FinalFirstBank Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 14 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| VAN | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVanderbilt Commodores to win −160
Why D1 Winner likes it: Bayesian-shrunk efficiency composite favors Vanderbilt: 2025 prior EPA offense 0.32 vs 0.16 and defense allowed 0.05 vs 0.12.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-5 on this game · +3% return
- Vanderbilt Commodores to win+63%Won
Taken at −160 on BetMGM
2 modelsD1 Winner, Resting MoneyWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Bayesian-shrunk efficiency composite favors Vanderbilt: 2025 prior EPA offense 0.32 vs 0.16 and defense allowed 0.05 vs 0.12.
- Home venue supplies the situational edge; rest is nearly even at Vanderbilt 7 days versus NC State 8.
- Only two 2026 games per team; current EPA is noisy and Vanderbilt's schedule includes two FCS opponents.
Resting Money- Two measures agree: thin at quote and deeper total; backing Vanderbilt, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference only; resting quotes can cancel or reprice before execution.
- Game 1H total over 23.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 season-to-date averages are 29.78 sec/play and 11 drives for Vanderbilt; 28.47 sec/play and 12 drives for NC State.
- Both starting quarterbacks are resolved live: Jared Curtis for Vanderbilt and CJ Bailey for NC State; weather inputs are benign enough for no drive-count cut.
- Only two games per team feed the pace, PROE, explosive-rate, PPD, and drive estimates; NC State’s 73-0 win makes its 3.33 PPD volatile.
- North Carolina State +3−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- whole-game North Carolina State +3 pushes on a Vanderbilt 3-point win; +3.5 wins that outcome.
- Game total under 52−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency/pace lean lower: NC State averaged 0.22 offensive EPA/play over two games but plays at 30.45 seconds; Vanderbilt averaged 0.10 EPA/play at 25.76 seconds.
- QB gate cleared: last-game pass-attempt leaders were CJ Bailey and Jared Curtis; current game coverage confirms both are the expected starters.
- Most likely loss: Curtis's first-start variance combines with NC State's explosive offense to produce a shootout above 52.
- NC State Wolfpack spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NC State 2026 regular-season offensive EPA/play is +0.22 versus Vanderbilt's +0.10.
- NC State defensive EPA/play is -0.12 versus Vanderbilt's +0.02; the two-game sample still points toward the dog.
- Key-number density: 3-point margins occurred 962 times in 10,560 CFB games (9.1%); +3.5 crosses the primary margin.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt wins by 4 or more, making the key-number cushion irrelevant.
- Vanderbilt Commodores 1H spread over 2.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own 2024-26 sample: 2,042 games, signed-margin SD 22.76; sqrt scaling gives 1H SD 16.09, not 11.38.
- adjacent Vanderbilt over 3.5 is 44¢, while the 2.5 YES rung is slightly rich.
- cfb_game weather gust and precipitation are null; NOAA fetch timed out, so no weather possession adjustment was possible.
Show all 11 picks
- Jared Curtis under 214.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model estimate: 64% under versus 53.3% implied at -114, an 10.7-point margin.
- Curtis stayed under 214.5 in both 2026 appearances: 60 and 210 passing yards.
- NC State ranks 26th nationally in opponent passing yards allowed at 155.0 per game.
- A few explosive completions could clear 214.5 despite the favorable defensive profile.
- NC State Wolfpack spread +40%Push
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current 2026 sample (2 games each): NC State defense averages -0.12 EPA/play allowed vs Vanderbilt +0.02.
- NC State offense averages +0.22 EPA/play versus Vanderbilt's +0.10; explosive rates are 13.9% versus 12.5%.
- Fallback 2025 blend uses 13 games per team and preserves the NC State defensive edge; prior-season fallback is flagged.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's home offense creates explosive plays and wins by 5 or more.
- Over 7.5 1Q points scored+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NC State averaged 61.5 offensive plays and 3.33 points per drive across its two 2026 games.
- Vanderbilt averaged 68.0 plays; both teams’ recent pace profiles support enough opening possessions.
- NC State posted 0.22 offensive EPA/play; Vanderbilt allowed 0.02 defensive EPA/play, creating a favorable script mismatch.
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality and early-season efficiency are noisy.
- NC State Wolfpack wins 1st Half+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NC State averaged +0.22 offensive EPA/play across two games versus Vanderbilt's +0.10.
- NC State's defensive EPA allowed averaged -0.12 versus Vanderbilt's +0.02, favoring the Wolfpack's opening script.
- Live game-central reporting names CJ Bailey as NC State's expected quarterback; Vanderbilt has named Jared Curtis its starter, clearing the QB gate.
- Only two 2026 games per team; NC State's EPA and 3.33 points/drive are heavily inflated by a 73-0 Richmond win.
- NC State Wolfpack spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vanderbilt's two 2026 games show materially less offensive efficiency: +0.16 and +0.03 EPA/play, versus NC State's stronger current profile.
- The key-number dog fits the projection: NC State's explosive Week 2 profile is not fully reflected in a market still making Vanderbilt a short home favorite.
- Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's home field and a repeat of NC State's 34-8 loss at Virginia produce a Commodores win by 4 or more.
Questions
Who won NC State vs. Vanderbilt?
Vanderbilt won 35-31 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.