FinalOhio Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| OSU | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 59 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKent State Golden Flashes over 59.5 total 47¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: The US contract is open, quoted, and tradable at 47¢; global Polymarket shows a 47¢/48¢ book.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-5 on this game · −6% return
- Ohio State Buckeyes spread −53+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- 2026 efficiency: Ohio State +0.33 offensive EPA/play; Kent State allows +0.31 defensive EPA/play.
- PFF's 2026 team card is 92.4 Ohio State vs 56.3 Kent State; Pinnacle's -53 +104 reference corroborates the spread location.
- Most likely loss: Ohio State builds a large lead, then reserves concede a late Kent State touchdown and fail to clear 53.
Long Way Home- Pinnacle also posts Ohio State -53, at +104; ProphetX improves that same-line reference by eight American-odds points.
- Most likely loss: Ohio State builds a lead, rotates heavily, and Kent State scores a late backdoor touchdown.
- Kent State Golden Flashes over 59.5 total+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The US contract is open, quoted, and tradable at 47¢; global Polymarket shows a 47¢/48¢ book.
- Sportsbook consensus is 58.5 points, making 59.5 a higher threshold than the main book line.
- Under 58.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - Ohio State Buckeyes 1H wins by over 34.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle Ohio State -53 full-game; half-mean base is 26.5 before front-loaded adjustment.
- Own 2024-26 regular sample: 1,950 games, full-game SD 15.74; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 11.13.
- Model mean is 31.0 from the sharp base plus current two-game points-per-drive and explosive-rate inputs; NO probability is 62%.
- Only two 2026 games per team; efficiency adjustment and opponent correction are thin.
- Game total under 59−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX under 59 is 50.00c versus under 59.5 at 51.46c; the push rung is 1.46c cheaper.
- Game under 16.5 1Q points−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects roughly 13, 15 first-quarter points from recent pace and points-per-drive inputs.
- Ohio State points per drive fell from 4.67 to 2.09 across its first two games; Kent State averages 1.17.
- Recent offensive pace is 28.52 seconds per play for Ohio State and 31.13 for Kent State, limiting early possessions.
- The 2026 sample is only two games per team, so this is a low-coverage projection.
Show all 8 picks
- Game 1H total under 34.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- two-game window gives 31.44 weighted seconds/play for Kent State; Ohio State's latest valid pace is 28.52.
- No independent first-half sharp line; the 32.1 reference is derived and therefore capped at LEAN.
- Ohio State −52.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjacent Ohio State -52 pushes at exactly 52; ProphetX quotes -108 versus +108 on -52.5.
- An Ohio State-Kent State blowout could have a higher exact-52 margin probability; no projection is being claimed.
Questions
Who won Kent State vs. Ohio State?
Ohio State won 59-3 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.