FinalBill Snyder Family Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| KSU | 0 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKansas State Wildcats 1H wins by over 13.5 56¢
Why Early Cover likes it: Sharp full-game spread KSU -20.5 scales to +10.25 first-half mean; 20-mph gusts and 20% rain chance trim projection to +10.0.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +39% return
- Brandon White over 2.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at +102 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Touch share rose from 2/27 (7.4%) to 4/34 (11.8%) across 2 games; sample CV is 32%.
- Yards per reception fell from 10.0 to 7.25 (-27.5%) while share rose: usage-production divergence.
- PFF shows 97.4% route rate, 37 routes, 11 targets and 6 receptions through 2 games.
- Only 2 current-season games; the partial tier has no 2025 Brandon White same-role sample.
- Kansas State Wildcats 1H wins by over 13.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp full-game spread KSU -20.5 scales to +10.25 first-half mean; 20-mph gusts and 20% rain chance trim projection to +10.0.
- Only two 2026 games per team; K-State includes Nicholls and Tulane includes Duke/South Alabama.
- Over 10.5 1Q points scored−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected 1Q total is about 11.3 points; the script model is roughly 56% over.
- Kansas State averaged 4.04 points per drive across two games, with 74 and 71 offensive plays.
- Tulane averaged 23.9 seconds per play and showed a 15.4% explosive rate in Week 2, preserving an early-score path.
- Only two 2026 games per team; coverage is thin and opponent quality varies sharply.
- Game 1H total over 26.5+213%Won
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 28.9 projected first-half points versus the 26.5 threshold.
- Weather adjustment: 34% precipitation applies a 3.4% drive haircut; projected first-half drives remain 11.6.
- First-half drive baseline is 3.4 KSU points/drive and 1.4 Tulane points/drive; PROE/explosiveness add 4%.
- Q1 already has 7 points; the live clock feed disagrees between 0:25 and 0:00, so remaining-drive count is uncertain.
- Tulane Green Wave spread +20.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 KSU's 71-3 Nicholls result inflates its two-game profile; a non-FCS matchup read projects roughly a 19-20 point margin.
- Tulane lost by 14 at Duke and beat South Alabama by 4; that schedule profile supports staying inside 20.5 more than the raw KSU blowout suggests.
- Pinnacle also posted Tulane +20.5, at -103; ProphetX improves the same main number to +104.
- Kansas State's defense produced -0.49 EPA/play against Washington State; another early defensive-driven runaway defeats the cover.
Questions
Who won Tulane vs. Kansas State?
Kansas State won 31-20 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.