversberg's home form: 5-2-3, plus-7 goal difference in 10 matches.
- Augsburg's away form is 5-3-2, but its opponent-adjusted defensive xGA is 1.79.
- The warehouse model is Dixon-Coles and its feature cutoff is October 10, not matchday.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Elversberg 1.46 xGF/1.38 xGA (10 GP); Augsburg 1.61 xGF/1.79 xGA (10 GP); projected total 3.12.
- Both teams have only 10 xG-backed matches, below the desk’s top coverage tier; the edge is therefore capped at LEAN.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Elversberg scores at 80.3% and FC Augsburg at 77.6% from paired xG rates; joint BTTS-YES read is 62.3%, so BTTS-NO is 37.7%.
- no independent sportsbook BTTS price was posted on the board; Kalshi is the sole live binary reference, so this is capped at LEAN. Edge class: PROJECTION.
- This is a symmetric both-sides-score-freely matchup, not the stronger asymmetric BTTS-NO setup; either attack can erase the edge.
- Elversberg spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC lambdas: Elversberg 1.93, Augsburg 1.65; xG coverage is 10 matches for each side.
- Recent 60 Bundesliga matches show 20/60 home wins by 2+ goals, supporting a lumpy rather than smooth ladder.
- The 60-match Bundesliga sample is competition-wide rather than Elversberg-specific; personnel changes and model calibration could shift the tail.
Questions
Who won FC Augsburg vs. Elversberg?
Elversberg won 4-3 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.