FinalWembley Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| KU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return
- Kansas +5 spread (push at exactly 5)−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kansas +5 pushes on an exact five-point Arizona State win; Kansas +5.5 wins that outcome, so the whole-number contract is never worse.
- ProphetX prices Kansas +5 at -104 (50.98¢) versus Kansas +5.5 at -106 (51.46¢): the push-bearing rung is 2 American cents cheaper.
- The market may correct the rung relationship quickly; no claim is made that Kansas covers outright.
- Total points over 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two measures agree; book levels are tied 3-3. Raw size is substantial, so this is not a handful-of-dollars signal.
- Directional check: backing over, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference can be stale, canceled, or concentrated despite the displayed depth; this is not independent confirmation.
- Arizona State Sun Devils 1H spread over 2.5 NO−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game ASU -5.5; half-line baseline +2.75, plus a small early-scoring adjustment.
- College margin SD is 14.77 across 1,853 completed FBS games from 2024-25; sqrt scaling preserves first-half tails.
- Only two 2026 games per team; EPA and points-per-drive are noisy with thin opponent-adjusted context.
- Over 7.5 1Q points scored−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ASU averaged 17.5 first-quarter points across two 2026 games; Kansas averaged 3.0.
- ASU's two-game averages: 70.0 offensive plays, 27.3 seconds per play, +14.6% PROE and 3.63 points per drive.
- Kansas's defense allowed 0 first-quarter points in each prior game, but ASU's aggressive script and .185 explosive rate create a materially different test.
- The first-quarter sample is only two games per team: ASU's results were 28 and 7, while Kansas's were 6 and 0.
- Game 1H total over 23.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed starters are ASU Cutter Boley and Kansas Isaiah Marshall; both teams' 2026 box-score plurality supports the same starters.
- First-half drives average 7.0 for ASU and 6.0 for Kansas across the two-game season-to-date windows: 13 combined drives.
- Blended offensive pace is 27.60 seconds/play (ASU 27.33, Kansas 27.87); no verified high-wind cut is applied, so the 13-drive baseline stands.
- Weather fields are null in cfb_game; fresh snippets indicate light/13-mph wind but possible rain later, and timing of precipitation is unresolved.
- Kansas Jayhawks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The model projects only a 1.30-point Kansas deficit, far closer than the market's Arizona State -200 framing.
- Kansas has official outs including quarterbacks Cole Ballard and Jaylen Mason; the predictor's injury adjustment is not independently verified.
Questions
Who won Arizona State vs. Kansas?
Arizona State won 24-17 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.