FinalJack Trice Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ISU | 21 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIowa State Cyclones spread −23.5 49¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Iowa State's recent five-game EPA profile is materially stronger: +0.12 offense and -0.04 defense versus Bowling Green's -0.02 and +0.08.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · +3% return
- Iowa State Cyclones spread −23.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Iowa State's recent five-game EPA profile is materially stronger: +0.12 offense and -0.04 defense versus Bowling Green's -0.02 and +0.08.
- A 23.5-point cover needs Iowa State to sustain separation; late-game backups create backdoor-cover risk.
- Iowa State Cyclones spread −24.5+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- RECOMMENDED Tier 2: Iowa State's home margin distribution and the BGSU defensive-efficiency weakness converge on the over-24.5 spread rung.
- Most likely loss: Iowa State wins by 24 or fewer; modeled margin is only about 23.8 with an approximately 17-point SD.
- Jaylen Raynor over 179.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official Iowa State primer identifies Raynor as the starting quarterback.
- Raynor cleared 179.5 passing yards in 9 of his last 10 appearances.
- Bowling Green ranks 116th of 143 teams in current pass defense, allowing 244.0 yards per game.
- Raynor's current Iowa State sample is only 1-of-2 over, with 16 and 19 attempts.
- Game total under 44.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB histogram: 44 points occurred 266/10,560; 43 occurred 156 and 46 occurred 109.
- Two-game EPA split favors a controlled total: Iowa State +0.09 offense/-0.15 defense; Bowling Green -0.13/+0.23.
- Pinnacle under 44 -117 and DraftKings under 43.5 -105 corroborate the lower-total projection.
- Two-game efficiency samples are thin; Iowa State's offense can create an early blowout and late scores.
- Iowa State Cyclones 1H win by over 13.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1,761 FBS regular-season games from 2024-25 produced a signed home-margin SD of 22.28; square-root half scaling gives 15.75 first-half SD and about 54.4% NO at 13.5.
- College margin mass is led by 3 (162 games), 7 (133), 10 (80), and 17 (72); 13.5 sits between measured masses, with no imported NFL key-number assumption.
- Bowling Green's Jay Kastantin has started both 2026 games and is identified as the QB in current previews, but there is no game-day official depth chart; a late change breaks the QB-dependent projection.
- 1H total over 23.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 two-game window: Iowa State averaged 7.0 first-half drives, Bowling Green 5.5; combined projection is 12.0 after a small weather possession cut versus 22.5 full-game drives.
- The sample is only two games per team; points per drive were 2.13 for Iowa State and 0.97 for Bowling Green, both opponent-dependent.
Questions
Who won Bowling Green vs. Iowa State?
Iowa State won 55-7 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.