FinalDonald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 7 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 45 |
| ARK | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGeorgia Bulldogs 1st-half winner 88¢
Why Front Runner likes it: Three-way ladder sanity check: UGA 87.5¢, Arkansas 8.5¢, tie 4.5¢; normalized UGA is 87.1%.
Front RunnerDown 19% this season · 62 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −39% return
- Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks under 54.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under moved from roughly 49c on the fresh buys to 50.5c current on the global book; the US contract is quoted and open at 50c.
- An early Georgia lead can create short fields, defensive scores, or Arkansas garbage-time points that break the under.
- Georgia Bulldogs 1st-half winner+14%Won
Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Three-way ladder sanity check: UGA 87.5¢, Arkansas 8.5¢, tie 4.5¢; normalized UGA is 87.1%.
- Georgia averages 0.55 offensive EPA/play, 61.5% success and 24.6% explosiveness through two games; Arkansas: -0.03, 45.4%, 8.6%.
- Pinnacle full-game pricing and DK first-half pricing corroborate the direction; the 4.0-point raised bar is cleared.
- Only two games per team; opponent adjustment and first-half distribution estimates are thin.
- Georgia Bulldogs over 39.5 team points+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta: +0.33/play (Georgia offense 0.55 minus Arkansas defensive EPA allowed 0.23).
- Only two 2026 games drive the offense and red-zone samples; the partial tier can overstate 12 touchdowns on 13 trips.
- Gunner Stockton over 2.5 passing touchdowns−100%Lost
Taken at +152 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +152 implies 39.7%; my last-10 appearance model reaches 60.0%, a 20.3-point margin.
- Stockton cleared 2.5 passing touchdowns in 2 of his first 2 games this season: 5 and 3.
- The prior-10-game sample also includes four games with 3+ passing touchdowns.
- The 60% rate is exactly the brief's threshold and is a small, opponent-mixed sample.
- Game total under 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under is deeper behind the quote: $3,533 depth versus Over's $2,948; ratio 1.20x.
- Raw ladder: Under 3 book levels versus Over 3; two of three measures agree. Directional check: backing Under 55.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so this is not a three-measure read.
- Georgia Bulldogs 1H spread over 9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- cfb_predictor gives Georgia a +27.21 full-game margin; half-game mean is +13.61.
- Pinnacle's Georgia -24.5 full-game spread implies a 12.25 half-game mean; the same variance scaling yields NO near 43%, agreeing directionally.
- the adjacent 10.5 rung prices NO at 37¢, consistent with a lower-rung NO position; this is not treated as independent evidence.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Georgia's opponents were Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, while Arkansas faced North Alabama and Utah.
Show all 8 picks
- Georgia Bulldogs spread −24.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected margin is 27.21 points, 2.71 above the DraftKings spread.
- Georgia's two-game 2026 averages: +0.55 offensive EPA/play and -0.15 defensive EPA allowed/play; Arkansas: -0.03 and +0.07.
- Gunner Stockton is confirmed for Georgia; his 2026 line is 436 passing yards, 8 TD and 0 INT, versus KJ Jackson's 315 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT.
- The model edge barely clears the 4-point gate; margin variance is large and dominates a small advantage.
- 1H total over 28.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Georgia averaged 4.49 points/drive and Arkansas 1.65 across the 2026 two-game window; combined offensive pace was 30.31/28.35 seconds per play.
- The two-game first-half scoring share was 60.1% (52 of 94, then 52 of 80), implying a specific 20.3% uplift over an even split and a 32.8-point 1H projection.
- PROE averaged +0.13 for Georgia and +0.17 for Arkansas; explosive rates were .246 and .086, supporting aggressive scripted opening possessions.
- Only two games per team; the 60.1% first-half share is heavily influenced by Georgia's 63-3 and 70-20 blowouts.
Questions
Who won Georgia vs. Arkansas?
Georgia won 45-17 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.