FinalUFCU Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 7 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 35 |
| TXST | 21 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTexas State Bobcats to win 58¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −30% return
- North Texas Mean Green wins 1st half−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsFront Runner, Kickoff ScriptWhy 2 models like it
Front Runner- Two-game 2026 profile: North Texas has +0.16 offensive EPA/play and 2.63 points/drive versus Texas State’s -0.04 and 1.44.
- The derived-reference bar was set at a 10-point probability cushion; estimated 55% clears it by 15 points.
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality makes the EPA and points-per-drive gap unstable.
Kickoff Script- 13.0 average first-half points for North Texas versus 12.0 for Texas State across two 2026 games.
- North Texas averaged 2.42 first-half points per drive; Texas State averaged 1.80.
- Only two games per team; opponent quality is extreme: Indiana/UNLV for UNT and Texas/UTSA for Texas State.
- Texas State Bobcats to win+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Over 62.5 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Possession inputs favor scoring: current average plays are 71.5 for North Texas and 77.0 for Texas State; paces are 31.0 and 26.1 seconds per play.
- Current explosive rates are .1477 and .0974; prior regular-season points per drive were 3.78 and 3.16. Board: RECOMMENDED, Tier 2.
- Recent current-game totals average 60.25, below 62.5; Texas State's offense could again stall against North Texas.
- North Texas Mean Green first-half spread over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game 2026 FBS sample has full-game margin SD 19.95; sqrt-half scaling gives 1H SD 14.10, not 9.97.
- Pinnacle's full-game Texas State -3 scales to the same +1.5 home first-half mean.
- North Texas averages 0.16 EPA/play and 0.15 explosive rate versus Texas State's -0.04 and 0.10; official notes name Tayven Jackson and Brad Jackson as starters.
- Only two games per team; EPA and points-per-drive samples are noisy and opponent adjustment is limited.
- 1H total under 30.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- North Texas averaged 2.63 points per drive; Texas State averaged 1.44 across the two 2026 games.
- Fast Texas State pace can create six-plus possessions and overwhelm the lower scoring-rate sample.
- North Texas Mean Green total points over 62+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 EPA: North Texas offense +0.16/play versus Texas State -0.04; Bobcats defense allows +0.32/play.
- 2026 PFF: North Texas offense 75.1/pass 90.3 versus Texas State 66.5/pass 59.9; live check listed both expected QBs.
- Texas State scored only 33 points in two games; stalled drives can leave 62 unreachable.
Show all 7 picks
- North Texas Mean Green to win−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 EPA through two games: North Texas averages +0.16 offensive EPA/play versus Texas State -0.04.
- North Texas is superior in current success rate (47.6% vs 46.0%), explosiveness (14.6% vs 9.7%), and points/drive (2.63 vs 1.44).
- 2025 baseline also favors North Texas: +0.31 offensive EPA/play and -0.02 defensive EPA allowed versus Texas State's +0.23 and +0.08.
- Most likely loss: Texas State's home field and a defensive rebound erase North Texas's matchup-quality edge.
Questions
Who won North Texas vs. Texas State?
Texas State won 49-35 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.